November 5, 2024

Institute for the Study of War: Russian forces advance in eight areas of Donbas

Institute for the Study of War

The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated in an interview with South Korean national broadcaster KBS on November 5 that Ukrainian forces engaged in “small-scale” clashes with North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast but emphasized that it will take more time for the entire contingent of North Korean forces to deploy to Kursk Oblast and enter combat.[1] A source in Ukraine’s special services also told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that the first combat clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean forces have occurred but stated that these are not “large connections” between Ukrainian and North Korean forces.[2] Umerov noted that it would be difficult for Ukrainian forces to quickly ascertain North Korean casualty counts from the initial fighting because North Korean soldiers have been “mixed in” with the Russian army and are “disguised” as soldiers from the Republic of Buryatia, which notably suggests that the Russian military is trying to integrate North Korean combat power into the Russian force structure, as opposed to maintaining separate North Korean units fighting under Russian command.[3] North Korean force structure under Russia’s command remains unclear, however. Umerov forecasted that more North Korean personnel will finish deploying within a few weeks once they complete training in the Russian Far East.[4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated on November 4 that there are already 11,000 North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast, although the majority of this number is likely not yet on the frontline.[5] ISW continues to assess that Russia will likely leverage North Korean manpower to first and foremost repel the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, and that in return North Korean troops hope to gain combat and military-technical experience in the conditions for a contemporary and technologically driven war.[6]

The Kremlin appointed the first-ever “Time of Heroes” program participant to a federal-level position, furthering its ongoing effort to staff government positions with pro-war veterans and set long-term conditions for the militarization of Russian government bodies from local to federal levels. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on November 4 appointing Yevgeny Pervyshov as Acting Head of Tambov Oblast.[7] Pervyshov is a veteran of the war in Ukraine and an alumnus of the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program and is the first veteran of the war in Ukraine to hold the position of head of a Russian federal subject.[8] ISW previously reported that Putin met with Pervyshov during a “Time of Heroes” meeting on June 14, during which Pervyshov told Putin that he believes that “Time of Heroes” participants and alumni like himself would make effective government officials and emphasized his personal political experience as a State Duma Deputy and former mayor of Krasnodar City.[9] Putin offered Pervyshov a job as a regional head in response.[10] Pervyshov previously fought in the “Grom-Kaskad” unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Brigade, formerly part of the (now-disbanded) BARS “Kaskad” Battalion that formed in 2017 as part of the Donetsk People’s Republic Ministry of Internal Affairs (DNR MVD).[11] Putin also notably appointed Maria Kostyuk, the head of the “Time of Heroes” program whose son died fighting in Ukraine in August 2022, to the position of acting governor of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast.[12] Putin’s appointments of Pervyshov and Kostyuk support ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin is using the “Time of Heroes” program to cultivate a cadre of loyal pro-war veterans who will assume government roles to appease the Russian servicemembers who make up one of Putin’s core constituencies, to boost domestic support for the war, and militarize Russian local and federal government in the medium to long-term.[13]

Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites into orbit on November 5 via a Russian space-launch vehicle, furthering a trend of Russian-Iranian bilateral space cooperation.[14] The Russian Soyuz 2.1b launch vehicle took off from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast on the morning of November 5, launching 53 satellites into a 500-kilometer-heigh orbit. Iranian media reported that the launch included the Iranian “Kousar” and “Hodhod” satellites.[15] The “Kousar” satellite is reportedly a high-resolution sensing satellite that images the Earth’s surface for agricultural, natural resource management, and environmental purposes, whereas the “Hodhod” satellite is designed to create satellite communications and Internet of Things (IoT) networks to enable communications with hard-to-reach areas.[16] A private Iranian company — Omid Faza — built and designed the satellites.[17] Russia previously launched the Iranian “Khayyam” (alternatively referred to as the Kanopus-V) remote-sensing satellite and the Pars-1 research satellite into orbit in August 2022 and February 2024, respectively.[18] ISW-CTP previously assessed that Iran may leverage these satellites to enable long-range targeting capabilities for attacks abroad.[19] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger hailed the “Kousar” and “Hodhod” launches as the latest example of “growing bilateral cooperation” between Russia and Iran in the space sector.[20]

Key Takeaways:

  • The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • The Kremlin appointed the first-ever “Time of Heroes” program participant to a federal-level position, furthering its ongoing effort to staff government positions with pro-war veterans and set long-term conditions for the militarization of Russian government bodies from local to federal levels.
  • Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites into orbit on November 5 via a Russian space-launch vehicle, furthering a trend of Russian-Iranian bilateral space cooperation.
  • Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne.
  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.
  • The Russian military is struggling to maintain a sufficient number of quality personnel within traditionally elite forces.
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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.