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August 23, 2024

Institute for the Study of War: U.S. government still unclear about Ukraine’s strategic goal in Russia’s Kursk region

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23. Geolocated footage published on August 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced further in southern Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha). A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced north of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha) along the Sudzha-Sukhodolovka R-200 highway. Russian sources claimed that there are conflicting reports about fighting east of Sudzha near Samoryadovo and Kozyrevka, but that Ukrainian mobile groups may be operating in the area. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces re-took Spalnoye and Krupets (both southeast of Sudzha), although the situation in the area remains unclear. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled a platoon-sized Ukrainian mechanized assault near Aleksandrovka (northeast of Korenevo). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces re-took positions west of Korenevo on August 23, suggesting that Ukrainian forces were recently operating west of the settlement. Russian sources claimed that fighting continued throughout the line of contact in Kursk Oblast on August 22 and 23.

Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated on August 22 that the US is gaining “a better understanding” of Ukraine’s goals in Kursk Oblast and noted that Ukraine wants to create a buffer zone in Kursk Oblast. Singh stated that the US is still working to determine how the buffer zone fits into Ukraine’s strategic objectives and that the US continues to provide materiel to support Ukraine’s battlefield needs. Singh clarified that current US restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian border areas allows Ukrainian forces to engage in counterfire while defending against Russian attacks across the international border, including in Kursk Oblast.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23.
  • Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukrainian forces can leverage tactical and technological advantages to offset Russian materiel advantages.
  • US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on August 23.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another drone strike against the oil depot in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast on August 23.
  • Islamic State (IS)-affiliated inmates took prison employees and other inmates hostage at a penal colony in Surovikino, Volgograd Oblast on August 23.
  • Russian milbloggers reacted to the hostage crisis with criticisms of the Russian prison system and migration policy.
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed India’s support for peace in Ukraine on the basis of India’s participation in Ukraine’s July 2024 peace summit and signed several bilateral cooperation agreements during a visit to Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

  • Russian authorities continue efforts to leverage conscripts to free up manpower elsewhere for combat operations in Ukraine.

For full report:  

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2024 

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Wilson Center

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