Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia’s commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine, amid continued reporting that negotiations will resume in the coming days. Two US officials told Politico on January 24 that Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet in Abu Dhabi again on February 1.[1] US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated on January 24 that the Russian-Ukrainian-US trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi were “very productive” and confirmed that the delegations made plans to continue talks next week.[2] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated on January 24 Russia’s commitment to the alleged “fundamental understandings” that Russia claims that Russia and the US developed at the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit.[3] Kremlin officials have repeatedly exploited the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2024 Alaska summit to obfuscate Russia’s efforts to impede the peace process and claim that the summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine despite the lack of a clear joint outcome or communiqué.[4] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) amplified an interview from its Second Department of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Director Alexei Polischuk on January 25 in which he reiterated Russia’s commitment to resolving the so-called “root causes” of the war, which Polischuk defined as Ukrainian neutrality and non-nuclear status, restoring protections for ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, ousting Ukraine’s current government, and resolving “security threats” against Russia – all a restatement of elements of Russia’s original war aims.[5] Polishchuk also reiterated Russia’s rejection of postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, including the deployment of a foreign peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. Polishchuk stated that the negotiating parties should finalize a peace agreement before negotiating security guarantees, rejecting both the timeline and component agreements of the effort that US President Donald Trump’s team is leading.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov made a statement suggesting that the Kremlin is using its participation in ongoing negotiations with the United States to stave off a significant increase in US pressure against Russia that could impede its war effort.Peskov stated on January 24 that Trump’s “knee-jerk” foreign policy methods do not align with Russia’s own and that the Kremlin views these methods as designed to force others to “bend over the knee.”[6] Peskov claimed that those who “bend” to Trump “will continue to bend over” and that it is imperative that Russia not bend to Trump. The Kremlin has been pursuing a balancing act since February 2025 between posturing strength to its populace and allies while engaging the United States enough to avoid additional American pressure that could compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to compromise from his original war aims and engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war.[7] Peskov’s overt criticism of Trump’s mode of foreign policy and assertion that Russia must not compromise in the face of US pressure suggests that the Kremlin seeks to ensure that the Trump administration does not dole out additional restrictive measures directly against Russia. Peskov’s statement may be a tacit Kremlin acknowledgement of Russia’s own vulnerabilities to increased pressure. ISW continues to assess that the West, including the United States, has failed to invalidate Putin’s theory of victory and that the Kremlin has offered no indication of a willingness to compromise.[8] The United States and Europe may be able to invalidate Putin’s theory of victory and compel Russia to make concessions through additional pressure, such as augmenting Ukrainian military capabilities, sanctioning and seizing foreign Russian assets, and reducing Russia’s access to resources it needs to sustain its long-term war effort.[9]
Russia continues to intensify recruitment efforts for the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) that may also staff the conventional Russian ground forces. Russian state business outlet Kommersant reported on January 22 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a federal recruitment drive for contract soldiers in the Russian USF.[10] Kommersant reported that the Russian MoD is now offering one-year contracts stipulating that the MoD can only place the recruit in the USF, cannot transfer the recruit to non-USF units (such as infantry), and must discharge the recruit upon the expiration of the original contract if the recruit refuses to sign a renewal. Russian MoD representatives told Kommersant that the MoD seeks young candidates with analytical skills, computer proficiency, fine motor skills, and vestibular stability – prioritizing technological professionals and students. Other reporting suggests that the Russian MoD may use at least some individuals recruited for the USF in the conventional Russian ground forces, however. Russian opposition outlet Astra confirmed on January 24 that the Russian MoD has been conducting a recruitment campaign at Russian universities since mid-January 2026.[11] Astra spoke to students at Russian universities who attended a Russian MoD recruitment presentation and stated that the MoD forced students to sign an acknowledgement that they understood that the contract was for a year and that they could leave after one year of service. Astra reported that the Higher School of Economics in Moscow acknowledged in a separate response to a lawyer that Russian students were not signing a special contract for the USF but rather a standard MoD contract. Astra reported that the lawyer stated this standard contract could allow the Russian military command to assign these recruits as infantry and send them to the frontlines, possibly keeping the students in the military even after the expiration of the one-year contract. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is trying various means to increase recruitment to offset high casualties on the frontlines, which include using the need to protect critical infrastructure as a thin justification to conceal wider efforts to prepare active reservists for deployment.[12] The Kremlin has also concentrated compulsory partial call-up efforts in Russia‘s central regions to shield larger and more politically sensitive population centers, such as Moscow City, from compulsory force generation efforts.[13]
Key Takeaways
- Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia’s commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine, amid continued reporting that negotiations will resume in the coming days.
- Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov made a statement suggesting that the Kremlin is using its participation in ongoing negotiations with the United States to stave off a significant increase in US pressure against Russia that could impede its war effort.
- Russia continues to intensify recruitment efforts for the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) that may also staff the conventional Russian ground forces.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov as a Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology on January 25.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Novopavlivka.