Russian forces conducted a large combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 21 and 22 and struck a Ukrainian kindergarten on the morning of October 22. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 405 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — roughly 250 of which were Shahed drones — from Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Rostov oblasts and occupied Donetsk Oblast; nine Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk and Voronezh oblasts and occupied Crimea; four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace above Rostov Oblast; and four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 333 drones, eight Iskander-K cruise missiles, six Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and two Kh-59/69 missiles; that 12 missiles and 55 drones hit 26 locations; and that drone debris fell on 19 locations. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that 17 drones did not reach their targets as they were “lost in location” (likely referring to Ukrainian electronic warfare [EW] interference). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the Russian strikes primarily targeted Kyiv Oblast and also affected Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblasts. Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes damaged civilian and energy infrastructure in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts.[2] Kyiv City and Oblast officials reported that Russian forces conducted strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure, killing four civilians, including a 12-year-old girl and a six-month-old baby, and injuring 29, including five children.[3] The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy announced that it enacted emergency power shutdowns throughout most Ukrainian oblasts and that Ukrainian officials are working to restore power.[4] The Romanian Ministry of National Defense reported that Romanian forces scrambled two F-16 fighter jets to investigate air targets moving toward the Danube Delta area and that two German Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft took off from Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base to carry out Enhanced Air Policing missions during the overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine.[5]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces conducted a drone strike against a kindergarten in Kharkiv Oblast on October 22, killing one and injuring seven.[6] Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office Head Amil Omerov told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on October 22 that Russian forces may have used jet-powered Geran-2 drones in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time to strike densely built-up civilian infrastructure, including the kindergarten.[7] Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russia used three Shahed (Geran) drones to strike a building in which a kindergarten operated.[8] Terekhov noted that all teachers and children evacuated in time to the basement shelter.
The United States announced new economic and military levers in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s persistent reticence to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The US Treasury announced on October 22 that its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing further sanctions on Russia as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to the process to end the war in Ukraine.[9] US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States is sanctioning Russian state oil company Rosneft and the private Russian oil company Lukoil – Russia’s two largest oil companies – and that the US Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support US President Donald Trump’s effort to end the war. OFAC also blocked all entities of which Rosneft or Lukoil directly or indirectly own 50 percent or more.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 22 that US officials stated that the Trump administration lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles, which use US intelligence for targeting, to strike Russian territory.[10] A source reportedly stated that the decision to lift the restrictions occurred before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump on October 17. The WSJ reported that two US officials stated that the Trump administration had not approved any Ukrainian Storm Shadow strikes until recently, when the authority for such strikes moved from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to US Commander of European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich. US officials reportedly stated that they expect Ukraine to conduct more Storm Shadow strikes against Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that elements of the Ukrainian Air Force, Ground Forces, and Navy struck the Bryansk Chemical Plant in Bryansk Oblast with Storm Shadow missiles on October 21.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the plant produces gunpowder, explosives, and components for rocket fuel. ISW continues to assess that economic instruments coupled with measures that allow Ukraine to maintain pressure on the battlefield are vital to push Putin to reconsider his theory of victory.[12]
Western reporting indicates that the United States called off the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia continued to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war demands in Ukraine. Fox News reported on October 22 that Trump called off a meeting with Putin in Budapest after Russia rejected Trump’s push for a ceasefire in Ukraine.[13] Trump stated on October 21 that he does not want to have a “wasted meeting.”[14] A White House official stated that there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting “in the immediate future.”[15] The Wall Street Journal reported that officials stated that the October 20 call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov showed that the Kremlin was not compromising on its long-held demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia and that Rubio subsequently briefed White House officials after the call, stating that a summit between Trump and Putin was unlikely to yield positive results.[16] Reuters reported that two US officials and a person familiar with the situation stated that Russia sent a non-paper (an informal diplomatic document) to the United States over the weekend of October 18-19 outlining Russian demands.[17] One US official stated that the communique reaffirmed Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, an implicit rejection of Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline. Reuters reported that Russia also re-emphasized its demand that a future peace agreement not include the deployment of NATO troops to Ukrainian territory. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov statedon October 22 that Putin has “repeatedly” and “clearly” stated Russia’s position and that Russia’s stance is “well-known.”[18] Peskov’s October 22 statement is a continuation of recent Kremlin statements demonstrating Russia’s unwillingness to agree to US- and Ukrainian-backed proposals for an immediate ceasefire and Russia’s commitment to its maximalist war demands.[19]
Ukraine and its European allies are reportedly developing a 12-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine that includes multiple points that the Kremlin has already designated as non-starters. Bloomberg and the Telegraph reported on October 21 that sources familiar with the matter stated that Ukrainian and European leaders are developing a peace plan and that a “peace board” that US President Donald Trump would chair would oversee its implementation.[32] The sources stated that the plan calls for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of further territorial advances.[33] The proposal calls for Russia to repatriate all deported Ukrainian children and for both sides to exchange prisoners. The sources stated that the proposal also calls for Ukraine to receive security guarantees, funding for reconstruction, and a path towards “rapid” EU accession. Bloomberg stated that unspecified actors would gradually lift sanctions against Russia if Russia agreed to the plan, but did not specify which sanctions. The plan proposes that the West return Russia’s roughly $300 billion in frozen assets only if Russia contributes to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Western states would reportedly reinstate sanctions and freeze Russian assets if Russia attacks Ukraine again. The plan calls for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate the governance of occupied territories, but noted that Europe and Ukraine will not legally recognize any occupied territory as Russian. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte met with Trump on October 22, reportedly to present the proposal to Trump.[34]
The reported plan is in line with Trump’s proposal for an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline, to which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already agreed and which Ukraine’s European allies support.[35] The Kremlin has repeatedly publicly expressed its opposition to a ceasefire and continues to reiterate Russia’s commitment to achieving its original war goals – as evidenced by the non-paper that Russia reportedly sent to the United States, outlining its demands for Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and rejecting Trump’s proposed freezing of the frontline.[36] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war aims and is refusing to engage in good-faith negotiations – in contrast to Ukraine.[37]
Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial enterprises overnight on October 21 and 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 22 that Ukrainian forces struck a processing unit of the Makhachkala Oil Refinery in the Republic of Dagestan, which has an annual production capacity of one million tons and provides fuel for Russia’s Caspian Flotilla naval base.[44] Footage published on October 22 shows an explosion at an industrial area in Makhachkala.[45] Republic of Dagestan Head Sergei Melikov acknowledged on October 22 that Ukrainian drones struck an unspecified enterprise in the region.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Saransk Mechanical Plant in the Republic of Mordovia, which produces anti-personnel engineering ammunition and mining kits, ammunition detonators, and initiation units.[47] Geolocated footage published on October 22 shows an explosion at the Saransk Mechanical Plant, and Republic of Mordovia Governor Artem Zdunov claimed that an overnight Ukrainian strike damaged an unspecified facility in the region.[48] Ukrainian intelligence sources told Ukrainian outlets on October 21 and 22 that an overnight explosion occurred at a section of the Pskov-St. Petersburg railway line, which the Russian military frequently uses, and stated that the explosion caused significant damage and disrupted logistics.[49]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces conducted a large combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 21 and 22 and struck a Ukrainian kindergarten on the morning of October 22.
- The United States announced new economic and military levers in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s persistent reticence to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
- Western reporting indicates that the United States called off the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia continued to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war demands in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is setting conditions to exculpate itself for the likely failure of future peace negotiations due to its own unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations.
- The Kremlin is using pre-planned strategic missile tests to further its ongoing rhetorical effort to push the United States to agree to concessions on the war in Ukraine in return for US-Russian arms control talks.
- Ukraine and its European allies are reportedly developing a 12-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine that includes multiple points that the Kremlin has already designated as non-starters.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced plans to deploy active reservists to protect infrastructure in the Russian rear, in part to obfuscate likely Kremlin efforts to prepare to deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine in the future.
- Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial enterprises overnight on October 21 and 22.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces advanced near Lyman.