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August 5, 2024

Institute for the study of War:  Ukraine drones destroy SU-34 bomber in Rostov airfield

Institute for the Study of War

Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD’s Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5. Russian law enforcement told Kremlin newswire TASS that they suspect Akhmedov and Shesterov of embezzling over 40 million rubles (roughly $471,000) during public procurement for the park and warned that there may be additional defendants in the case. Patriot Park was reportedly the personal project of former Russian Defense Minister and current Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, and recently detained former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov reportedly oversaw construction of the park. A Russian milblogger who is particularly critical of the Russian military command praised Akhmedov’s and Shesterov’s arrests and claimed that Akhmedov and Shesterov were part of the “old team” that controlled the Russian MoD under Shoigu’s leadership, suggesting that their arrests are “indicative” of Shoigu’s diminishing influence. A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD suggested that recently dismissed former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov, who is reportedly involved with Russia’s National Defense Control Center, could be the next high-ranking MoD official to be arrested. Russian officials have arrested several senior Russian defense officials since April 2024 on similar corruption charges. Russian milbloggers previously theorized that the arrests of Ivanov and other high-ranking defense officials affiliated with Shoigu could be indicative of Shoigu’s declining influence within the Kremlin, as well as the Kremlin’s desire to “clean house” of Shoigu’s old guard affiliates under the Russian MoD’s new leadership.

A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD’s Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Shestakov as head of the MoD’s Main Armored Directorate days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Shestakov is responsible for the MoD’s efforts to plan and mobilize Russia’s production of armored vehicles. ISW cannot confirm this potential command change at this time.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD’s Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.
  • A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD’s Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.
  • Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.
  • Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.
  • Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.

  • Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
  • The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.

For full report:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5-2024 

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