Institute for the Study of War: U.S. tells Russia no economic deal without cease-fire in Ukraine
The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin’s rejection of such a ceasefire. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump made it “very clear” that US-Russian economic partnerships could be an incentive for Russia to end its war against Ukraine, but that the United States “needs to see a ceasefire first” — likely in reference to a temporary or permanent full ceasefire in Ukraine.[1] The Trump administration has previously characterized a temporary full ceasefire as a “necessary step” toward achieving an enduring peace settlement in Ukraine.[2] Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the joint US-Ukrainian 30-day full ceasefire proposal when Trump called Putin on March 18, and senior Russian officials have reiterated Putin’s rejection since then by attempting to deflect blame onto Ukraine and secure additional bilateral concessions from the United States.[3] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on April 16 that Ukraine’s decision to extend martial law and continue general mobilization until August 6, 2025 is an attempt to preserve Ukraine’s “unstable structure” and implied that Ukraine’s ban on negotiations with Russia is inhibiting progress towards ending the war.[4] The Ukrainian government is legally prohibited from lifting martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine, however. Russian authorities also appear to be intensifying their recruitment efforts, suggesting that the Kremlin intends to sustain its current force generation efforts for some time, peace talks notwithstanding.[5] The Kremlin is continuing efforts to blame Ukraine for the lack of progress towards Trump’s desired full ceasefire. Ukraine has already agreed to Trump’s temporary full ceasefire proposal, while Kremlin officials have consistently reiterated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s non-negotiable demands for regime change in Ukraine, extensive territorial concessions, and limitations on Ukraine’s military that would render Ukraine defenseless as conditions must be met before Russia can agree to a future ceasefire.[6]
Russia is reportedly heavily dependent on North Korean artillery ammunition as North Korea continues to learn lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine. Reuters published a joint investigation with UK-based research organization Open Source Center (OSC) on April 15 detailing the extent of Russia’s dependence on North Korean artillery and the evolution of North Korean forces’ participation in fighting alongside Russian forces.[7] Reuters and the OSC tracked 64 shipments from North Korea to Russia from September 2023 to March 2025 that involved 16,000 containers carrying millions of North Korean artillery rounds and recorded a shipment from North Korea as recently as March 17, 2025. Reuters and the OSC reported that four Russian-flagged ships — the Angara, Maria, Maia-1, and Lady R cargo ships — transported the ammunition from North Korea’s port of Rajin to the Russian ports of Vostochny and Dunai. Reuters reviewed Russian military documents of everyday Russian artillery usage that showed that some Russian units depended on North Korean artillery shells for half or more of their shells used in daily fire missions. Reuters reported that an unspecified Russian unit fighting in Zaporizhia Oblast reported that nearly 50 percent of its 152mm D-20 howitzer rounds and 100 percent of its 122mm rockets fired came from North Korea. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told Reuters that North Korea has provided Russia with three million artillery rounds and an unspecified number of mortar rounds since mid-2023 and that half of all of Russia’s artillery rounds come from North Korea. The GUR also stated that North Korea supplied Russia with 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles as of January 2025.
Ukrainian military commanders and intelligence continue to indicate that North Korean forces have innovated their training and battlefield tactics following their participation in Russia’s war. A Ukrainian regimental commander fighting in Kursk Oblast told Reuters that 3,000 additional North Korean forces that arrived in Kursk Oblast in mid-February 2025 were better prepared and more “adapted to modern combat” than the original contingent of North Korean forces that began fighting alongside Russian forces in November 2024.[8] GUR Spokesperson Andriy Chernyak stated on April 15 that North Korean forces have changed tactics from conducting assaults in large groups to attacking in groups of one or two people, have learned drone and electronic warfare (EW) tactics, and are successfully using Russian weapons and tactics on the battlefield.[9] Chernyak indicated that Russian and North Korean forces are somewhat compensating for language barriers that were causing friction during combat operations, as North Korean forces now receive orders and conduct assaults without communicating with Russian units.
Key Takeaways:
- The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin’s rejection of such a ceasefire.
- Russia is reportedly heavily dependent on North Korean artillery ammunition as North Korea continues to learn lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Russian authorities recently detained former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov, likely as part of the Kremlin efforts to scapegoat Kursk Oblast officials for their failure in responding to Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
- Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces recently executed at least one unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) near Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka).
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian General Staff: About 1,050 Russian casualties in the past day
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 16.04.25:
personnel: about 936 210 (+1 050) persons
tanks: 10 638 (+9)
troop-carrying AFVs: 22 163 (+13)
artillery systems: 26 377 (+87)
MLRS: 1 364 (+0)
anti-aircraft systems: 1 132 (+0)
aircraft: 370 (+0)
helicopters: 335 (+0)
UAVs operational-tactical level: 32 837 (+146)
cruise missiles: 3 145(+0)
warships/boats: 28 (+0)
submarines: 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks: 44 472 (+133)
special equipment: 3 804 (+3)
Russian Ministry of Defense: up to 1,185 Ukrainian casualties in the past day
Federation continue the special military operation.
In Belgorod direction, the Sever Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of two mechanised brigades, a coastal defence brigade, an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the three territorial defence brigades close to Miropolskoye, Prokhody, Okop, Taratutino, Stepok, and Ugroyedy (Sumy region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 65 troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, and four field artillery guns. One ammunition depot, a radar, and an electronic warfare station were neutralised.
The Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, defeated formations of two mechanised brigades, an assault brigade, a jaeger brigade, a mountain assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and a territorial defence brigade close to Andreyevka, Zapadnoye, Druzhelyubovka, Olgovka, Kovsharovka (Kharkov region), Kirovsk, Yampol, Karpovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Novoyegorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy lost up to 230 troops, a tank, a U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, and a U.S.-made HMMWV armoured vehicle, six motor vehicles, five field artillery guns including a UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer. Five ammunition depots were eliminated.
The Yug Group of Forces has liberated Kalinovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The Russian troops hit manpower and materiel of seven mechanised brigades, two assault brigades of the AFU, and two territorial defence brigades near Pleshcheyevka, Romanovka, Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka, Poltavka, Zarya, Ivanopolye, Minkovka, and Kleban Byk of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The AFU losses amounted to more than 310 troops, two tanks, a HMMWV armoured fighting vehicle, and a U.S.-made Stryker armoured personnel carrier as well as a Kozak armoured fighting vehicle. Five pick-up trucks, five field artillery guns, and an electronic warfare station were neutralised.
The Tsentr Group of Forces captured more advantageous lines and positions, defeated formations of five mechanised brigades, two assault brigades, three jaeger brigades, an unmanned aerial vehicles brigade, an assault regiment of the AFU, a marine brigade, and two national guard brigades close to Ulyanovka, Razino, Koptevo, Alekseyevka, Zverevo, Uspenovka, Kotlino, Krasnoarmeysk, Shevchenko, Dimitrov, Grodovka, and Mirolyubovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 350 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, four motor vehicles, and a French-made 155-mm Caesar self-propelled artillery system. A U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-fire station, the Plastun electronic signal intelligence station, a Nota electronic warfare station as well as a Finnish-made Airfence radar were eliminated.
The Vostok Group of Forces continued advancing into the depths of the enemy’s defence, inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of an airmobile brigade, a mountain assault brigade, a jaeger brigade, an air assault brigade, two territorial defence brigades, and a national guard brigade near Zeleny Kut, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Poddubnoye, Shevchenko, Novopol, Dneproenergiya of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Gulay Pole, and Chervonoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 150 troops, an armoured personnel carrier, a counterobstacle vehicle, a recovery vehicle, four motor vehicles, and three field artillery guns. One fuel depot was destroyed.
The Dnepr Group of Forces’ units improved the tactical situation. Russian units engaged three mechanised brigades, a mountain assault brigade, two coastal defence brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and two territorial defence brigades near Tomarino, Ponyatovka, Antonovka, Nikolskoye (Kherson region), Novodanilovka, and Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy’s losses amounted to over 80 troops, 12 motor vehicles, three artillery guns including a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system. One ammunition depot was destroyed.
Operational-Tactical aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops, and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged the infrastructure of the military airfield, the assembly area of uncrewed surface vehicles, the ammunition and armoured vehicles repair enterprise of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as well as temporary deployment areas of the Ukrainian armed formations in 139 areas.
Russian air defence means have destroyed 11 JDAM guided bombs and four HIMARS MLRS projectiles as well as 223 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation the AFU lost:
661 aircraft,
283 helicopters,
52,089 unmanned aerial vehicles,
601 anti-aircraft missile systems,
22,859 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles,
1,536 MLRS combat vehicles,
23,718 field artillery guns and mortars,
34,172 units of support military vehicles.