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August 3, 2025

Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot and oil refinery

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on August 3.[1] Geolocated imagery shows a fire at the Rosneft Kubannefteprodukt Oil Depot in Adler, Krasnodar Krai.[2] Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev acknowledged that a Ukrainian drone strike caused the fire and that the fire engulfed several fuel tanks at the depot.[3] A Ukrainian Telegram channel also published a photo on August 3 purportedly showing an oil refinery on fire in Kstovo, Nizhnyi Novgorod.[4] Nizhnyi Novgorod Oblast Governor claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian drone strike on the night of August 2 to 3.[5]

Russia is reportedly preparing to expand its use of occupied Ukraine to launch Shahed-type drone strikes against Ukraine. A Ukrainian Telegram channel reported on August 2 that satellite imagery of the airport in northern occupied Donetsk City from July 2025 shows that Russian authorities have partially cleared the fortifications on the runway and started construction work at the parking lots, possibly in preparation for the installation of fuel tanks.[6] Ukrainian open-source intelligence group CyberBoroshno reported that the satellite imagery suggests that Russian occupation authorities are building closed storage areas near the destroyed airport terminal and are preparing manual drone control points, warhead unloading areas, air surveillance posts, and a runway.[7] CyberBoroshno assessed that Russian occupation authorities are developing infrastructure at the airport to launch Shahed-type strike drones, Gerbera-type decoy drones, and possibly Geran (Shahed) jet-powered drones. Long-range drone launch sites closer to the frontline will reduce the reaction time for Ukrainian air defenses. Russian forces have been launching long-range strike drones from occupied Ukraine, and Russia’s continued use of occupied Ukraine for such strikes will increasingly threaten Ukraine and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states if Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian territory.

Russia appears to be trying to better protect its air bases after multiple years of Ukrainian strikes against the Russian rear. Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) First Deputy Commander-in-Chief Lieutenant General Alexander Maksimtsev claimed in an interview with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) official newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda on August 1 that Russia is creating a new generation of the Voronezh early-warning radars, which Maksimtsev claimed will not have any blind spots, will guarantee full coverage for all unspecified important assets, and will be able to track ballistic missiles regardless of their flight trajectories.[8] Maksimtsev further claimed that Russian forces are planning to provide all Russian air bases with shelters to protect aircraft.[9] Maksimtsev claimed that Russia has been constructing such shelters at its main air bases for the last two years and is working to expand these shelters to all air bases. The UK MoD published geolocated imagery on July 29 indicating that Russia has launched a program to construct hardened aircraft shelters at air bases close to the Russia-Ukraine border and in occupied Ukraine, including at Millerovo Air Base in Rostov Oblast, Khalino Air Base in Kursk Oblast, and Hvardiiske Air Base in occupied Crimea.[10] ISW reported in mid-July 2025 that recent satellite imagery indicated that Russian forces were constructing hangar-style aircraft shelters at Khalino Air Base and Saky Air Base in occupied Crimea.[11] An open source account on X (formerly Twitter) posted additional satellite imagery from early June 2025 that indicated that Russian forces had started construction of aircraft shelters at 14 military sites, including Millerovo Air Base, Khalino Air Base, and Hvardiiske Air Base, and had likely expanded construction following Ukraine’s June 1 Operation Spiderweb deep strikes.[12] Russian milbloggers have repeatedly complained throughout the war about the Russian military’s failure to adapt to repeated successful Ukrainian strikes and refusal to construct protective shelters at air bases.[13]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Anatoliy Kryvonozhko as the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force on August 3.[18] Kryvonozhko served as the acting head of the Ukrainian Air Force from August 2024 until he was appointed commander.[19] Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian Air Force is implementing a 20-year development plan to improve Ukrainian aviation.[20]

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on August 3.
  • Russia is reportedly preparing to expand its use of occupied Ukraine to launch Shahed-type drone strikes against Ukraine.
  • Russia appears to be trying to better protect its air bases after multiple years of Ukrainian strikes against the Russian rear.
  • Russian intelligence services appear to be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage operations in Europe.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Anatoliy Kryvonozhko as the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force on August 3.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions.
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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.