Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and all of Ukraine is effectively Russian as part of efforts to justify his continued conquest of Ukraine. Putin answered a question after his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 20 about why Russian forces are advancing beyond the territories in Ukraine that Russia has illegally annexed, claiming that he considers Russian and Ukrainian people to be “one people in reality” and that “Ukraine is [Russia’s].”[1] Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that he does not consider Ukraine as an independent state with its own history, identity, and culture separate from Russia, as evidenced by his 2021 “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” essay and his repeated false assertion that Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians are all part of one historical people.[2]
Putin asserted that Russia will be able to achieve its goals through a protracted war in Ukraine. Putin claimed on June 20 that it would be better for Ukraine to stop fighting because the battlefield and geopolitical situation will only worsen for Ukraine, and that Ukraine will have to negotiate from a weaker position.[4] Putin attempted to posture Russia as interested in engaging in negotiations to end the war, claiming that Russia is not seeking “Ukrainian capitulation,” yet insisted that Ukraine recognize the “realities that have developed on the ground.”[5] Kremlin officials often call for Ukraine to recognize the “realities on the ground” (a reference to the frontline in Ukraine) to allude to the idea that Russia is in a stronger negotiating position given the situation on the battlefield and to demand that Ukraine concede to Russia’s unwavering demands.[6]
Putin’s claim that Ukraine must recognize the “realities on the ground” and should negotiate before the situation worsens also coheres with Putin’s theory of victory, which assesses that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by indefinitely sustaining gradual advances along the frontline despite the high costs of such creeping advances.[7] Putin’s statement ignores that the true “realities on the ground” show a complicated and hotly contested frontline situation in which Russian forces are slowly making marginal advances at the cost of significant manpower and materiel losses in the face of significant Ukrainian drone-based defenses.
Putin and other Kremlin officials are using the guise of “buffer zones” to expand Russia’s territorial demands in Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russian forces are “ending up” in territories beyond the four oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed in accordance with the “logic of military actions,” then recalled the saying “where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is [Russia’s].”[8] Putin stated that he does not rule out Russia seizing Sumy City “in principle” but claimed that Russia is not pursuing this objective at the moment.[9] Putin claimed that Russian actions in northern Sumy Oblast are due to Ukraine’s shelling of Russian border areas. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed on June 19 in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS at SPIEF that a “buffer zone” should be 20 to 30 kilometers deep to protect occupied Luhansk Oblast from Ukrainian fiber optic drone strikes.[10] First Deputy Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev called on June 18 for Russia to create a buffer zone into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast up to the Dnipro River in order to protect occupied Donetsk Oblast from Ukrainian HIMARS strikes.[11]
Kremlin officials previously justified the Russian offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast as an effort to protect Belgorod City from Ukrainian shelling and MLRS strikes.[12] Pasechnik’s and Zhuravlev’s envisioned buffer zones would extend into eastern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts – two oblasts that Russia has not illegally annexed yet. Russian officials have recently made similar calls for Russia to expand its territorial ambitions, asking Putin to seize Sumy City and calling for Russia to take control of the part of the Dnipro River that passes through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[13] Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa also stated on June 5 that Russia likely seeks to create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025 and intends to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River, including eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and all of Kharkiv Oblast, by the end of 2026.[14]
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate that it will not be satisfied with the seizure of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and will use the guise of buffer zones to justify its territorial ambitions beyond these four oblasts.
Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia is increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities. Georgia-based open-source intelligence organization Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported on June 20 that an unnamed “reliable analytical source” stated that Russia’s annual production rate of T-90M tanks was roughly 280 T-90M tanks as of 2024.[33] The CIT noted that Russia has been undertaking systemic efforts to increase tank production since before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and estimated that pre-war production rates and Russia’s transition to a constant production schedule since 2022 have likely allowed Russia’s primary tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod to produce 60 to 70 T-90M new tanks in 2022; 140 to 180 new tanks in 2023; and 250 to 300 new tanks in 2024. The CIT noted that Russia is currently using fewer tanks and armored vehicles on the battlefield in Ukraine and that Russia’s armored vehicle and tank loss rates have been decreasing since late 2024, which is consistent with a recent assessment from a social media source tracking equipment at Russian military depots via satellite imagery.[34] The CIT assessed that Russia will likely be able to maintain its current armor levels throughout the Russian military for “at least several more years,” assuming that Russia’s tank production and consumption rates remain at their current levels.
ISW previously assessed that Russia’s 2023 and 2024 vehicle loss rates were unsustainable in the medium- to long-term, given the limitations of Russia’s defense industrial capacity and Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks.[35] Ongoing Russian efforts to offset and limit tank and armored vehicle losses by increasingly relying on motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and other motorized vehicles may enable Russia to sustain its war effort in Ukraine in the medium term.[36]
Ukraine and Russia conducted the sixth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with the June 2 Istanbul agreements. Ukrainian officials and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Ukraine and Russia exchanged an unspecified number of severely wounded and sick POWs on June 20.[37]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov as Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces on June 19.[38] Shapovalov most recently served as the Ukrainian representative to the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) center in Germany and served as the Commander of Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command in 2024.[39]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and all of Ukraine is effectively Russian as part of efforts to justify his continued conquest of Ukraine.
- Putin asserted that Russia will be able to achieve its goals through a protracted war in Ukraine.
- Putin and other Kremlin officials are using the guise of “buffer zones” to expand Russia’s territorial demands in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin continues to prioritize maintaining the facade of economic stability by pursuing economic policies that will likely exacerbate Russia’s economic instability.
- Putin is attempting to obfuscate the reality that increased investment in Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has come at the cost of Russia’s civilian economic sectors.
- Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia is increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities
- Ukraine and Russia conducted the sixth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with the June 2 Istanbul agreements.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov as Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces on June 19.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.