Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 14 information operation about Russia’s supposed “willingness to negotiate” on extreme terms tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation is succeeding in confusing the purpose of the Ukrainian-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15. The purpose of the summit, according to the Ukrainian President’s Office, was to facilitate a multilateral dialogue to achieve “fair peace … based on the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law.” Putin‘s information operation on June 14 sought to and partially succeeded in sabotaging the summit by refocusing the international conversation to Russia’s absence at the summit, instead of allowing the summit’s participants to proceed with the intended purpose of garnering international support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s efforts to involve the broader international community in ending the war. Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak stated before the summit opened on June 15 that Ukraine and its international partners can give a joint peace plan to a Russian representative at a second peace summit if a Russian representative attends.
Putin specifically outlined his demands for “peace” negotiations in Ukraine a day before the start of the Global Peace Summit to undermine Western support for legitimate Ukrainian demands from Russia and divert attention away from the task of building an international consensus around how to ensure that Russia’s illegal war of aggression does not result in an unjust Russian victory. Putin’s restated prerequisites for “peace” negotiations included the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory and Ukraine’s agreement to demilitarization, “denazification” (the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and its replacement with pro-Russian proxies), and Ukraine’s agreement to abandon efforts to join any external security blocs — the same demands that he made prior to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 and that he has consistently reiterated throughout the war. Putin‘s overture that he is open to any kind of “negotiations“ not predicated on what is effectively Ukraine’s unconditional surrender is therefore inherently misleading. Putin’s duplicitous statements about his supposed “willingness to negotiate” thus reoriented international discourse to highlight how Putin — who is not interested in upholding the principles of the UN Charter in his war of conquest in Ukraine — was not invited to the conference, and how Putin’s absence at the summit presented some kind of intrinsic paradox. It did not.
Key Takeaways:
- Several senior Western officials made statements at the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland that inadvertently play into ongoing Russian information operations falsely portraying Russia as interested in legitimate and good faith negotiations, likely in part due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to undermine the summit through his carefully planned restatement of his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation on June 14.
- Kremlin mouthpieces amplified ongoing Russian information operations intended to discredit and disrupt the Global Peace Summit.
- Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk reported that Western military assistance has begun to arrive in Ukraine, but that Western military assistance will likely not arrive at scale and significantly impact the frontline situation for several more weeks to months.
- Chairperson of the ruling United Russia Party Dmitry Medvedev officially replaced United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak with acting Russian Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Ural Federal District Vladimir Yakushev.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a group of trusted and Kremlin-affiliated “veterans” to assume government roles likely in an attempt to appease Russian servicemen and domestic supporters of the war in Ukraine.
- The Swedish military announced on June 15 that a Russian Su-24 tactical fighter-bomber plane temporarily violated Swedish airspace east of the southern tip of Gotland on June 14, likely as part of an effort to discourage European states from participating in NATO and other international institutions supporting Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk and Avdiivka.
- Elements of the Russian Baltic and Pacific fleets are participating separate naval exercises.
- A Financial Times (FT) investigation published on June 12 found that Russian officials have put Ukrainian children up for adoption whom Russia had forcibly deported from occupied Ukraine to Russia in 2022.
For full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-15-2024