Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) news agency ArmyInform reported on June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day, of whom nearly 975 are killed in action (KIA) – a much higher number of killed than the standard one-to-three KIA-to-wounded-in-action (WIA) ratio.[1] The NATO official noted that Russian forces suffered approximately 160,000 casualties from January to April 2025 and that Russian losses remain high despite a slight decrease in May 2025 “due to a slowdown in the pace of hostilities.” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on May 13 that Russian forces suffered about 177,000 casualties since January 1, 2025 (an average daily casualty rate of 1,351).[2] This daily casualty rate is lower than the record high average daily casualty rate of 1,523 that Russian forces reportedly suffered in November 2024, but Russian forces are still expending quantities of manpower that are disproportionate to their marginal territorial gains.[3] Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa stated on June 4 that Russia seized only 0.4 percent of Ukraine’s total territory in 2024 and just 0.2 percent thus far in 2025, which is largely consistent with ISW’s assessment of Russian advances in 2024 and 2025, respectively.[4] Palisa stated that Russia is suffering roughly 167 casualties per square kilometer of advance. ISW continues to assess that Russia’s disproportionately large manpower and materiel losses for marginal territorial gains across the theater are unsustainable in the medium-term and unlikely to result in significant and rapid gains.[5]
The Kremlin continues efforts to falsely portray Russia as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, despite Russia’s repeated refusal to offer any concessions. Russian President Vladimir Putin used his first phone call to Pope Leo XIV on June 5 to falsely claim that Ukraine is escalating the war, whereas Russia is interested in achieving a resolution to the war in Ukraine through “political and diplomatic means.”[6] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on June 5 that Putin thanked the Pope for the Vatican’s willingness to contribute to a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine.[7] Putin notably did not propose any Russian concessions or indicate that the Kremlin has relented any of its demands of Ukraine that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation. The Kremlin readout claimed that Putin instead told the Pope that any potential resolution must eliminate the war’s “root causes,” reiterating a long-standing Kremlin rhetorical line aimed at falsely blaming Ukraine for Russia’s invasion. Senior Russian officials have repeatedly defined these root causes as NATO’s alleged violation of obligations not to expand eastward and Ukraine’s alleged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine.[8] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev notably claimed on June 3 that Russia seeks a ”swift victory” in Ukraine and the ”complete destruction” of Ukraine’s government, indicating that the Kremlin remains uninterested in good faith peace negotiations and a near-term resolution to the war that does not acquiesce to its demands.[9] Putin’s conversation with the Pope is likely part of the Kremlin’s ongoing effort to protract negotiations by falsely portraying Russia as interested in meaningful peace negotiations and improve Russia’s negotiating position by making additional battlefield gains.
Ukraine’s allies and partners continued to provide military aid to Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on June 4 and 5. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated on June 4 that the Netherlands will allocate a package worth 400 million euros (roughly $457 million) to strengthen Ukraine’s military security.[10] The package will consist of more than 100 vessels, including patrol boats, transport boats, interceptors, and special operations ships; more than 50 naval drones; weapons systems; sensors; spare parts; and training for Ukrainian specialists. Luxembourg’s Defense Minister Yuriko Backes stated on June 5 that Luxembourg will increase its military aid to Ukraine by 50 percent by the end of 2025.[11] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on June 4 that Belgium announced a long-term initiative to provide annual aid in the amount of one billion euros (roughly $1.1 billion) until 2029 and that Belgium will transfer a mine-clearing ship to Ukraine.[12] Umerov stated that Canada allocated $45 million for drones, electronic warfare (EW) equipment, IT solutions, and an unspecified number of Bison and Coyote armored personnel carriers (APCs).[13] Umerov stated that Norway will allocate $7 billion worth of aid to Ukraine in 2025, including $700 million for drones, with a focus on supporting the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB), and $50 million to the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) Trust Fund.[14] Umerov stated that Belgium, Sweden, Italy, Turkey, and Estonia joined the EW Coalition, and Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson stated that Sweden will co-chair the coalition with Germany.[15] Umerov stated on June 5 that Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Norway, and Iceland will initially contribute 428 million euros (roughly $489 million) to develop the “Danish model” in which Ukraine’s partners buy Ukrainian-manufactured weapons for the Ukrainian military and that Ukraine’s partners expect to contribute 1.3 billion euros (roughly $1.5 billion) to the “Danish model” in 2025.[16] Umerov stated that a portion of the funds will come from profits from frozen Russian assets.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains.
- The Kremlin continues efforts to falsely portray Russia as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, despite Russia’s repeated refusal to offer any concessions.
- Ukraine’s allies and partners continued to provide military aid to Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on June 4 and 5.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on June 5 the launch of a new initiative for joint production of Ukrainian weapons in Ramstein states in order to supply weapons to the Ukrainian military and to increase Ramstein states’ industrial capacity.
- North Korea reaffirmed its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine during Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea on June 4.
- Russian authorities cracked down on a publication that has previously speculated about several Russian command changes.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk.