The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 12 that Russian forces have sustained 628,000 casualties since January 2024.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported a breakdown of Russian casualty rates since 2022: Russian forces reportedly sustained 106,720 casualties in 2022 (average of 340 casualties per day); 253,290 casualties in 2023 (average of 693 casualties per day); and 430,790 casualties in 2024 (average of 1,177 casualties per day).[3]
Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces had already sustained over 200,000 casualties in 2025 as of June 4, 2025.[4] Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) news agency ArmyInform reported on June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day.[5] Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa stated on June 4 that Russia is sustaining roughly 167 casualties per square kilometer of advance.[6] The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 11 that Russian forces seized more territory in May 2025 than any other month since the end of 2022.[7] ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized roughly 1,935 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory thus far in 2025 as of June 12, 2025ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command is willfully taking disproportionately large manpower losses for marginal territorial gains across the theater and that these losses are unsustainable in the medium-term and unlikely to result in significant, rapid gains.[8] Russian forces continue to burn through personnel in their ongoing efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; advance in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts; and establish buffer zones in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts[9]
Russian forces recently advanced across the western Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Kurakhove as part of a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on June 11 indicates that Russian forces advanced along the T-0428 Kurakhove-Novopavlivka highway and crossed the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Novoukrainka (northwest of Kurakhove).[10] This advance indicates that Russian forces likely seized Novoukrainka, Zelenyi Kut, Oleksiivka, and Bahatyr (all along the T-0428 highway west and northwest of Kurakhove). Russian milbloggers credited infantry elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) with advancing across the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border near Novoukrainka and claimed that elements of this brigade are also fighting near Zelenyi Kut and Oleksiivka.[11] Milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced further south of Novoukrainka, though ISW has not observed geolocated footage to support this claim.[12] Russian forces are likely attempting to advance toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from at least two directions: from the east along the Novomykolaivka-Novoukrainka line with elements of the Central Grouping of Forces, including from the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 90th Tank Division, and 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both 41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]); and from the south from the Velyka Novosilka direction with elements of the Eastern Grouping of Forces.[13] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on June 11 that unspecified elements of the Eastern Grouping of Forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in an unspecified area, likely in the Velyka Novosilka direction.[14]
The Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB). The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 12 that Ukrainian forces, including elements of the Unmanned Systems Forces, conducted a strike on the night of June 11 to 12 against the Rezonit Plant in the Zubovo Technopark in Zubovo, Moscow Oblast.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that the Rezonit Plant produces navigation systems for artillery systems, printed circuit boards, and other microelectronics necessary for Russian naval weaponry and missiles, including Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander cruise and ballistic missiles, and Lancet and Kub loitering munitions.[22] NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data for June 12 shows satellite-detected heat anomalies in Zubovo, which is consistent with the Ukrainian reports of a strike against the Zubovo Technopark.
Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hosted the fourth Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Odesa City on June 11, which included Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović, Romanian President Nicușor Dan, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov, Croatian President Andrej Plenković, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Albanian Speaker of Parliament Elisa Spiropali, North Macedonian Deputy President Izet Mexhiti, and Slovenian Deputy Prime Minister Tanja Fajon.[27] Most of the participants issued a declaration condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine, and called for continued military, humanitarian, and diplomatic assistance to Ukraine, the full withdrawal of Russian forces and equipment from Ukraine, and Ukrainian membership in NATO and the European Union (EU). Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic notably attended the June 11 summit, marking his first official visit to Ukraine, but did not sign the concluding declaration.[28] Vucic articulated Serbia’s willingness to invest in reconstruction efforts in one or two Ukrainian cities or oblasts.[29] Vucic emphasized that Serbia will continue to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provide humanitarian aid. Russian officials and pro-Kremlin mouthpieces expressed outrage at Vucic’s statements and attendance at the summit and attempted to downplay Vucic’s support of Ukraine by claiming that Vucic only attended the summit due to external pressure.[30] Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Deputy Head Alexei Chepa stated that Vucic’s statements left a “bitter aftertaste” for Russia.[31]
Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with additional financial and materiel support, including air defense systems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 12 that Ukraine secured a three-year agreement to receive an unspecified number of IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany.[32] German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expressed his intent to provide Ukraine with an additional 1.9 billion euros (approximately $2.2 billion) in 2025, including to support Ukraine’s long-range weapon capabilities.[33] Pistorius’ pledge of an additional 1.9 billion euros of support follows the previously agreed upon amount of seven billion euros (approximately $8.1 billion) — bringing German support to a total of nine billion euros (approximately $10.4 billion) should the German Bundestag approve these proposals.
Key Takeaways:
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024.
- Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.
- Russian forces recently advanced across the western Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Kurakhove as part of a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Russian forces are likely attempting to level the frontlines in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- The Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
- Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war (POWs) again on June 12, in accordance with agreements the parties previously reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2.
- Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine.
- Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with additional financial and materiel support, including air defense systems.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove.