The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 31 that Russian forces completed the seizure of Chasiv Yar, although available geolocated footage does not support claims that Russian forces have yet advanced to the western administrative boundary of the town. Geolocated footage published on July 31 shows that Russian forces recently raised flags in western and southern Chasiv Yar and indicates that Russian forces have likely seized most of the settlement.[1] The Russian MoD and numerous Russian milbloggers credited elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, including its 299th VDV Regiment, with the seizure of Chasiv Yar.[2] Tactical Russian advances westward in Chasiv Yar do not constitute an operationally significant development in this area, however, as Russian forces have held most of northern and central Chasiv Yar since late January 2025 and began advancing in southwestern Chasiv Yar in mid-June 2025.[3] Russian forces have been within tube artillery range of Ukraine’s main logistics route through the fortress belt since late January 2025 and have held positions along the T-0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway for several months, and have yet to significantly threaten Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka. ISW has yet to observe geolocated footage showing Russian forces operating in the westernmost outskirts of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces will have to push Ukrainian forces from positions in these outskirts in order to complete the seizure of the town.
Russian forces will likely complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar in the coming days, which will open several possible avenues for Russian forces to attack Ukraine’s fortress belt — a series of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast.Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar direction are roughly six to eight kilometers from the northeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and could leverage the seizure of Chasiv Yar to conduct a frontal assault on the city. Russian forces currently appear to be attempting to envelop Kostyantynivka from the southwest, however, and therefore may wait to conduct a frontal assault against Kostyantynivka until Russian forces advance closer to the city from the south via the Toretsk direction. Russian forces have established an operational pattern of partially enveloping a settlement before beginning street-by-street frontal assaults, and Russian forces may continue this pattern in a future operation to seize Kostyantynivka.[8] Russian forces could also attack directly westward of Chasiv Yar through fields and small settlements toward Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka in order to interdict the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway and complicate Ukrainian egress routes and ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Kostyantynivka, which would support long-standing Russian efforts to collapse and seize Ukraine’s fortress belt.
RRussia has launched a simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia has used strikes largely affecting civilian areas in Kyiv City as well as threats and other rhetorical efforts in order to Trump that Russia continues rejecting Trump’s demand that the Kremlin meaningfully engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk City and 309 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 30 to 31.[10] This strike package is significantly larger than the average Russian strike prior to May 2025. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces mainly targeted Kyiv City and that Ukrainian forces downed three Iskander-K cruise missiles and 288 drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five cruise missiles and 21 drones struck 12 locations and that missile and drone debris struck 19 locations, primarily in Kyiv City. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strike killed at least 11 people, injured at least 135 people in Kyiv City alone, and extensively damaged residential and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv City and Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[11] Russia’s ever-growing nightly strikes against Ukraine have been and remain a clear Russian rejection of Trump’s calls for peace in Ukraine.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a decisive enabler of devastating long-range Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear. A Russian milblogger claimed on July 30 that Russian forces launched up to 200 Geran-2 drones (the Russian iteration of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone) and Garpiya-A1 kamikaze drones (reportedly another Shahed drone variant that Russia produces with primarily PRC-produced components) in the strike against Kyiv City.[17] Reuters recently reported that PRC companies deliberately falsely label drone engines shipped to Russia for use in Garpiya drones as “industrial refrigeration units” to hide their actual military purpose, and Russia also uses PRC components in other Shahed-type drones, including a decoy and reconnaissance variant.[18] ISW has observed reports indicating that Russian defense manufacturer Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant Kupol increased its annual production of Garpiya-A1 drones from 2,000 to over 6,000, largely due to a steady supply of PRC-made L550E engines.[19] The PRC is an indispensable supplier for the broader Russian drone industry, as ISW has routinely assessed.[20] Russia will continue relying heavily on the PRC to support the expansion of its long-range strike capabilities and may incorporate more Garpiya drones in strike packages in the coming weeks and months as Russia seeks to conduct regular strikes consisting of up to 2,000 drones, likely by November 2025.[21]
Ukrainian forces continue to innovate technical solutions to offset Russian strike adaptations.The Ukrainian National Guard’s 1st Azov Corps announced on July 31 that it formed a dedicated “anti-Shahed” drone unit that will detect, triage, and down long-range Russian drones targeting Ukrainian deep rear areas, including with interceptor drones.[32] Ukraine’s well-demonstrated ability to rapidly innovate and implement solutions that optimize flexibility within a theater characterized by a dramatically shortened innovation cycle remains integral to Ukraine’s ability to effectively counter Russian innovations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on July 31 designed to safeguard the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).[33] The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) passed the bill earlier on July 31, and Zelensky reiterated that ”Ukraine is a democracy” that listens to the voice of its population.[34] Zelensky submitted the draft law in response to public backlash against a law subordinating the NABU and SAP to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General that Zelensky signed on July 22.[35]
Key Takeaways:
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 31 that Russian forces completed the seizure of Chasiv Yar, although available geolocated footage does not support claims that Russian forces have yet advanced to the western administrative boundary of the town.
- Russian forces have taken 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from the western boundary of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May 2023, to western Chasiv Yar.
- Russian forces will likely complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar in the coming days, which will open several possible avenues for Russian forces to attack Ukraine’s fortress belt — a series of fortified cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive positions in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russia has launched a simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin’s nuclear threats and rhetorical efforts to delay peace negotiations are part of a broader cognitive campaign to undermine US-led efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a decisive enabler of devastating long-range Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear.
- European and US sanctions appear to be degrading Russian revenues from third-country importers of Russian oil.
- Russia continues to look to its small coalition of international partners to lend legitimacy to its illegal occupation and annexation of Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces continue to innovate technical solutions to offset Russian strike adaptations.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on July 31 designed to safeguard the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Lyman and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.