Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in and around Pokrovsk to seize the town. Geolocated footage published on October 31 and November 1 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central and southeastern Pokrovsk.[1] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced in central Pokrovsk beyond what the geolocated footage supports, in northeastern Pokrovsk, and northeast of Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[2] A senior officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction told Ukrainian outlet Hromadske on October 31 that Russian forces are operating in roughly 60 percent of Pokrovsk and have entered Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk) and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).[3] Geolocated footage published on October 31 and November 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces maintained positions or recently advanced in central Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[4] The chief sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade operating to the east in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area (northeast of Pokrovsk) reported on November 1 that Russian forces significantly decreased offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction after a failed mechanized assault on October 27 and suggested that Russian forces may have redeployed forces from this direction to reinforce Russian efforts against Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.[5] A Ukrainian drone operator operating in Pokrovsk indicated to Hromadske that Russian forces are tactically isolating some Ukrainian positions.[6] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction told Hromadske that Ukrainian logistics in the direction are “complicated” but that Russian forces have not cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). A Ukrainian servicemember operating in Myrnohrad told Hromadske that the Russian forces operating in northern Pokrovsk and northeastern Myrnohrad “feel completely at ease” and that Russian first-person view (FPV) drone operators are within range to interdict Ukrainian GLOCs connecting Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. An officer of a Ukrainian unit operating in Myrnohrad told Hromadske that Russian forces have almost complete fire control over the narrow Ukrainian GLOC supplying Myrnohrad. The porous nature of the frontline and ubiquity of drones in this area continue to obscure the tactical picture in Pokrovsk, and ISW will provide an updated assessment as the situation becomes clearer.
Ukrainian forces conducted a heliborne air assault operation west of Pokrovsk on October 31. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on November 1 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful air assault operation near Pokrovsk.[7] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sources told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on October 31 that elements of the GUR Special Forces conducted the operation, which involved multiple helicopters, and entered areas that the Russian military command previously claimed to have seized.[8] The GUR sources stated that these areas are critically important for Ukrainian logistics in the Pokrovsk direction. Geolocated footage published on October 31 shows Ukrainian servicemembers disembarking from a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter west of Pokrovsk in an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on November 1 that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian counterattack.[10] A Russian milblogger noted on November 1 that the ability of Ukrainian helicopters to penetrate into airspace saturated with Russian drones without sustaining losses “raises questions,” presumably about the strength of the Russian air defense umbrella in the Pokrovsk direction.[11]
Close combat, urban terrain, and weather conditions are impacting Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare and Russian infiltration tactics in and around Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian officer told Hromadske on October 31 that Ukrainian infantry operating on the forward edges do not regularly engage Russian forces in close combat, as Russian forces instead engage Ukrainian drone and mortar crews in near rear areas.[12] ISW has recently observed reports that Russian infiltration groups are deliberately engaging Ukrainian drone and artillery crews in Pokrovsk to inhibit Ukrainian strikes.[13] A Ukrainian drone operator told Hromadske that the threat of Russian infiltration groups is forcing Ukrainian drone operators to limit the duration of drone flights because the drone operators also have to engage in small arms combat to repel Russian infiltrations in the near rear.[14] The Ukrainian drone operator stated that constant Russian infiltrations into Pokrovsk are forcing Ukrainian forces to pull back the second echelon of drone operators, preventing Ukrainian forces from striking Russian forces on the outskirts of Pokrovsk. A high-ranking Ukrainian officer told Hromadske that about 30 to 40 Russian personnel can infiltrate into Pokrovsk when rainy or foggy weather inhibits Ukrainian drone operations, while no more than 10 Russian soldiers can infiltrate during fair weather when Ukrainian forces can operate drones. ISW has observed reports that Russian forces intensify infiltration efforts during poor weather and that precipitation inhibits both Russian and Ukrainian drone operations.[15] Another Ukrainian drone pilot indicated to Hromadske that Russian and Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk are fighting for control over high-rise buildings and elevated terrain from which to conduct drone operations, particularly against enemy GLOCs at a distance of 30 kilometers.[16]
Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Moscow Oblast on the night of October 31 to November 1. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian forces struck three lines of the Koltsevoy oil refinery in Ramensky Raion, Moscow Oblast, and geolocated footage published on October 31 shows explosions at the pipeline.[17] The GUR reported that the Koltsevoy pipeline is 400 kilometers long and transports fuel from the Ryazan, Novgorod, and Moscow oil refineries. The GUR reported that the Koltsevoy pipeline could pump up to 7.4 million tons of fuel annually, including three million tons of aviation fuel, 2.8 million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.6 million tons of gasoline. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces downed 11 drones over Moscow Oblast overnight.[18]
Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the third time in three days, and German officials reported an unidentified drone incursion near the Berlin Brandenburg Airport. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported on October 31 that two Polish MiG-29 fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace over the Baltic Sea on October 31.[19] The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command noted that the Russian aircraft was operating without a registered flight plan or an active transponder but did not violate Polish airspace. Polish fighter jets also intercepted Russian reconnaissance aircraft on October 29 and 30.[20] German authorities at the Berlin Brandenburg Airport confirmed on November 1 that German police spotted an unidentified drone flying near the airport on the evening of October 31, forcing the airport to suspend flights for two hours and divert 11 aircraft.[21]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in and around Pokrovsk to seize the town.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a heliborne air assault operation west of Pokrovsk on October 31.
- Close combat, urban terrain, and weather conditions are impacting Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare and Russian infiltration tactics in and around Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Moscow Oblast on the night of October 31 to November 1.
- Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the third time in three days, and German officials reported an unidentified drone incursion near the Berlin Brandenburg Airport.
- Russian authorities continue cracking down on Russian social media sources who share insider information about the Kremlin and Russian security services.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk.