Russian forces continue to make marginal territorial gains east of Novopavlivka as Russian forces attempt to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward the settlement from three tactical directions. Geolocated footage published on June 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Horikhove (east of Novopavlivka) and likely seized the settlement.[1] An assault detachment commander in the Russian 80th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) told Kremlin newswire TASS on June 14 that the regiment participated in the advance into Horikhove.[2] ISW previously noted that Russian forces are currently engaged in a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Russian forces appear to be attacking from three tactical directions: east, southeast, and south of Novopavlivka.[3] The Russian 41st CAA appears to be the main formation operating east of Novopavlivka.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 80th Tank Regiment also recently advanced west of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka).[5] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 74th and 137th motorized rifle brigades (41st CAA) are also attacking near Kotlyarivka and Muravka (northeast of Novopavlivka) and that additional elements of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade are attacking Horikhove from the north.[6] Russian forces intensified offensive operations southwest of Pokrovsk between Solone and Bohdanivka in the direction of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative boundary in March and April 2025 and recently advanced to the administrative boundary within seven kilometers east of Novopavlivka.[7]
Russian forces also recently advanced into southeasternmost Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, just southeast of Dachne (southeast of Novopavlivka) to support Russian attacks east of the settlement, although Ukrainian forces appear to be counterattacking in the area. Geolocated footage published on June 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Oleksiivka (southeast of Novopavlivka).[8] Elements of the Russian 51st CAA (formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) seized Kurakhove in December 2024, and elements of the 51st CAA and the Eastern Grouping of Forces have slowly advanced west toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative boundary over the last five and a half months.[9] Russian milbloggers recently credited elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) with recently seizing Novoukrainka (west of Oleksiivka) and advancing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[10] Russian forces appear to be attempting to advance along the Kurakhove-Novopavlivka T-0428 highway toward Novopavlivka from the southeast.
Recent Russian advances near Komar (south of Novopavlivka) are also part of Russia’s ongoing offensive aimed at seizing Novopavlivka. Mashovets stated on June 14 that elements of the 36th CAA (Eastern Military District [EMD]) and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) recently seized Fedorivka (south of Komar) and that elements of the Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th CAA, EMD) recently advanced from Odradne and Bahatyr toward Zaporizhzhia (all south of Novopavlivka).[11] Mashovets recently noted that the Russian military command redeployed the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade from the Kursk direction back to the Komar area, underscoring an apparent Russian effort to reinforce the Russian force grouping in this area.[12] Russian sources recently credited elements of the Russian 336th Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltic Fleet) and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th CAA) with seizing Komar, although one Russian milblogger denied that elements of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade participated in the seizure of Komar.[13] Russian forces appear to be attempting to advance north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (southwest of Novopavlivka) along both sides of the Mokri Yaly River north of Velyka Novosilka, as ISW previously assessed.[14]
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia’s defense industrial base. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 14 that Ukrainian forces struck the Nevinnomyssk Azot Plant in Stavropol Krai on the night of June 13 to 14, which is one of the key manufacturers of basic components for Russian explosives, ammunition, and rocket fuel.[15] Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that the Nevinnomyssk Azot plant annually produces up to a million tons of ammonia and over a million tons of ammonium nitrate — a key component for explosives and artillery shells.[16] Kovalenko also noted that the plant synthesizes melamine, acetic acid, methanol, and potassium nitrate — all of which can be used to produce land mines, reactive charges, and grenades. Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov claimed on June 14 that drone debris fell near the industrial zone in Nevinnomyssk.[17] Russian milbloggers posted footage showing a large fire at an industrial zone in Nevinnomyssk on June 14.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces struck several of the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company’s facilities in Samara Oblast on the night of June 13 to 14 and that the facilities produce explosive material components for the Russian military.[19] Kovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuybyshev Catalyst Plant in Samara Oblast, which produces catalysts used for oil refineries that produce aviation and rocket fuel as well as diesel. Kovalenko noted that the plant repurposes catalytic material for fuel, lubricants, and explosives.[20] Ukrainian officials announced that they are assessing the damage in the aftermath of the strikes.
Ukraine and Russia conducted a fourth round of prisoner of war (POWs) exchanges on June 14, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed on June 14 that Russia and Ukraine exchanged an unspecified number of wounded POWs, as well as POWs younger than 25 years of age.[21] Zelensky noted that Russia captured a majority of the exchanged Ukrainian POWs in 2022. Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs reported on June 14 that Russia returned 1,200 bodies of Ukrainian citizens, a majority of which were military personnel.[22] ISW cannot independently verify whether the Ukrainian bodies released by Russia were of those killed in action or in captivity. Zelensky stated that Russia and Ukraine expect to continue conducting exchanges until June 20 or 21.[23]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces continue to make marginal territorial gains east of Novopavlivka as Russian forces attempt to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward the settlement from three tactical directions.
- Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia’s defense industrial base.
- Ukraine and Russia conducted a fourth round of prisoner of war (POWs) exchanges on June 14, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.