Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8 to 9, likely as part of the Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched a medium-range ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast overnight, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Russian forces used an Oreshnik missile.[1] Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) posted pictures on January 9 of fragments from the Oreshnik missile in Lviv Oblast and reported that Russian forces launched the missile from Kapustin Yar.[2] Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda stated that Ukrainian monitoring channels reported that Russian forces may have used an Oreshnik missile without a warhead, and the BBC’s Russia service similarly assessed that the warhead most likely carried dummy warheads.[3] Lviv City Mayor Andriy Sadovyi stated that the strike marked the first time a Russian ballistic missile struck Lviv Oblast.[4] Russian forces have struck Lviv Oblast with drones and non-ballistic missiles before.[5]
A local Ukrainian Telegram channel and some Russian milbloggers, citing unspecified local Ukrainian Telegram channels, claimed that the missile may have targeted the underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv Oblast, but Ukrainian officials and expert sources denied these claims.[6] Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Member Serhiy Nahornyak stated that Lviv Oblast suffered gas supply problems due to the shockwave from the Oreshnik strike, but that the region’s gas infrastructure was not the target of the strike.[7] Nahornyak stated that Russian forces struck a facility that is not connected to gas supplies and that there was no critical damage to gas infrastructure in Lviv Oblast. Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov noted that the Oreshnik strike against Lviv Oblast pierced two floors and burned an archive housing documents in a basement, and that Russian claims about a deep strike penetrating dozens of meters into the ground are unrealistic.[8] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger noted that the Oreshnik with a conventional warhead could not have damaged the underground gas storage facility, as the facility is hundreds of meters underground and would require either a nuclear weapon or an extremely powerful “seismic” impact to cause even partial damage.[9] Another Russian milblogger noted that the available footage of the strike does not show the “expected” explosion.[10]
The Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine. The Russian MoD attempted to justify the strike as a response to the claimed Ukrainian drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29.[11] Western media outlets reported that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) found that there was no attempted strike against Putin’s residence, however, in line with ISW’s assessment.[12] The Oreshnik strike was likely instead part of Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling and aimed to scare Western countries from providing military support to Ukraine, particularly from deploying forces to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. The Coalition of the Willing has recently been working to finalize the details of security guarantees for post-war Ukraine, including the deployment of a multinational assurance force to Ukraine.[13] The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that such Western security guarantees would be “unacceptable” for Russia and that foreign troops would be “legitimate” targets for the Russian military.[14] The use of a nuclear-capable missile with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload targeting far-western Ukraine was likely meant to threaten the Coalition of the Willing and deter such troop deployments, which would likely enter Ukraine from the west and could potentially operate away from the front line in western Ukraine. Putin framed Russia’s first use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in November 2024 as a direct response to Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes against military objects in Russia, demonstrating how Russia has used the Oreshnik to conduct performative strikes in the past to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.[15]
Russian forces conducted a long-range combined drone and missile strike on the night of January 8 to 9 that resulted in massive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-400 air defense missiles from Bryansk Oblast, 22 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, and one medium-range ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast.[16] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 242 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which roughly 150 were Shahed drones — from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Donetsk Oblast; and occupied Cape Chauda and Hvardiiske, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 226 drones, eight Iskander-M/S-400 missiles, and 10 Kalibr missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 18 missiles and 16 drones struck 19 locations in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes damaged critical, residential, educational, and transport infrastructure in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.[17] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that four people in Kyiv City died, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported that the strikes injured at least 25 people.[18] Zelensky reported that Russian forces conducted a “double tap” strike against rescue workers responding to an initial strike against residential buildings in Kyiv City.[19] Geolocated footage published on January 9 shows a damaged ambulance in Kyiv City.[20] Zelensky noted that Russian drones damaged the Qatari Embassy in Kyiv City, which the embassy later confirmed.[21] Ukrainian officials reported that two Iskander-M missiles also struck civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring at least 23 and killing one.[22] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast during the day on January 9, damaging two civilian vessels.[23] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes significantly damaged electricity transmission systems and power generation infrastructure, leaving at least 500,000 consumers in Kyiv City and 3,000 in Chernihiv Oblast without power.[24] The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reported that Ukrainian authorities restored power to over one million people in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast after the Russian strikes on the night of January 7 to 8, but that over 34,000 people in the region remain without power as of the morning of January 9.[25]
The US Navy seized another oil tanker with links to Russia that was attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil. US Southern Command reported on January 9 that the US Navy and Department of Homeland Security boarded and seized the Olina oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea.[26] The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Olina has the same unique ship identifying number as the Minerva M, which the United States sanctioned in January 2025 for transporting Russian oil.[27] The WSJ reported that the Olina loaded 700,000 barrels of crude oil from a Venezuelan terminal on December 24, 2025. The Olina previously sailed under a Panamanian flag, and the international shipping registry listed the tanker as having an invalid registration for flying a false flag of Timor-Leste.[28] The ship last transmitted its position in mid-November 2025 near Venezuela.[29]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8 to 9, likely as part of the Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western support for Ukraine.
- The Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
- Russian forces conducted a long-range combined drone and missile strike on the night of January 8 to 9 that resulted in massive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast.
- The US Navy seized another oil tanker with links to Russia that was attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.