Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may attempt to advance further toward Dobropillya as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to envelop Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months. Geolocated footage published on July 4 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Koptieve and Shevchenko Pershe and advanced to southeastern Razine (all northeast of Pokrovsk).[1] Russian forces have recently seized on opportunistic advances northeast of Pokrovsk, following their focus on advances along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka T-0504 highway since early 2025.[2] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on June 28 that Russian forces appear to be attacking in the “Dobropillya direction” (northwest of Toretsk and Pokrovsk) and that elements of the Russian 68th Army Corps (AC) (Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 20th and 150th motorized rifle divisions (both of the 8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are attacking in the area.[3] ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command may intend to leverage the Russian salient between Pokrovsk and Toretsk to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast and north or to bypass Ukrainian defenses in Kostyantynivka from the southwest and west.[4]
The Russian units conducting these assaults have been engaged in combat since they redeployed to reinforce the Russian force grouping operating east of Pokrovsk in February and March 2025.[5] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on July 3 that elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC) and 150th Motorized Rifle Division have been operating near Novotoretske (north of Razine) and Novoekonomichne (south of Razine) after seizing Malynivka in mid-June 2025 and recently seizing Koptieve (all northeast of Pokrovsk).[6] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic AC, SMD) are also operating northeast of Pokrovsk.[7] Ukrainian forces have been degrading these Russian units, and it is unclear whether the Russian military command intends to leverage the same units to push further north and west of Razine or if Russia may attempt to reinforce these units with additional redeployments. These Russian units will have to cross the Kazenyi Torets River to advance west of Razine, which may present another obstacle to the Russian advance depending on the river’s water level.
Russian advances west and northwest of Razine most immediately support the envelopment of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad — an operational objective that Russian forces have been pursuing over the last 18 months. ISW forecasted in December 2024 that Russian forces would need to make significant advances in the direction of Rodynske (west of Razine) to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast, and the Russian forces’ recent advances near Razine cohere with this assessment.[8] The commander of a Ukrainian National Guard artillery reconnaissance battalion operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on July 5 that Russian forces are focusing their attacks between Malynivka, Novoolenivka, and Popiv Yar (all northeast of Pokrovsk) in an effort to interdict Ukrainian logistics into Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) and Pokrovsk.[9] The Ukrainian commander noted that Russian forces are constantly conducting assaults with motorcycles and buggies. Russian milbloggers claimed on July 4 and 5 that Russian forces are trying to complicate Ukrainian logistics in the area by damaging a bridge near Shakhove (east of Dobropillya), interdicting Ukrainian forces’ ground lines of communication (GLOCs) near Udachne, and along the railway line near Kotlyne.[10]
Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct long-range strikes that target Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB). The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Forces, including elements of the Unmanned Systems Forces, conducted a strike against the Russian Joint Stock Company VNIIR-Progress Plant in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic, on the night of July 4 to 5.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the plant produces the “Kometa” adaptive antenna arrays, which are used in Shahed drones, Iskander-K cruise missiles, KAB guided bombs, and other high-precision weapons. Geolocated footage published on July 4 shows that a Ukrainian drone struck the VNIIR-Progress Plant.[14] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on July 5 that the Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire at the plant.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian Forces, including elements of the Unmanned Systems Forces, also conducted a strike against the Borisoglebsk Airfield, Voronezh Oblast, and struck a KAB guided glide bomb warehouse and combat training aircraft.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces base Su-34 fighter-bombers, Su-35M fighter jets, and Su-30SM fighter jets at the Brisoglebsk Airfield. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data for July 5 shows satellite-detected heat anomalies at Borisoglebsk Airfield, including in the central part of the airport and the logistical section.[17]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may attempt to advance further toward Dobropillya as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to envelop Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months.
- Russian advances west and northwest of Razine most immediately support the envelopment of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad — an operational objective that Russian forces have been pursuing over the last 18 months.
- Further Russian advances toward Dobropillya would indicate that Russian forces are placing a tactical prioritization on advancing west of Ukraine’s fortress belt – a series of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive positions – and forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the fortress belt under pressure of envelopment rather than conduct a head-on assault against the fortress belt.
- Such an operation would be consistent with Russia’s recent tactics and operational concepts designed to advance by leveraging smaller partial envelopments to seize territory instead of attempting rapid, deep operational-level penetrations of Ukraine’s defense, which Russian forces currently do not have the means to conduct.
- Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct long-range strikes that target Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
- Ukraine’s Western partners to continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and collaborate with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).
- European intelligence services continue to report that Russia is intensifying its deployment of chemical agents in Ukraine in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Pokrovsk.