Project on the 

Forced Displaced:

I must leave my home or I must die. This is reality for 117.3 million people, as of 2023’s end – a number over three times the size of California’s population. War, violence, climate change and political/social persecution have no regard for where lives are planted and grown. Peace treaties may be reached, bombs may quiet, dictators may be dethroned, but the displaced live on in a world that seemingly has no place for them. As conflicts fracture communities and countries alike, their numbers only continue to grow.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees outlines forced displacement trends in a report that implores the international community to mobilize. The past three years have presented a doubling of the average annual number of those fleeing conflict. Naturally, it is clear that this is a result of intensified global hostilities. From Sudan to Gaza, violence in the past year has brought death to over 150,000, and displacement to nearly 40 million.

Where is home for the displaced? Violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has stripped over 6 million Sudanese people of stability and security. In addition to the 6 million who have fled to other areas of Sudan, 1.5 million have left their home country altogether. This conflict is affecting not only those who call Sudan home, but those who call it refuge. One million refugees from South Sudan and Eritrea, among others, are now displaced within their nation of asylum. Expulsion by bloodshed has become the only constant for those who, by chance, have become pawns to political violence.

2 million people and 141 square feet of land. Gaza is approximately the same size as Philadelphia, with around 500,000 more people, as of 2020. Between October and December of 2023, over 75 percent of the Gazan population has been internally displaced – for many, multiple times. Conflict in the Gaza Strip has placed all of its inhabitants in the unforgiving path of acute food insecurity. In such a dense area, with starvation and violence around every corner, leaving home is no guarantee of safety – rather, a continuation of the same horrors.

The violence following a military takeover in February 2021 has internally displaced over 2.6 million citizens of Myanmar since. Another 1.3 million, mostly those of the stateless Rohingya group, have been forced to rely on humanitarian aid in Bangladesh or gamble their lives on the rough sea routes to Indonesia or Malaysia. Nearly 2,000 miles away, 10.9 million Afghans have sought refuge and food either within Afghanistan or neighboring countries. 

Conflict and climate disasters have displaced 3.9 millions Somalians within the country. War in Ukraine has uprooted 9.7 million Ukrainians, with one-sixth of the population fleeing the country entirely. Whether caused by internal fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, gang violence in Haiti, or civil war in Syria, forced displacement has changed the lives of millions, yet failed to fully enter the international community’s collective consciousness.

What can global actors do with their awareness, then? For the 42 percent of the displaced who leave their home countries, the UNHCR emphasizes a routes-based approach, which requires more detailed data on asylum routes and the protections needed. Investment and strategy is necessary to support the countries receiving refugees, increase refugees’ capacity for self-reliance, and create stable and sustainable conditions for return. 

This year, 1.2 million refugees either returned to their country of origin, became citizens of their host country, or resettled in a third country. However, this cannot be considered a unilateral success. People are either returning home to continued violence or staying in countries with limited available opportunities and services. Thus, it is imperative to stabilize conflict in home countries and increase capacity in host countries. There must also be coordinated humanitarian efforts to safeguard refugees from violence and danger throughout their routes by offering calculated protection services; these must be grounded in data respective to the specific route. Lives cannot be rebuilt anywhere when they are threatened in travel.

Despite the varied circumstances that create displacement, 73 percent of the world’s refugees originate from five countries: Afghanistan, Syria, South Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Most people seek asylum in neighboring countries, but overall, it is lower-income countries who host the largest refugee communities. Countries that hold most of the world’s wealth only hosted 25 percent of refugees in the past year.

This is clearly a global humanitarian crisis, but in a world divided by state borders, who is responsible for those who live on its margins? Currently, countries are not taking on a level of responsibility proportionate to their capacity. Economic resources are crucial to providing sustainable resources and opportunities to refugees; yet, 80 percent of the global refugee population is hosted by countries that altogether amass less than 20 percent of global income.

Although no one is immune to becoming a victim to war and violence, the refugee crisis does highlight and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. As previously mentioned, there is an unequal distribution of the nations both producing and receiving internally and externally displaced people. Poverty and structural issues are often a cause and effect of violence, as well as a barrier to capacity building. To the same extent, climate change presents a multi-dimensional challenge to the forcibly displaced. Disasters displace, impoverish, and capitalize upon already-fragile communities.

Humankind and nature alike have destabilized (and destroyed) home for 117.3 million people – as long as war and climate change escalates, this number will inflate. How can the international community push back? Effective responses involve working toward a durable, sustainable solution. Whether the displaced return to their home country/town, repatriate in their host country, or resettle in a third country, these pathways necessitate inter-state cooperation and communication, as well as analysis on individual, community, and national capacity.

Through data and trend surveillance, steps can be taken towards a future where home is a place of safe return. 

Summary by Peyton Davis

Global trends report 2023. UNHCR. (n.d.). https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends-report-2023