Russian state media is leveraging Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure itself militarily. ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger observed that the Russian state media, following Putin’s November 27 press conference, is widely spreading false claims that the frontline in Ukraine is collapsing as Ukrainian forces desert and surrender en masse and leave large areas undefended; that Russian forces will soon drive on Kyiv City; and that Russian forces have already defeated Ukrainian forces and only have to “finish them off.”[1] The milblogger accused Russian state media of fabricating some territorial successes and amplifying Putin’s exaggerated claims, using artificial intelligence (AI) to generate fake videos of Ukrainian forces surrendering, and deliberately targeting social media users. Russian state media is also trying to reinforce the Kremlin’s efforts to create a perception that Russian forces will inevitably collapse sectors of the frontline in Ukraine, destroy Ukraine’s most combat-capable elite units, and degrade the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian military writ large — and that Ukraine and the West should therefore immediately concede to Russia’s demands before the situation worsens for Ukraine.[2]
The milblogger affirmed that the frontline is not collapsing; that Russia is far from victory; that Russian forces maintain the initiative at high personnel and materiel costs; that Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in positional warfare along the entire frontline; and that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking — all of which coheres with all available open-source evidence from the battlefield.[3] The milblogger stated that Ukrainian forces continue defending in Kharkiv Oblast, including attempting to counterattack in eastern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and fiercely resisting Russian assaults in Kupyansk and Borova directions (on the east [left] bank of the Oskil River). The milblogger’s battlefield assessment notably contradicts Putin’s November 27 claim that Russian forces have completed the seizure of Kupyansk and seized most of Vovchansk, and that Ukrainian forces are unable to defend against Russian assaults near the Oskil River. The milblogger also undermined Putin’s claim that Russia is actively pursuing several encirclements and is forcing Ukrainian forces to abandon entire defensive lines. The milblogger stated that Ukrainian forces are retreating from certain tactical areas, but that these instances do not mean that Ukrainian forces are entirely abandoning defensive lines. The milblogger explained that the Ukrainian military command sometimes withdraws Ukrainian forces to reinforce other sectors of the frontline or in other to avoid encirclement – all tactics that Russian forces also actively use on the battlefield in line with standard warfighting practices. ISW continues to assess that while the situation in some specific sectors of the frontline is serious, particularly in Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions, Putin’s and Russian state media’s assertions are exaggerated and do not correspond to the battlefield reality they claim to represent. It is notable that the Kremlin’s misrepresentation of the situation on the ground was so far from reality that a prominent pro-war Russian blogger felt compelled to issue his own corrective statement.
Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast overnight on November 28 and 29, killing at least three civilians and injuring at least 52.[4] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 36 missiles — five Kinzhal and four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 23 Kh-101/Iskander-K and four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles — and 596 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other strike drones.[5] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down or suppressed 558 drones and one Kinzhal missile; 12 Kh-101/Iskander-K, four Iskander-M, and two Kh-59/69 missiles — but that 35 Russian drones and an unspecified number of missiles struck 22 locations. The Ukrainian Air Force added that debris of intercepted missiles and drones fell in 17 locations. Ukrainian officials, including Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy, stated that Russian forces struck energy infrastructure facilities in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Kharkiv oblasts, leaving over 500,000 energy customers in Kyiv City, 100,000 in Kyiv Oblast, and nearly 8,000 in Kharkiv Oblast without power.[6] Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast officials reported that Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure killed at least three people and injured at least 52, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck the cargo terminal of the Nova Poshta postal service in Kyiv City.[7] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian strikes aim to undermine Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025 to 2026.[8]
Russian forces are supporting offensive operations along the frontlines and appear to be targeting Ukrainian aircraft involved in air defense operations with modified Shahed (Geran) drones. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that Russian developers recently modernized communications and navigation systems in Geran-2 strike drones, allowing Russian forces to pilot these drones in real time.[9] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister for Innovation Lieutenant Colonel Yurii Myronenko told the Business Insider in an article published on November 27 that Russian forces recently started using operator-controlled Shahed drones, which communicate via antennas in occupied Ukraine, in strikes near the frontlines (as opposed to Shahed drones with preplanned routes and targets that Russian forces have historically used in strikes against Ukraine’s deep rear areas).[10] Myronenko stated that it is more challenging for Ukrainian forces to counter these Shaheds because Russian drone operators can quickly react and engage with Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft or helicopters, which Ukrainian forces have been using to shoot down Russian drones. Business Insider noted that there have been no confirmed instances of Russian Shahed drones intercepting Ukrainian aircraft at this time. A serviceman of the Ukrainian 4th Special Purpose Regiment told Business Insider that increased Russian Shahed production rates are enabling Russian forces to increasingly use Shaheds to support offensive operations along the frontline. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) also reported that Russian forces are actively using the new Iranian-produced Shahed-107 drones on the battlefield in Ukraine.[11] ISW reported that Russian forces augmented their offensive operations against Pokrovsk with Shahed drone strikes over Spring-Summer 2025 and began to pursue moving targets, such as trains, with modified Shahed drones as early as October 2025.[12]
Ukrainian forces recently struck two Russian shadow fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea — the first time Ukrainian forces attacked shadow fleet vessels. Ukrainian forces also struck a marine terminal with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) amid continued drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and military infrastructure. A source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on November 29 that the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy conducted a joint strike against the KAIRO and VIRAT oil tankers — both of which are sanctioned as being part of Russia’s shadow fleet — in the Black Sea with modernized Sea Baby USVs.[13] The source shared footage showing the USVs striking the tankers and stated that the strike caused critical damage and effectively decommissioned the tankers. The source stated that the oil tankers were empty and were heading towards the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai at the time of the strike. Geolocated footage published on November 28 and 29 shows the KAIRO tanker burning northeast of Istanbul in the Black Sea.[14] Türkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported on November 29 that the Turkish General Directorate of Coastal Safety evacuated 25 personnel from the KAIROS tanker and that evacuation teams are waiting at a safe distance to begin rescue operations for personnel on the VIRAT tanker.[15] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Gambian-flagged tankers and accused Ukraine of violating an informal “non-aggression pact” with Russia for the grain corridor in the Black Sea in an effort to falsely portray Ukraine as an untrustworthy negotiator amidst the peace deal negotiations.[16] Russia formally withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, 2023, which allowed safe exports of grain through the Black Sea, not operations of the Russian shadow fleet.[17] Other Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Black Sea Fleet command for failing to defend against Ukrainian recurrent USV strikes and for withdrawing vessels from ports in occupied Crimea.[18]
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) international oil transportation initiative reported that Ukrainian USVs damaged one of the outrigger mooring devices at the CPC marine terminal near Novorossiysk on November 29.[19] The CPC reported that Novorossiysk suspended loading and other operations at the terminal and that the CPC towed tankers from the terminal. The CPC stated that emergency protection systems shut down oil pipelines and that no oil spilled into the Black Sea as a result of the strike.
The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported that USF and Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) elements jointly struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of November 28 to 29.[20] The USF reported that Afipsky Oil Refinery is a key oil refining enterprise in southern Russia that has a refining capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year — or 2.1 percent of Russia’s total oil refining capacity. Geolocated footage published on November 29 shows a fire at the Afipsky Oil Refinery, and the USF reported that Ukraine is clarifying the outcome of the strike.[21] A local Krasnodar Krai source reported that Ukrainian drone strikes started a 250-square-meter fire at the refinery and damaged technical equipment but did not damage the fuel storage tanks.[22] The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on November 29 that Ukrainian strikes destroyed a RV-5000 vertical tank at the Tuapse Marine Oil Terminal in Krasnodar Krai on November 25.[23]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Beriev Aircraft Repair Plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast overnight on November 29, causing a fire at the repair shop for the Tu-95 strategic bomber aircraft.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia uses the repair plant to modernize the Tu-95s and the A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. Footage published on November 28 also shows the storage facility for Shahed batteries on fire at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, but the cause of the fire is unclear.[25]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov is leading a Ukrainian delegation to the United States. Zelensky stated on November 29 that a Ukrainian delegation departed for the United States to further develop the results of the November 23 US-European-Ukrainian talks in Geneva.[34] Umerov replaced former Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak as the head of Ukraine’s negotiating team.
Key Takeaways
- Russian state media is leveraging Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure itself militarily. ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse.
- Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast overnight on November 28 and 29, killing at least three civilians and injuring at least 52.
- Ukrainian forces recently struck two Russian shadow fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea — the first time Ukrainian forces attacked shadow fleet vessels. Ukrainian forces also struck and a marine terminal with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) amid continued drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and military infrastructure.
- The Russian economy continues to show signs of fracturing as Russia continues to prioritize its war time economy over stability.
- Balloons from Belarusian airspace continued incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania overnight on November 28 to 29.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov is leading a Ukrainian delegation to the United States.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Kupyansk.