Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered. Reuters reported on March 9 that two US officials stated that the US is planning to use the March 11 US-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia “in part to determine whether Ukraine is willing to make material concessions to Russia to end the war.”[1] One US official stated that Ukraine cannot say both “I want peace” and “I refuse to compromise on anything” at the upcoming talks. The other US official stated that the US wants “to see if the Ukrainians are interested not just in peace, but in a realistic [emphasis added] peace.” The Financial Times reported on March 9 that unspecified officials briefed on the upcoming US-Ukrainian negotiations stated that Ukraine will propose a partial ceasefire with Russia for long-range drone and missile strikes and combat operations in the Black Sea.[2]Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on March 10 that a source familiar with the Ukrainian delegation’s position stated that Ukraine will also propose a prisoner of war (POW) exchange.[3] The Ukrainian source noted that these proposals are “realistic to implement quickly” and to “control.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky first suggested a ceasefire in the air and sea on March 5, and Ukraine is offering the kind of ceasefires that are more straightforward and do not require extended negotiations or a complex monitoring process.[4] A ceasefire along the thousand kilometers of complex front line characterized by multiple “gray zones” where the lines of opposing forces are blurred would be extremely difficult to negotiate and monitor. Zelensky has also indicated several times — including in his February 28 Fox News interview — that he is willing to make concessions on territory, Ukraine’s NATO membership, and his own tenure in office in order to secure a just and sustainable peace.[5]
Russian officials, in contrast, continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2021 and 2022 demands. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an interview to “New Regions of Russia” magazine published on March 10 that any future peace settlement must “eradicate” the “root causes” of the war.[6] Lavrov defined the “root causes” of the war as the alleged “threats to Russia’s security from the Ukrainian and Western directions in general” that are due to NATO’s eastward expansion and the Ukrainian government’s alleged “extermination” of everything that is “connected with Russia and the Russian World [Russkiy Mir],” including Russian language, culture, Orthodoxy, and media. Lavrov similarly defined the alleged “root causes” of the war in late December 2024, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric on this topic has not changed in the over two months, even after the start of US-Russian bilateral talks in February 2024.[7] Russia’s repeated rhetoric about the “root causes” of the war and constant reiteration of its specific unchanged demands contrast sharply with the flexibility Ukraine has shown.[8]
Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration’s statements and actions in an attempt to divide the United States and Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in an interview to the “New Regions of Russia” magazine published on March 10 that US and Russian diplomats voted the same way for the first time in three years against the Ukrainian- and European-backed United Nations (UN) resolution on February 24.[9] This resolution commemorated the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in Ukraine, and supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.[10] Lavrov claimed that the “ultraliberal ruling elites of the West,” support Ukraine and that European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) maintain “predatory, colonial habits.” Lavrov notably did not mention the United States, likely in an attempt to drive a perceived ideological wedge between the United States and Europe. Lavrov’s use of the “ruling elites” narrative echoes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 27 claim that “some Western elites” are trying to “maintain instability” in the world and will try to “disrupt or compromise” the US–Russian dialogue that has begun.[11] Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on March 10 that the UK government is prioritizing “undermining Trump’s peace efforts” and has tasked non-governmental organizations with “demonizing” Trump.[12] The SVR notably made such claims ahead of the UK’s hosting of a virtual meeting on March 15 with mainly European and British commonwealth countries to support a ceasefire agreement.[13] Russian officials are likely attempting to leverage Trump administration statements and actions to divide the United States and Europe and will likely continue such efforts to secure maximum concessions on Ukraine from the US, Europe, and Ukraine as well as to fracture the US-Europe relationship to Russia’s benefit.[14]
Key Takeaways:
- Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered.
- Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration’s statements and actions in an attempt to divide the United States and Europe.
- Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and likely preparing to attack Sudzha in the coming days.
- Ukraine continues to expand its domestic production of drones and air defense systems to support its war effort.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a list on March 10 of instructions for the Russian government and the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation aimed at increasing social benefits to Russian veterans, which will likely put further strain on the Russian budget and economy.