Institute for the Study of War:  Ukraine’s defense of Pokrovsk in ‘difficult’ phase

The situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult as Ukrainian forces fight to hold the shoulders of the pocket and Russian forces continue to advance in the area. Ukrainian forces reportedly recently cleared Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), in an attempt to hold the northern shoulder of the pocket.[1] Ukrainian forces are simultaneously counterattacking within Pokrovsk and on its western outskirts to prevent further Russian advances on the southern shoulder of the pocket.[2] Russian advances in northern and western Pokrovsk have slowed in recent days, likely due to continued Ukrainian efforts to counterattack.[3] Russian forces continue to advance in eastern and southern Pokrovsk, which could indicate that Russian forces may attempt to create a sub-pocket to support Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces in the town and ultimately force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the broader pocket. Russian forces also likely maintain fire control over Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into the pocket, complicating Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces appear to be working simultaneously to complete the encirclement of the entire pocket and to reduce the pocket itself. The prospects and timeline for those efforts remain unclear.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on November 10 that Ukrainian forces cleared Rodynske, and geolocated footage published on November 10 indicates that Ukrainian and Russian forces both recently advanced in southern Rodynske, in part contradicting Mashovets’ report.[4] Additional geolocated footage published on November 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Zatyshok (northeast of Pokrovsk).[5] Geolocated footage published on November 10 shows two Russian servicemembers raising flags along the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Dobropillya highway in southern Hnativka (east of Pokrovsk), in what ISW assesses was an infiltration mission that did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA).[6] Ukrainian military sources reported on November 9 and 10 that Russian forces have resumed a higher intensity of assaults in the Pokrovsk direction and continue to suffer heavy losses.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff’s 0800 November 10 situation report, which covers activity between 0800 November 19 and 0800 November 10, reported that there were 265 combat engagements along the entire front line — 97 of which were in the Pokrovsk direction alone.[8] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on November 9 that the Russian military command had committed 170,000 servicemembers to offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction but that Russian forces suffered a record 25,000 killed and wounded in the area in October 2025 alone.[9] Russian forces reportedly suffered roughly 15,000 casualties in the Pokrovsk direction in January 2025, by comparison.[10]

The Kremlin continues to publicly and clearly reiterate its maximalist demands and unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on November 10 that Russia will only end the war when it achieves the “goals that it set initially.” Kremlin officials have routinely referred to the need for any future peace settlement to eliminate the alleged “root causes” of the war, which Russian officials have defined as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian speakers.[11] The Kremlin’s original war aims include the removal of the current Ukrainian government, the installation of a pro-Russian puppet government, Ukraine’s commitment not to join NATO, and the revocation of NATO’s Open Door Policy.

Key Takeaways

1. The situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult as Ukrainian forces fight to hold the shoulders of the pocket and Russian forces continue to advance in the area.
2. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
3. The Kremlin continues to publicly and clearly reiterate its maximalist demands and unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation.
4. The Kremlin has begun involuntary partial reserve call-ups as part of its wider initiative to build out its active reserve, likely for use in combat in Ukraine.
5. The head of a major Russian bank acknowledged Russia’s economic struggles in a high-level meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
6. Officials continue to report aerial incursions in Belgian airspace.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole and in the Dobropillya tactical area.