Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. Putin claimed on January 15 that Russia’s war in Ukraine is a “direct response” to the West ignoring Russia’s interests by expanding NATO, despite alleged public promises to Russia not to do so.[1] Russia issued ultimatums in late 2021 to NATO that amounted to the destruction of the alliance and required an overhaul of the European security architecture, including demands that NATO roll back to its 1997 borders.[2] Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that his demands are greater than those encapsulated in the US-proposed 28-point plan and subsequent peace plans.[3] Putin remains committed to his original war goals from 2021 and 2022, which extend beyond territory and are not limited to Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to forward the false narrative that Ukraine’s defenses are on the verge of collapse, but data on Russian gains since the start of the full-scale invasion demonstrates otherwise. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on January 15 that the situation is deteriorating for Ukraine every day and that Ukraine’s “corridor for decision-making” is “narrowing,” implying that Ukraine should give in to Russia’s demands now before Ukraine is unable to defend itself and must capitulate in the future.[4] Ukrainian defenses are not on the verge of collapse, however, and Ukrainian forces have been able to prevent Russian forces from militarily achieving Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of subjugating all of Ukraine. At the height of Russian gains in Ukraine in March 2022, Russian forces had seized 26.16 percent of Ukraine. The subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive to push Russian forces back from Kyiv City and northern Ukraine, however, reduced this to 20.21 percent by the end of April 2022. Russia’s territorial control continued to decrease to 17.84 percent by the end of 2022 following Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives. The extent of Russia’s control over Ukraine stayed relatively constant in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Russian forces controlled between 17.9 and 18.52 percent of Ukraine in 2023 and 2024, and this figure rose to 19.32 percent by the end of 2025. Russian forces have thus occupied an additional 1.5 percent of Ukraine’s territory in the last three years. Russian gains have been marginal and reduced to a foot pace as Russian forces have had to resort to highly attritional infantry-led assaults and have been unable to restore mechanized maneuver to the battlefield. Russian gains will likely continue to be slow and grinding and are unlikely to lead to a quick collapse of the frontline.
Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to offer demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains to forward the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian military victory is inevitable. Gerasimov claimed on January 15 that Russian forces are advancing in virtually all directions on the front and that Ukrainian attempts to stop Russian advances have been unsuccessful.[5] Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces seized more than 300 square kilometers of territory in the first two weeks of January 2026.[6] ISW has observed evidence indicating that Russian forces increased their presence (either through infiltration missions or assaults) in only 73.82 square kilometers between December 31 and January 13 — about one-quarter of the gains that Gerasimov claimed.
Gerasimov boasted about the seizure of two small, rural border villages in northern Ukraine as alleged evidence of extensive Russian successes on the battlefield. Gerasimov stated that Russian forces are expanding the buffer zone in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and specifically highlighted the recent seizure of Hrabovske (southwest of Sumy City) and claimed seizure of Komarivka (northwest of Sumy City).[7] The frontline in these areas has been largely dormant for years, and the recent limited Russian cross-border attacks into these small villages in late December 2025 and mid-January 2026 likely aimed to generate informational effects.[8] The Kremlin is trying to portray these small-scale attacks as the opening of a new sector of the front and evidence that Ukrainian defenses are collapsing across the theater. ISW continues to assess, however, that there are no indications that Russian forces are launching a major ground offensive in these areas.[9]
The Russian military command remains committed to its false claims that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary. Gerasimov claimed that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces continue to eliminate the surrounded Ukrainian forces on the east back of the Oskil River in the Kupyansk direction.[10] Gerasimov claimed that Ukrainian forces have tried to “demonstrate their presence” within Kupyansk, including through flag raisings, since the Russian military command claimed to have seized the town in November 2025.[11] Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces are engaged in street fighting in Kupyansk-Vuzhlovyi (south of Kupyansk) and are completing the seizure of the settlement.[12] Ukrainian forces have largely liberated most of Kupyansk and the surrounding area, however, despite Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev claiming on December 29 that Russian forces will complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk in January to February 2026.[13] Ukrainian forces are currently clearing the remaining Russian forces in the town, and President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on December 22 that only about 80 to 100 Russian servicemembers remained in the settlement.[14] Ukrainian forces have also largely eliminated the Russian presence near Kupyansk-Vuzhlovyi, demonstrating the extent of Gerasimov’s exaggerations. ISW only observed evidence on January 8 of Russian forces conducting an infiltration mission into eastern Podoly (just northeast of Kupyansk-Vuzhlovyi) and has not observed evidence of a Russian presence in or near Kupyansk-Vuzhlovyi since then.[15] Russian milbloggers, including many within the pro-war ultranationalist community, have acknowledged that the Russian military command’s repeated claims about Kupyansk are false.[16] Gerasimov’s January 15 claims are part of a demonstrated Kremlin pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield. These Kremlin efforts aim to spread the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and to convince Ukraine and the West that Ukraine should accept Russia’s demands now out of fear of future Russian offensives.
Key Takeaways
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO.
- The Kremlin continues to forward the false narrative that Ukraine’s defenses are on the verge of collapse, but data on Russian gains since the start of the full-scale invasion demonstrate otherwise.
- Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to offer demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains to forward the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian military victory is inevitable.
- The Russian military command remains committed to its false claims that Russian forces have seized Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary.
- Gerasimov’s January 15 claims are part of a demonstrated Kremlin pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield. These Kremlin efforts aim to spread the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and to convince Ukraine and the West that Ukraine should accept Russia’s demands now out of fear of future Russian offensives.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Slovyansk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.