Russian officials largely condemned the June 13 Israeli strikes against Iran, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to offer to facilitate negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Putin had separate phone calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 13.[1] The Kremlin claimed that Putin condemned Israel’s strikes as violations of the UN Charter and international law. Putin reportedly stated that Russia supports efforts to resolve the situation about Iran’s nuclear program and noted that Russia has already suggested initiatives aimed at finding a “mutually acceptable agreement.” The Kremlin claimed that Putin emphasized to Netanyahu the importance of returning to the negotiation process and resolving issues about Iran’s nuclear program through political and diplomatic means. Putin reportedly told Netanyahu that Russia is willing to mediate talks between Iran and Israel.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned Israel’s strikes against Iran and notably claimed that “unprovoked military strikes against a sovereign UN member state, its citizens, sleeping peaceful cities, and nuclear energy infrastructure facilities are categorically unacceptable.”[2] The Russian MFA claimed that these Israeli strikes against Iran undermined and set back efforts to find solutions to “eliminate any suspicions and prejudices regarding Iran’s peaceful nuclear energy.” The Russian MFA blamed Western states for provoking anti-Iranian “hysteria” in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), referencing a June 10 resolution that the United States and E3 (United Kingdom, Germany, and France) proposed to declare Iran as noncompliant with its nuclear safeguarding obligations.[3] The Russian MFA issued travel advisories for Russian citizens for Israel and Iran.[4] The Russian Embassy in Iran called on Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Iran to avoid military facilities and refrain from photographing or videoing “any part of Iran,” and the Russian Embassy in Israel called for Russians in Israel to leave the country.[5]
The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and a potential future war with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the June 12 round of government discussions about the Russian State Rearmament Program for 2027-2036 that focused on the modernization and improvement of Russian air defense, space, drone, and robotic systems.[13] Putin claimed that Russia’s air defense systems have downed over 80,000 air targets since February 2022, 7,500 of which Putin claimed were operational-tactical and cruise missiles. Putin claimed that almost all these missiles were Western-manufactured. Putin claimed that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated Russia’s need for a “universal air defense system” capable of intercepting all projectiles regardless of their type. Putin also stated that the State Rearmament Program must focus on developing and proliferating advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) in Russian military systems and equipment and that Russia must develop a group of unspecified spacecraft to increase Russia’s reconnaissance and real-time command and control capabilities. Putin’s statements regarding the need for enhanced Russian air defense systems are likely in part a response to Ukraine’s “Operation Spider Web,” in which Ukrainian forces demonstrated an ability to achieve operational surprise and launch drones against airbases in Russia’s deep rear, highlighting the inability of air defenses in these areas to repel short-range Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone strikes.[14]
It is unclear how Russia intends to finance these large-scale modernization efforts. Russia’s DIB struggled to fulfill domestic and foreign contractual obligations even before the West implemented sanctions against Russia in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[15] Russia is also investing in the modernization and expansion of the Russian Navy and will need to reconstitute the Black Sea Fleet (BSF), which has suffered significant damage from Ukrainian strikes.[16] Increased oil prices as a result of Israeli strikes against Iran may help Russia finance some of these efforts should oil prices remain high in the medium- to long-term. The Kremlin is likely employing lessons learned in Russia’s war against Ukraine to inform adaptations of Russia’s military and preparing Russia’s DIB for a protracted war against Ukraine and a potential confrontation with NATO.[17]
Russia released the bodies of killed in action (KIA) Ukrainian servicemembers to Ukraine on June 13. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) reported on June 13 that Russia returned 1,200 bodies of Ukrainian citizens, a majority of which were military personnel.[18]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian officials largely condemned the June 13 Israeli strikes against Iran, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to offer to facilitate negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
- Oil price increases following Israeli strikes against Iran may increase Russian revenue from oil sales and improve Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and a potential future war with NATO.
- Russia released the bodies of killed in action (KIA) Ukrainian servicemembers to Ukraine on June 13.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.