Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on the night of July 3 to 4, primarily targeting Kyiv City. Russian forces have conducted 10 of the largest strikes in the war since January 2025. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 330 Shahed drones and 209 Shahed-type and other decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched one Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missile from the airspace over Lipetsk Oblast, six Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk Oblast, and four Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk and Voronezh oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed two Iskander-K cruise missiles and 268 drones, and that 208 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that nine missiles and 63 drones struck eight locations throughout Ukraine and that Kyiv City was the primary target of the strikes. The Ukrainian General Staff and the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated that the Russian strikes injured at least 20 people in Kyiv City.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russian strikes injured at least 23 people in total.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential and civilian infrastructure in Kirovohrad, Poltava, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.[4] Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski confirmed that the Russian strike against Kyiv City damaged a consular building at the Polish Embassy.[5] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha reported that the Russian strike against Odesa City damaged the People’s Republic of China (PRC) consulate.[6] Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on July 4 that Ukrainian investigators discovered components manufactured at the Chinese Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing Company in Russian Geran-type drones (Russian analogue of the Iranian Shahed drone) recovered in Kyiv City.[7]
US Patriot air defense systems remain critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian ballistic missile strikes. ISW continues to assess that US aid to Ukraine, particularly Patriot air defense systems and interceptors, is critical to Ukraine’s ability to protect its defense industrial base (DIB), safeguard the capabilities it obtains from its partners in the face of long-range Russian strikes, and defend its civilian population.[8] US-provided air defense systems are vital to Ukraine’s DIB and will support Ukraine’s efforts to increase self-sufficiency and protect civilian lives.
US President Donald Trump acknowledged Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine on July 3 as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate a critical lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine. Trump correctly assessed on July 4 that Putin is “not there” and not “looking to stop” military actions against Ukraine and reiterated his “disappointment” with his July 3 phone call with Putin.[9] Trump stated on July 3 that he did not make any progress “at all” with Putin and that he is “not happy” with Putin.[10] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on July 4 that Putin told Trump that Russia is willing to achieve its objectives for the war against Ukraine through diplomatic negotiations, but will continue military actions, as a diplomatic option that satisfies Russia’s objectives has not yet been presented.[11] Russian forces conducted the largest combined strike of the war thus far on the night of July 3 and 4, following the phone call between Trump and Putin.[12] Putin’s and Peskov’s statements indicate that Russia has not abandoned its original objectives for its war against Ukraine.[13] ISW continues to assess that Russia’s terms – the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which Russia has demanded since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 – amount to demands for regime change, the installation of a pro-Russian proxy government in Ukraine, and significant limitations on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression.[14]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump discussed diplomatic efforts and joint work supporting Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) during a phone call on July 4. Zelensky stated that he spoke with Trump about increased Russian strikes against Ukraine’s civilian population and noted that he and Trump discussed strengthening air defense and increasing protection of Ukrainian airspace.[15] ISW previously reported that Russia is increasingly prioritizing long-range drone and missile production, stockpiling ballistic missiles, and targeting densely populated cities far from the frontline as part of a cognitive warfare effort to weaken Ukrainian resolve and to undermine Western support for Ukraine.[16] Zelensky stated that his and Trump’s teams agreed to meet to discuss enhancing Ukraine’s air defense and protection. Zelensky stated that he and Trump also discussed prospects for joint defense industrial base (DIB) production and the Ukrainian defense industry’s capabilities. Zelensky stated that he advocated for the development of new projects regarding drones and related technologies, and both leaders discussed mutual purchases and investments.
Uk\Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on the night of July 3 to 4, primarily targeting Kyiv City. Russian forces have conducted 10 of the largest strikes in the war since January 2025.
- US Patriot air defense systems remain critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian ballistic missile strikes.
- US President Donald Trump acknowledged Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine on July 3 as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate a critical lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump discussed diplomatic efforts and joint work supporting Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) during a phone call on July 4.
- Ukraine and Russia conducted the eighth prisoner of war (POW) exchange since Ukrainian and Russian officials met in Istanbul and agreed to a series of exchanges on June 2.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Velyka Novosilka.