Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Russian Western Grouping of Forces on January 16 and heard reports from the grouping commander, Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev.[1] Kuzovlev claimed that Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction seized Kucherivka (east of Kupyansk), Podoly, and Kurylivka (both southeast of Kupyansk) in December 2025. Belousov specifically asked if Russian forces are clearing Kupyansk, to which Kuzovlev responded that Russian forces control all areas of Kupyansk and that Ukrainian attempts to break through into the town have been unsuccessful. Belousov’s and Kuzovlev’s claims about Russian control over Kupyansk follow similar claims from Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov on January 15 about the seizure of Kupyansk and the imminent seizure of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk).[2] Senior Russian commanders have been issuing similar exaggerations about Kupyansk since November 2025.[3] Ukrainian forces have largely liberated most of Kupyansk and the surrounding area, however.[4] ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command is committing to its false claims about the seizure of Kupyansk, despite ample visual evidence and Ukrainian and Russian reporting to the contrary.[5]
Russian milbloggers, including a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger and multiple pro-war ultranationalist milbloggers, vehemently refuted the Russian military command’s repeated false claims about Kupyansk and nearby settlements. Russian milbloggers denied that Russian forces control Kupyansk, Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, Podoly, Kurylivka, and Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk), with some describing the Russian presence in Kupyansk as “several pockets of defense” and a “localized defense.”[6] The Kremlin-affiliated milblogger stated that there is video evidence showing a Ukrainian presence within Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.[7] The milblogger stated that footage from about one week ago (roughly January 9) shows Russian artillery continuing to fire on Podoly, despite the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claiming on January 4 that Russian forces had seized the settlement.[8] The milblogger stated that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces is “in no hurry” to stop sending “embellished” reports to higher-ups, directly citing Belousov’s January 16 meeting with Kuzovlev as an example.
A Russian milblogger reporting on the Western Grouping of Forces stated that Gerasimov’s presentation of a “parallel reality” failed to mention the surrounded Russian soldiers in Kupyansk, who held out “longer than anyone expected” but whom other Russian forces cannot reach.[9] The milblogger noted that only a “handful” of Russian forces have been able to reach Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, but that Ukrainian forces have already destroyed them. The milblogger stated that a group of Russian forces was filming a flag-raising video in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (likely to support Russian officials’ false claims of its seizure in the near future) before Ukrainian forces struck the group. The milblogger noted that the final moments of the video “will not be published anywhere.” The milblogger stated that Russian forces only recently reached Petropavlivka and Podoly but have been unable to gain control over the settlements, despite Russian MoD claims that Russian forces seized them as of November 21 and January 4, respectively.[10]
One Russian milblogger stated in direct response to Belousov’s January 16 meeting that statements about Russian control over Kupyansk are “not only inaccurate” but “do not even come close to reflecting the actual situation on the ground,” as Russian forces have not controlled Kupyansk “for a single day.”[11] Milbloggers widely complained about repeated “failures” in the area and criticized the practice of sending “beautiful reports” alleging Russian advances to higher-ups.[12] Russian milbloggers complained that the Western Grouping of Forces’ practice of “groundlessly” claiming advances is leading to insufficient Russian countermeasures to the Ukrainian offensive to liberate the area, high losses “in the hundreds”, difficulties in unit coordination, and “brutal” assaults.[13]
The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations. These Kremlin claims aim to spread the false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and to convince Ukraine and the West that Ukraine should accept Russia’s demands now out of fear of future Russian offensives or breakthroughs. Kupyansk has become a particular point of neuralgia for the Russian military command, likely due to the fear that the battlefield realities in the area will undermine the narratives about Russia’s military prowess that Putin and senior Russian military commanders have been trying to spread.
Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine.Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Russian oil and gas revenues in 2025 dropped to a five-year low amid declining gas exports due to Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices.[14] The Russian Ministry of Finance stated on January 15 that Russia’s federal budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles (roughly $108 billion USD) in oil and gas taxes in 2025, which Bloomberg noted is a decrease of 24 percent compared to 2024.[15] Bloomberg noted that Russia’s federal budget received fewer rubles for each barrel produced and sold in 2025 due to the strengthened ruble. The strengthened ruble increased Russia’s purchasing power on the global market, making parallel imports cheaper amid Western sanctions, but had adverse effects on Russia’s export profits.[16] Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30 percent of Russia’s total federal revenues in 2024 but fell 22 percent year on year in 2025.[17] Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged in September 2025 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales to fall by roughly 30 percent in 2026.[18]
Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war. Ukrainian drone charity Wild Hornets posted footage on January 15 showing Ukrainian forces successfully using a Sting interceptor drone to down a Russian jet powered Shahed (Geran) drone equipped with an R-60 air-to-air missile.[25] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on December 1 that Ukrainian forces downed for the first time a Russian Shahed drone equipped with an R-60 missile meant to destroy Ukrainian helicopters and tactical aircraft that hunt Shaheds, and Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) confirmed on December 15 that Russian forces modified their Shahed drones with the R-60 missiles.[26] Russian forces have continuously adapted their Shahed drones to maximize their damage potential, including a recent innovation of attaching man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) to Shaheds to target mobile components of the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.[27] Ukrainian and Russian forces have been engaged in an offense-defense technological race throughout the full-scale invasion, and Ukrainian forces have repeatedly innovated new air defense measures to combat modifications to Russia’s long-range strike campaign.[28] ISW continues to assess that Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program is vital not only for Ukraine’s defense against Russian strikes against the frontline and the rear but also for the defense of Europe.[29]
Ukraine’s European partners announced new aid to support the Ukrainian military and energy grid. The Finnish Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on January 16 that Finland will provide a military aid package worth 98 million euros (roughly $114 million) to Ukraine and that the contents of the package are classified.[35] Czech President Petr Pavel stated on January 16 that the Czech Republic will provide Ukraine with unspecified combat aircraft capable of downing drones and may also supply early warning systems, including passive radars.[36] United Kingdom Defense Secretary John Healy told Bloomberg on January 15 that the United Kingdom will open a business center in Kyiv City in 2026 to assist defense startups in accelerating sales of air defense systems and drones.[37] The United Kingdom announced on January 16 that it will provide 20 million pounds (roughly $26.7 million) to support repairs to Ukrainian energy infrastructure that intensified Russian strikes have damaged.[38] Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported on January 16 that Italy will provide Ukraine with about 80 industrial boilers worth a total of 1.85 million euros (roughly $2.1 million) and with capacities ranging from 550 to 3,000 kilowatts (kW).[39] Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide announced on January 12 that Norway will provide $200 million to Ukraine to restore energy infrastructure, including immediate energy needs and gas procurement.[40]
Key Takeaways
- Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
- The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations.
- Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine.
- Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
- Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war.
- Media reports suggest that a car accident seriously injured Adam Kadyrov, the son of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov and possible successor, but ISW cannot independently verify these reports.
- Ukraine’s European partners announced new aid to support the Ukrainian military and energy grid.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.