Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an English-language interview with a US outlet to reiterate the Kremlin’s explicit rejection of US-proposed initiatives for peace in Ukraine. Lavrov stated in an interview with NBC that Russian officials have explained Russia’s war goals during meetings with Trump and other US officials and have also explained them publicly, signaling that public Russian statements about the war convey the same points that Russian officials aim to convey in private meetings.[1] Lavrov reiterated that Russia views NATO expansion and the alleged “violation of Russian security interests” as one of the “root causes” of the war.[2] Lavrov claimed that Russia will achieve its war aims, which he listed as the removal of security threats to Russia “coming from the Ukrainian territory,” the protection of the rights of the “ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking people who believe they belong to the Russian culture and Russian history,” and Ukrainian neutrality. Lavrov claimed that Ukraine has the right to exist but only as long as it “lets go” of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers who “decided that they belong to Russian culture.”[3] Lavrov claimed that Russia has a “duty” to support and protect those who share the values of the Russian language and the “Russian World” (“Russkiy Mir”).[4] Lavrov’s statements in the NBC interview reiterate consistent Kremlin claims that the alleged “root causes” of the war are NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s discrimination against Russian speakers.[5] The Kremlin’s “root causes” notably extend beyond Ukraine, and agreeing to Russia’s demand that any future peace settlement “eliminate” the root causes would require substantial negotiations with NATO as well.[6] Lavrov is also promoting the narrative that Ukraine is part of the Kremlin’s “Russkiy Mir” idea – an amorphous ideological and geographic conception that Russia claims includes all of the former territories of Kyivan Rus, the Kingdom of Muscovy, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and the contemporary Russian Federation. Lavrov’s continued insistence that any end to the war must address Russia’s “root causes,” including multiple times following the August 15 Alaska summit, continues to indicate that Russia’s war aims have not changed.[7]
Lavrov continued efforts to mischaracterize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the impediment to an enduring peace in Ukraine, in order to distract from the Kremlin’s own unwillingness to compromise or engage in negotiations on US President Donald Trump’s proposed timeline. Lavrov claimed that Zelensky “will not resolve the [Kremlin’s] issue[s]” with Ukraine and accused Zelensky of publicly stating that “he is not going to discuss any territories,” deliberately mischaracterizing Zelensky’s recent public statements to the opposite.[8] Zelensky has repeatedly indicated in recent days that he is willing to discuss territorial issues in a bilateral meeting with Putin.[9] Lavrov claimed that Zelensky is going against Trump’s wishes regarding NATO membership and is refusing to repeal laws relating to Russia’s defined “root causes” of the war. Lavrov asked why Zelensky is “ready to meet” and implied that any Zelensky-Putin meeting would be useless, suggesting that Putin is unwilling to meet with Zelensky unless Ukraine concedes to Russia’s original war demands, which amount to Ukraine’s military, political, and cultural capitulation.[10]
Lavrov also undermined Zelensky’s legitimacy as part of efforts to justify Russia’s refusal to engage in the peace process and to sign a peace deal with Ukraine. Lavrov responded to a question about whether he and Putin recognize Zelensky as the “legitimate leader of Ukraine” by stating that “we recognize him as the de facto head” of Ukraine.[11] Lavrov claimed that the Kremlin is willing to meet with Zelensky “in this capacity” but “when it comes to signing legal documents…[Russia] would need a very clear understanding by everyone that the person who is signing is legitimate.” Lavrov falsely claimed that “Zelensky is not at the moment” the legitimate leader of Ukraine under the Ukrainian Constitution. Lavrov is continuing months-long Kremlin efforts to exploit Ukraine’s legally mandated inability to hold elections during the war and to deliberately mischaracterize the Ukrainian Constitution and law. The Ukrainian Constitution bars the government from holding elections when martial law is in effect, and the Ukrainian government legally cannot abolish martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine.[12] Lavrov is likely attempting to inject these justifications for not engaging in the peace process into the American information space in an attempt to sway US policy and public opinion in Russia’s favor.
Lavrov denied that Russia violated past international treaties prohibiting Russia from invading Ukraine and rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine in the future. Lavrov claimed that the 1994 Budapest Memorandum guaranteed Ukraine’s security just “as any other non-nuclear state” and that the legal obligation of nuclear states that give guarantees to non-nuclear states is to not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states.[13] Lavrov claimed that Ukraine – not Russia – violated the 1994 agreement by not respecting human rights after 2014. The Budapest Memorandum does state that Russia, the UK, and the United States are committed to not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, such as Ukraine.[14] Lavrov’s claims ignore, however, that the memorandum also states that Russia, the UK, and United States are committed to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.”
Lavrov claimed that Western states, which Lavrov alleged prepared a “coup” in Ukraine in 2014 (in reference to Ukraine’s democratically organized Revolution of Dignity) and support a “Nazi” government in Kyiv (in reference to Ukraine’s democratically elected government), should not be allowed to be responsible for Ukraine’s post-war security – a rejection of the US- and European-backed security guarantees for Ukraine currently under discussion.[15] Lavrov claimed that he never stated that Russia must have a veto over security guarantees for Ukraine but that there should be a consensus on such guarantees and take into account Russia’s interests. Lavrov repeatedly referenced the security guarantees for Ukraine laid out in the 2022 Istanbul draft treaty during the NBC interview. The 2022 draft treaty stated that Russia would be one of the states guaranteeing Ukraine’s security but that the guarantor states all had to come to a consensus before assisting Ukraine in the event of an armed attack against it – essentially granting Russia veto power over the other guarantor states’ abilities to help Ukraine in the event of renewed Russian aggression.[16] Lavrov and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly referenced the 2022 Istanbul draft treaty – which amounted to full Ukrainian capitulation in accordance with Russia’s original war demands – as the basis for any future peace settlement.[17] ISW continues to assess that granting Russia veto power over Western security guarantees would enable the Kremlin to weaken Ukraine’s ability to resist another Russian invasion by preventing Ukraine from forming binding security agreements such as those now under discussion, increasing and modernizing its military, and receiving support from Ukraine’s partners.[18] Lavrov is likely attempting to obfuscate Russia’s 2014 and 2022 violations of the Budapest Memorandum in an interview for American audiences in order to push for a future security guarantee agreement listing Russia as a guarantor state.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian energy infrastructure in Leningrad and Samara oblasts on the night of August 23 to 24. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SOF) conducted a drone strike against the Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast.[19] Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne stated that the SBU and SOF struck the Novatek gas processing complex, which is the largest producer of liquified natural gas (LNG) in Russia that can process up to 6.9 million tons of raw material per year and is a key Russian logistics hub in the Baltic Sea for energy resource export.[20] Suspilne reported that the strikes damaged the cryogenic gas condensate and gas fractionation unit, which is the “heart” of the complex’s technological processes.[21] Geolocated footage published on August 24 shows a fire at the Ust-Luga port.[22] Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko claimed on August 24 that drone debris caused a fire at the Novatek terminal.[23]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces, including from Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), also struck the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast on the night of August 23 to 24.[24] The Syzran Oil Refinery can refine up to 8.5 million tons of oil per year, which amounts to about 3.08 percent of the total volume of oil refining in Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Syzran Oil Refinery specializes in producing gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, and other petroleum products for the Russian military. Geolocated footage published on August 24 shows an explosion and fire near the refinery.[25] Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev claimed on August 24 that Ukrainian drones struck an unspecified “industrial enterprise” in Syzran City.[26] ISW recently observed reports from Russian business outlet Kommersant indicating that Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries are among the factors impacting Russia’s fuel reserves and threatening oil revenues.[27] The Kremlin relies on oil revenues to fund its war in Ukraine, and Ukrainian long-range strikes continue to threaten Russia’s economic stability.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an English-language interview with a US outlet to reiterate the Kremlin’s explicit rejection of US-proposed initiatives for peace in Ukraine.
- Lavrov continued efforts to mischaracterize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the impediment to an enduring peace in Ukraine, in order to distract from the Kremlin’s own unwillingness to compromise or engage in negotiations on US President Donald Trump’s proposed timeline.
- Lavrov denied that Russia violated past international treaties prohibiting Russia from invading Ukraine and rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine in the future.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian energy infrastructure in Leningrad and Samara oblasts on the night of August 23 to 24.
- Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons.
- Ukraine and Russia conducted another prisoner exchange that included a limited number of Ukrainian journalists and government officials on August 24.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.