The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump’s announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit. Trump stated that he called Russian President Vladimir Putin following the August 18 summit and began to arrange a bilateral meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin at an unspecified date and undetermined location.[1] Trump stated that he will meet with Zelensky and Putin in a trilateral meeting at an unspecified time after the bilateral meeting. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov spoke to reporters following the August 18 Trump-Putin call and that Putin and Trump “expressed support for the continuation of direct negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine” and expressed that “it would be necessary to study the possibility of raising the level of representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian sides” — a far cry from agreeing to leader-level bilateral and trilateral meetings.[2] Zelensky reiterated, following the August 18 summit, that he is ready to meet with Putin unconditionally and that Russia was the first to propose a bilateral Ukrainian-Russian meeting followed by a trilateral meeting with the United States.[3] Zelensky stated that territorial issues are issues that he will leave “between [himself] and Putin.”
Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit. Trump met with Zelensky at the White House before both joined a meeting with European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian President Giorgia Meloni, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.[4] The leaders discussed security guarantees for ensuring a lasting peace in Ukraine, plans for future meetings between Ukrainian and Russian leaders, and continued NATO and EU support for Ukraine. Trump stated that the meeting went well and that the US and European diplomatic and security support is paving the way for peace in Ukraine and Russia.[5] Zelensky stated that he and Trump agreed to work together on an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) and civilian prisoners, and the return of Ukrainian children whom Russia had kidnapped.[6]
The Western leaders emphasized the importance of a peace deal and security guarantees that deter further aggression against Ukraine and ensure both Ukrainian and European security.[7] Von der Leyen, Meloni, and Starmer expressed support for Ukrainian security guarantees styled after NATO’s Article 5, which obliges member states to take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force,” in case of aggression against a single member state.[8] Trump stated that his intent is that the unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine will deter future aggression against Ukraine.[9] Trump also verbally stated that the United States will provide some unspecified support for the security guarantees, with European states bearing most of the burden of these guarantees. Trump’s readout of the meeting posted on Truth Social states that “various European countries” would provide the security guarantees and that the United States would provide “coordination” for the guarantees.[10] The US position on American involvement in providing Ukraine security guarantees, therefore, remains unclear. Zelensky stated in a joint press conference with Trump that Ukraine needs security guarantees from its partners as well as resources to keep its military strong, including weapons, training, and intelligence sharing, and that a strong Ukrainian military is itself a security guarantee.[11] Zelensky noted that Ukraine and European partners now have a program to purchase weapons from the United States and that this is part of the guarantee of a strong Ukrainian military.[12]
Ukraine reportedly proposed a deal to purchase US weapons and produce Ukrainian drones in exchange for US security guarantees. The Financial Times (FT) reported on August 18 that it obtained a document that Ukraine will promise to purchase $100 billion worth of US weapons with European financing should the United States provide security guarantees, but noted that the document did not specify which weapons Ukraine seeks to purchase.[13] The FT reported that Ukraine also proposed a $50 billion deal to produce drones with Ukrainian companies, but that the documents did not indicate how much of the drone deal would be procurement or investment. The FT cited four people familiar with the matter that these proposals were on a Ukrainian list of talking points shared with European leaders ahead of the August 18 summit.
Russian officials largely rejected Europe’s proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement. Trump stated on August 18 during his meeting with Zelensky and European leaders that Putin stated on August 15 at the Alaska summit that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace agreement.[14] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on August 18 that Russia “categorical[ly] reject[s]” “any scenario that envisages the appearance in Ukraine of a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries,” however.[15] Zakharova’s rejection covers both a formal NATO contingent to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine as well as contingents from any NATO member state in Ukraine, even if those contingents are not part of a NATO mission. Zakharova’s statement is consistent with previous Kremlin statements rejecting the possibility of any NATO member state deploying a military contingent to Ukraine and threatening that Russia would deem any such deployment of forces to Ukraine as legitimate military targets.[16] Trump and other EU officials reiterated that any deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine would not be a formal NATO military contingent.[17]
Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin. Trump stated that all the leaders in attendance at the August 18 multilateral summit “would obviously prefer an immediate ceasefire while we work on a lasting peace,” but that “as of this moment, it’s not happening.”[18] Trump stated that he supports a ceasefire because it could stop the casualties “immediately.” Merz and Macron also expressed support for Ukraine and Russia to implement a ceasefire either ahead of or following a trilateral Trump-Zelensky Putin meeting.[19] Both Trump stated that both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin “can talk a little bit more” about a potential ceasefire, presumably in a potential future bilateral or meeting.[20]
Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Taganrog and Millerovo, Rostov Oblast, and Kursk City; and 140 Shahed-type and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Millerovo; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea overnight on August 17 to 18.[21] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 88 Shahed drones and decoys over northern, eastern, southern, and central Ukraine and that missiles and drones struck 25 locations in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.[22] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on August 18 that Russian missile strikes killed three and injured 20 in Zaporizhzhia City.[23] Zelensky also reported that Russian forces struck an Azerbaijani energy facility in Odesa City. Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russian missiles and drones damaged civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv City and killed seven civilians and injured 18.[24] Russian forces conducted combined missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night before and after the Alaska summit on August 15, also inflicting civilian casualties and damaging civilian infrastructure.[25] Russia continues to conduct drone and missile strikes that result in high civilian casualties even as Trump has repeatedly called on Russia to stop strike series that disproportionately affect civilian areas.
Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine. Russian opposition media outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on August 18 that data from Russian federal budget expenditures indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) contract recruitment rate fell to a two-year low in the second quarter of 2025.[26] Vazhnye Istorii reported that the Russian MoD made payments to 37,900 people for signing a contract in the second quarter of 2025, but that the Russian MoD made payments to 92,800 people in 2024, a significant decrease. ISW previously observed reports that the Kremlin exceeded its 30-billion-ruble ($381.5 million) 2025 federal budget allocation for contract payments by Summer 2025 and increased its budget allocation to 35.8 billion rubles ($455.3 million).[27] Russia’s recruitment rate likely has not slowed despite the federal recruitment budget’s depletion, however. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on July 2 that the Russian MoD signed over 210,000 contract soldiers, which Vazhnye Istorii noted is 1.6 times higher than what the budget expenditure data reflects.[28] Vazhnye Istorii reported that other research assessed that the MoD secured about 191,000 new contracts using regional budgetary data, suggesting that the Kremlin is using other budgets to finance recruitment.[29] Russian officials are increasingly attempting to circumvent budgetary shortcomings by informally recruiting conscripts, offering additional payments to foreigners, and shifting the financial burden by tapping the budgets of Russian federal subjects (regions) rather than the direct budget of the federal government.[30] Russia’s attempt to place the onus of funding enlistment bonuses on federal subjects represents a cosmetic attempt to obscure the fact that Russia’s finite national wealth is unable to sustain long-term recruitment efforts indefinitely without cutting into other government programs. Increased financial challenges will likely degrade Russia’s overall force generation apparatus. Additional Western sanctions targeting Russian oil revenues will likely exacerbate greater economic challenges that can degrade Russia’s long-term ability to continue its war in Ukraine.[31]
Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on August 18 that Ukrainian forces recently liberated Zapovidne (formerly Nykanorivka) and Dorozhnie — both southwest of Dobropillya — at the very base of the Russian penetration east and northeast of Dobropillya.[32] Geolocated footage published on August 14 and geolocated on August 18 shows Ukrainian servicemembers detaining Russian soldiers along a windbreak southwest of Petrivka (northeast of Dobropillya), indicating that Russian forces advanced to the area prior to August 14 during the initial infiltration operation.[33] Additional geolocated footage published on August 17 and geolocated on August 18 shows Ukrainian forces raising a flag in Zolotyi Kolodyaz (northeast of Dobropillya), indicating that Russian forces had advanced to the settlement before August 17 and that Ukrainian forces were then able to liberate the area.[34] ISW had previously not coded these settlements as Russian advances on ISW’s maps due to the lack of geolocated evidence of Russian presence in either Petrivka or Zolotyi Kolodyaz.
ISW has observed indications that Russian forces are struggling to translate the initial tactical infiltration around Dobropillya into a wider operational-level breakthrough. Ukrainian Dnipro Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on August 18 that Ukrainian forces collapsed the Russian salient in the Dobropillya direction by cutting off Russian infiltration elements from main forces, presumably by denying Russian forces the ability to supply and reinforce the infiltration groups at the scale necessary to exploit the infiltration.[35] Mashovets stated elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are attempting to bypass Volodymyrivka (southwest of Dobropillya) from the east in an attempt to threaten the flank of the Ukrainian forces currently threatening elements of the 51st CAA, which are holding a narrow penetration toward Dobropillya between Zapovidne and Novotoretske (southwest of Dobropillya).[36] Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces advancing on the western side of the penetration are advancing faster than elements of the 8th CAA are advancing east of Volodymyrivka, however. Mashovets stated that elements of the 5th, 110th, and 132nd motorized rifle brigades (all 51st CAA) operating within the penetration are therefore “fracturing” in their efforts to support the base of penetration and can only hold a 2.5 kilometer width of territory within the penetration as a result.[37] A Russian milblogger recently warned that the Russian penetration east and northeast of Dobropillya was too narrow relative to its depth and therefore vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks and interdiction.[38] Russian milbloggers are also notably increasingly discussing the Rodynske direction (north of Pokrovsk and southeast of Dobropillya) as opposed to Dobropillya, indicating that failures to reinforce the initial infiltration are now being reflected in the Russian information space’s reporting of the Pokrovsk direction.
Key Takeaways:
- The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump’s announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.
- Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit.
- Russian officials largely rejected Europe’s proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement.
- Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.
- Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings.
- Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks.
- A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.