Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on January 17 that Russia is considering strikes on electricity transmission substations on which Ukrainian nuclear power plants depend to operate.[1] The GUR stated that Russia seeks to disconnect the nuclear power plants from Ukraine’s energy grid, leaving Ukrainian civilians without electricity and heat. Recent Russian strikes have threatened Ukrainian-controlled nuclear power plants. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi reported on January 16 that military activity damaged an electrical substation critical to Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant operations over the past week (roughly since January 12).[2] Grossi stated that IAEA teams have reported military activities or air raid alarms at all five nuclear sites in Ukraine over the past week. Zelensky stated on January 16 that Ukraine needs about 18 gigawatts of power to meet domestic consumption needs in the winter but that Ukraine’s power generation capacity can currently only produce 11 gigawatts of power — a number that would likely decrease significantly should Russian strikes disconnect one or more Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the energy grid.[3]
This warning comes as Russia continues its long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread blackouts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 201 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which 120 were Shahed-type drones —from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea; and occupied Donetsk City on the night of January 17 to 18.[4] Ukrainian officials indicated that 30 Russian drones struck 15 locations, including critical infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia cities and in Odesa Oblast.[5] Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on January 16 that Russian forces have struck every power plant in Ukraine since February 2022 and have inflicted 612 total strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.[6] Shmyhal noted that problems with energy are the most severe in Kyiv City and in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and other frontline oblasts.[7] Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko stated that Kyiv City only has half the electricity that it needs and called on residents to leave the city if possible.[8] ISW continues to assess that Russia has been attempting to split Ukraine’s energy grid and create energy islands that are cut off from Ukraine’s electricity generation, deliveries, and transmission systems.[9] ISW has also observed reports that Russian forces are striking Ukraine’s energy grid in an effort to divide it into two parts along an east-west divide.[10] Russia’s continued devastating strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure emphasizes Ukraine’s urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions, particularly amid reports that Russia’s campaign may soon turn toward nuclear power plants in the dead of winter.
Russian state media amplified a Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian politician’s statements to prepare the Russian domestic populace for the Kremlin’s rejection of peace in the near-team amid ongoing US, Ukrainian, and European negotiations. Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk — a close personal ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Putin initially wanted to install in place of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion — claimed in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS on January 18 that “there will be no peace in Ukraine in 2026.”[11] Medvedchuk also reiterated claims that “time is on the Kremlin’s side” and emphasized the Kremlin’s commitment to achieving its original war aims without negotiating with Ukraine. Medvedchuk also reiterated the Kremlin’s longstanding rhetoric falsely framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a war against the West, claiming that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, and rejecting Ukrainian elections (which the Kremlin itself has demanded to secure a peace deal) on anything but Russia’s terms.[12] Putin and Kremlin officials have repeatedly used these rhetorical lines to emphasize Russia’s commitment to its original war aims and its theory of victory that maintains that the Russian military and economy can outlast Ukraine and Western support for Ukraine — a theory the West can help disprove with support to Ukraine.[13] The Kremlin uses Medvedchuk to make more extreme statements than Putin and Kremlin officials themselves make through a voice claiming to represent Ukraine. The Kremlin is likely using Medvedchuk’s January 18 interview to justify Russia’s rejection of peace efforts to resolve its war in Ukraine. Medvedchuk’s statements come against the backdrop of ongoing US-European Union-Ukraine peace talks to develop a peace plan and the most recent round of Ukraine-US talks in Miami on January 16.[14] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin likely intends to reject outright any peace proposal that does not acquiesce to Russia’s full demands, including terms that result from the recent negotiations.[15]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.
- This warning comes as Russia continues its long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread blackouts.
- Russian state media amplified a Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian politician’s statements to prepare the Russian domestic populace for the Kremlin’s rejection of peace in the near-team amid ongoing US, Ukrainian, and European negotiations.
- Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.