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Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy. Bloombergreported on September 20 that undisclosed people close to the Kremlin stated that Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way for Russia to force Ukraine into peace negotiations on Putin’s terms.[1] The sources stated that Putin assesses that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to “do much” to bolster Ukraine’s defense and that the US-Russian talks in Alaska on August 15, 2025, convinced Putin that Trump has no interest in intervening in the war in Ukraine. The sources stated that Putin intends to remain engaged in any ongoing bilateral dialogue with the United States but will continue to act in what he perceives to be Russia’s interest. The sources stated that Putin intends to continue targeting Ukraine’s energy network and other critical infrastructure. Putin’s long-standing theory of victory posits that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine by indefinitely maintaining the theater-wide initiative and outlasting Western military support for Ukraine.[2] The sources’ statements indicate that recent US efforts to mediate a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine have not impacted Putin’s calculus and that Putin remains committed to defeating Ukraine militarily, as ISW has continued to assess. Putin’s recent actions — including the decision to redeploy more forces to Donetsk Oblast and recent Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO member states — further underscore his commitment to both continued military aggression against Ukraine and future military aggression against NATO member states.[3]
Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026. The Kremlin maintains a tight grip on the Russian information space and holds significant influence over most Russian officials and insiders, which suggests that Putin may have orchestrated or at least approved of sources in the Kremlin leaking information to a Western publication.[4] The Kremlin sources’ emphasis on the Trump Administration’s reported failure to influence Putin’s decision making is likely an attempt to seize on friction between US and European officials and to sow further discord between Western allies. The Kremlin has long sought to divide Ukraine’s US and European supporters in order to weaken cohesive Western support for Ukraine and has intensified this campaign since Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.[5]
Putin likely also intends for this article to feed into the Kremlin’s long-running narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that Putin can bring about a Russian victory in Ukraine seemingly by will alone. The Kremlin sources’ emphasis on Putin’s commitment to a military victory in Ukraine ignores the Russian military’s systemic shortcomings and limitations that have thus far denied Putin’s ability to achieve Russia’s strategic objectives of politically controlling all of Ukraine, or decisively winning on the battlefield. ISW has repeatedly observed instances of Putin tasking the Russian military with goals far beyond its capabilities, and it is unclear whether Putin is receiving inaccurate information about Russian military capabilities or whether Putin is choosing to ignore Russia’s limitations and push on with grinding offensives to further Russian narratives about Russia’s ability to wage war indefinitely, no matter the costs.[6] ISW continues to assess that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, however, and that Ukraine, the United States, and European states maintain agency over the outcome of the war in Ukraine.[7]
Putin likely also intends for this article to generate panic in Ukraine about Russia’s long-range strike campaign ahead of Winter 2025-2026. The Kremlin sources’ reference to continued Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is almost certainly intended to invoke the memory of Russia’s Fall 2022 and Winter 2022-2023 strike campaign against Ukraine’s energy grid and the subsequent power outages that affected Ukraine, particularly civilians.[8] The Kremlin is likely resurfacing this memory in order to create fear amongst Ukrainians and to provoke Ukrainians into demanding that the Ukrainian government negotiate a settlement to the war before Winter 2025-2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in August 2025 that Russia was increasingly targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to undermine Ukraine’s preparations for the winter heating season.[9] Putin is likely hoping to seize on the uncertainty that recent large-scale long-range Russian strikes have caused in Ukraine in order to exacerbate domestic discontent and increase pressure on the Ukrainian government to end the war.
Russian forces conducted one of the largest drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks on the night of September 19 to 20. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 8 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; 32 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Saratov Oblast; and 579 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[10] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 2 Iskander-M/KN-32 ballistic missiles and 29 Kh-101 cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 552 drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that an unspecified number of ballistic and cruise missiles and 23 drones struck ten locations and that drone fragments fell in ten locations. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces conducted a simultaneous strike on targets with large numbers of missiles and drones and that Ukrainian forces used tactical aviation, including F-16s, to intercept the cruise missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces targeted Dnipro City and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast broadly and locations in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhia, Poltavka, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts.[11] Zelensky stated that Russian forces directly struck a high-rise residential building in Dnipro City with a missile equipped with cluster munitions.[12] Footage reportedly shows a Kh-101 cruise missile striking the residential building in Dnipro City, underscoring the need to further bolster Ukraine’s air defense umbrella.[13] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported that the strike killed one and injured 13 civilians.[14] The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office reported that Russian strikes in Khmelnytskyi Oblast killed one and injured three civilians.[15] Other Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Sumy oblasts.[16]Russia is intensifying its efforts to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve by violating NATO members’ safety zones in the air domain. Polish Border Guards reported on September 19 that two Russian fighter jets performed a low altitude pass over the Polish Lotos Petrobaltic oil and gas drilling platform in the Baltic Sea in direct violation of the platform’s safety zone.[17] The Polish state-owned energy company Orlen Petrobaltic owns and operates the Petrobaltic platform and is Poland’s only offshore oil platform.[18] Polish Border Guard Spokesperson Katerzyna Przybysz stated, and open-source naval vessel tracking sites indicate, that the Petrobaltic drilling platform is in Poland’s exclusive economic zone.[19] It remains unclear whether the Russian jet incursion near the Petrobaltic platform occurred during the September 19 sortie in which three Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonia’s airspace or if this was a separate incident.[20] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 19 that Russian aircraft did not violate Estonian airspace and that the three Russian jets completed a “scheduled flight” from Karelia airfield to an unspecified airfield in Kaliningrad Oblast in accordance with international law.[21] ISW continues to assess that Russia is deliberately testing the limits of NATO’s capabilities with various air incursions in an effort to gather data on the alliance’s response measures and political will that Russia may then apply to potential conflicts against NATO.[22]