Institute for the Study of War: Russia preparing to send reservists into combat

The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. The Russian government approved on October 13 a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed stipulating that servicemembers of the Russian mobilization reserve can perform defensive tasks during armed conflicts, counter-terrorist operations, or deployments outside Russian territory.[1] The law proposes that the Russian president can call up reservists for special training lasting up to two months. An explanatory note to the law states that the changes will allow Russia to deploy reservists during peacetime, expanding the current legislation that only allows Russia to deploy reservists during mobilization or wartime. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov stated on October 13 that the law will allow the Kremlin to deploy reservists outside of Russian territory, including to Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.[2] ISW will review the significance of this draft law in an upcoming warning update publication.

European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Polish National Security Bureau Chief Sławomir Cenckiewicz told the Financial Times in an article published on October 12 that Russia is using cryptocurrency to pay actors conducting sabotage in Europe in order to prevent European intelligence services from tracking the payments.[3] Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for sabotage missions and that Poland discovered in 2023 a network of agents whom the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU) recruited and whom Russia financed “to a high extent” with cryptocurrency. Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for specific missions to minimize risk to the Kremlin. Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin has also leveraged cryptocurrency to circumvent Western sanctions. Cenkiewicz also stated that Poland is now in a “state of war” in the cyber domain, and FT noted that Poland has accused Russia of orchestrating a recent hacking attempt to cut off the water supplies to Gdansk.[4]

German Foreign Intelligence Service (BND) President Martin Jäger stated on October 13 that the frequency of Russian attacks on Europe is a “new level of confrontation.”[5] Jäger stated that Russia is trying to probe Europe’s borders, undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies, divide societies, and intimidate the population. Jäger stated that Europe must prepare for further Russian escalation and cannot assume that Russia will not launch a conventional attack against NATO until 2029. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared on October 12 Russia’s recent attacks against Europe to the ways in which Russian President Vladimir Putin used Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 to gauge the West’s reaction.[6] Zelensky warned that Putin is preparing the Russian population for aggression against the Baltic States and Poland. ISW continues to assess that any future ceasefire or long-term pause in combat in Ukraine would free up Russian forces for rapid redeployment to Russia’s eastern border with NATO, whereby Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many European officials currently expect.[7]

The Kremlin appears to be changing tactics within its reflexive control campaign to deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, likely due to recent reporting that the United States has been sharing intelligence to help Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. US President Donald Trump stated on October 12 that he would inform Russian President Vladimir Putin that the United States would provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles if Russia refused to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.[8] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on October 13 that Russia is unable to distinguish between Tomahawk missiles armed with nuclear or conventional payloads while the missiles are in flight and claimed that the United States would control Ukrainian Tomahawk launches.[9] Medvedev implied that Russia would have to respond to such a scenario and threateningly claimed that US deliveries of Tomahawks to Ukraine would “not be good for anyone.” Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to a request for clarification about Medvedev’s statement, claiming that US specialists would have to participate in Ukrainian Tomahawk missile strikes and that any expert is aware of the consequences of such a decision.[10]

Ukrainian forces recently struck Russian oil infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of October 12 to 13. Sources in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian outlet Suspline on October 13 that Ukrainian forces struck at least five tanks at the Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal, a 220kV electrical substation in Feodosia, and a 330kV substation in occupied Simferopol.[14] The sources stated that the strikes started a fire at the oil terminal. Geolocated footage and NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data confirm that Ukrainian forces struck the three targets in occupied Crimea.[15] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that Ukrainian strikes damaged 11 fuel tanks at the oil terminal, including eight tanks holding diesel fuel with capacities of 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons, two tanks holding gasoline, and one empty tank.[16] Crimea occupation head Sergei Aksyonov acknowledged that Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in occupied Feodosia overnight and caused fires.[17]

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine.
2.  European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
3.  The Kremlin appears to be changing tactics within its reflexive control campaign to deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, likely due to recent reporting that the United States has been sharing intelligence to help Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.
4. The Kremlin is reportedly preparing to manipulate voters by dismissing unpopular government officials ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections.
5. Ukrainian forces recently struck Russian oil infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of October 12 to 13.
6. Select Russian industries are showing signs of steep decline that risk lasting damage with potentially deep socio-economic repercussions.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area, near Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.