September 6, 2025

Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine expects major Russian operation in western Donetsk

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian officials warned that the Russian military command is regrouping and reinforcing its troops in western Donetsk Oblast, likely ahead of a major offensive operation. Ukrainian Dnipro Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Oleksiy Belskyi reported that the Russian military command is concentrating significant forces in Donetsk Oblast and that the most intense fighting is occurring in the Pokrovsk direction.[1] Belskyi stated that Russian forces are now accumulating significant numbers of drones and heavy armored vehicles in the area after failing to seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad during Summer 2025. The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps reported that the Russian military command recently redeployed experienced naval infantry units to the Pokrovsk direction, indicating that Russia is preparing to re-intensify assaults in the area.[2] The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps reported that Russian forces began leveraging infiltration tactics with small teams with the aim of getting as close as possible to Ukrainian drone and artillery positions, overextending Ukrainian forces, gaining footholds in forward positions, and expanding the contested “gray” zone. The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps noted that Russian forces intensified offensive operations on the flanks of Pokrovsk using armored and motorized vehicles in an effort to interdict ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and envelop Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps reported that the Russian military command remains committed to seizing Ukraine’s fortress belt, which consists of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka and forms the backbone of Ukrainian forces’ defense in Donetsk Oblast. A senior non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Siversk direction reported that Russian forces are conducting troop rotations in the area and that Ukrainian forces anticipate that Russian forces will soon conduct intensified offensive operations.[3] The NCO noted that the Russian military command is pressuring Russian units to advance during Fall 2025, given that Russian forces did not achieve their given objectives during Summer 2025. The deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Kramatorsk direction also reported that Russian forces are building up their force presence in preparation for future assault operations in the Kramatorsk area and that the Russian military command has deployed unspecified naval infantry units to the area.[4]

A Ukrainian servicemember reported on September 5 that the Russian military command recently redeployed five to six unspecified naval infantry brigades to the Dobropillya direction alongside a tank regiment, an infantry regiment, and two motorized rifle brigades.[5] The Ukrainian servicemember reported that the Russian military command also recently redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (18th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) to Chasiv Yar. A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on September 6 that elements of the 76th VDV Division, including its 237th VDV Regiment, are redeploying from Sumy Oblast to an unspecified location.[6] ISW recently observed reports that the Russian military command redeployed several units from Kursk Oblast, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) to the Dobropillya area and elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and 11th Separate VDV Brigade to unspecified areas of Donetsk Oblast.[7] ISW has also observed additional reports that the Russian military command redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division from Kherson Oblast to Bakhmut, possibly to reinforce Russian offensive efforts near Kostyantynivka or Siversk.[8] The Russian military command’s reported decision to redeploy more forces to the Dobropillya area suggests that Russia may continue to focus on offensive efforts northeast of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces are also attempting to interdict key Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in western Donetsk Oblast in order to complicate Ukrainian logistics and enable further Russian advances during future offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated on September 6 that Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian logistics in order to complicate Ukraine’s ability to defend and launch counterattacks along the frontline.[9] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are attempting to identify gaps in Ukraine’s defensive lines and exploit compromised Ukrainian positions. A senior non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Siversk direction stated that Russian drone operators have recently been loitering drones along Ukrainian GLOCs in the brigade’s area of responsibility (AoR) and waiting to strike Ukrainian personnel.[10] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have intensified first person view (FPV) drone strikes against the E-40 Izyum-Slovyansk highway, presumably from positions in the Lyman direction, and are successfully disrupting Ukrainian logistics.[11] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces have struck 10 Ukrainian military vehicles traveling along the E-40 highway in the last few days and that Russian drone strikes may force Ukraine to pursue alternative logistics routes to supply Ukrainian positions along the fortress belt. Additional Russian milbloggers posted footage of damaged Ukrainian vehicles along the highway and claimed that Russian forces are also using Lancet drones to strike these vehicles.[12] Russian forces have previously leveraged interdiction efforts in order to create vulnerabilities in frontline Ukrainian positions that Russian forces can then exploit in infantry and mechanized assaults.[13] Russian forces have historically relied on glide bomb strikes, and now increasingly drone strikes, to raze frontline settlements and towns to the ground in order to destroy any possible Ukrainian defensive positions and force Ukrainian forces to retreat, enabling less costly Russian advances.[14]

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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

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The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.