The United States and Europe are finalizing security and economic guarantees with Ukraine that aim to deter future Russian aggression and rebuild Ukraine’s post-war economy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 25 that the US-Ukrainian document on US security guarantees for Ukraine is “100 percent ready” and that Ukraine is waiting for the United States to set a date and place for its signing.[1] Zelensky stated that the document will then go to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and the US Congress for ratification. Zelensky stated that Europe will provide another “layer” of security guarantees, including security guarantees from the Coalition of the Willing and Ukraine’s future European Union (EU) membership.[2] Zelensky stated that EU membership is an “economic security guarantee” and that Ukraine aims to join the EU in 2027. Long-term efforts to rebuild Ukraine’s economy, including by integrating Ukraine into the EU market, are essential for Ukraine’s future security and prosperity, but are not a substitute for robust security guarantees that deter future Russian aggression, such as those from the United States and Coalition of the Willing.[3] Such security and economic guarantees have emerged from the peace process that US President Donald Trump has led in recent weeks, and ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to push Trump to abandon this US-led process and concede to Russian demands.[4]
The Kremlin continues to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit to falsely portray Ukraine — not Russia — as the unwilling negotiating partner. Lead Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev claimed on January 26 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is delaying the peace process by not accepting territorial concessions.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the territorial issue, which Peskov claimed is part of the “Anchorage formula,” is fundamentally important to Russia.[6] Peskov claimed that it would be a “mistake” to expect any significant results from the recent Ukrainian-Russian-US trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi.[7] Russian State Duma Deputy from occupied Crimea, Mikhail Sheremet, claimed that Zelensky has abandoned the negotiation process by refusing to withdraw Ukrainian forces from Ukrainian-held parts of Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts).[8]
Kremlin officials have been claiming that the Alaska summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine, despite no publicly available joint documents or communiques emerging from the summit.[9] Kremlin officials have not specified the details of the alleged “Anchorage formula” but have insisted that Ukraine’s withdrawal from all of Donbas is an important condition for a peace settlement.[10] A source close to the Kremlin recently told Reuters that the Kremlin considers the “Anchorage formula” to include Ukraine ceding all of Donbas to Russia and freezing the current frontlines elsewhere in southern and eastern Ukraine.[11] The Kremlin has long demanded that Ukraine cede parts of Donetsk Oblast that Russian forces currently do not occupy.[12] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely only be able to complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast in August 2027, assuming Russian forces are able to maintain their late 2025 rate of advance.[13] The Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine cede the unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast in order to save Russia the time and resources needed to seize it militarily. Ukraine has made significant concessions as a result of the recent US-led peace talks, such as working to change Ukrainian laws to allow for elections during the current period of martial law.[14] The Kremlin is attempting to blame Ukraine for delaying the peace process despite Russia’s demonstrated unwillingness to offer any compromises on Russia’s original war aims.[15]
The Kremlin is reviving its use of nuclear arms control rhetoric to push the United States to make concessions on Ukraine in return for normalizing US-Russian relations. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev gave an interview to Russian state business outlet Kommersant published on January 26 about the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) nuclear arms control treaty, which expires on February 5, 2026.[16] Medvedev reiterated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer of informally agreeing to adhere to the terms of New START for another year upon its expiration, but only if the United States does the same. Medvedev claimed that the United States has not responded to this proposal and that the prospects of broader US-Russian arms control cooperation are dependent upon the United States accepting Putin’s proposal. Medvedev claimed that the United States and Russia must first normalize bilateral relations before Russia can cooperate on bilateral arms control measures. Medvedev also levied thinly veiled threats if the United States does not shift its focus away from peace efforts and toward normalizing US-Russia bilateral relations as the Kremlin desires. Medvedev claimed that US-Russian arms control cooperation contributes to strategic stability but warned that other states could seek nuclear weapons in the absence of this stability. Medvedev asserted that Russia will counter any threats to its security and referenced the Burevestnik and Oreshnik ballistic missiles and Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle that Russia debuted in 2024 and 2025.
Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly demonstrated that the Kremlin is not wavering from its original war demands and intends to achieve its objectives militarily if it cannot do so diplomatically.[17] Kremlin officials have often emphasized their commitment to Russia’s demands around high-profile negotiations, including following the August 2025 US-Russian summit in Alaska and the recent January 23 to 24 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi.[18] The Kremlin has been attempting to use the prospect of improved bilateral US-Russia relations to distract the United States from peace efforts in Ukraine since US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and began leveraging the New START treaty in this effort in Summer-Fall 2025.[19] The Kremlin likely aims to convince the United States to concede to Russian demands on Ukraine in return for improved bilateral US-Russian relations. The Kremlin may also aim to push the United States to abandon the peace process in Ukraine without finalizing a peace settlement in exchange for strategic arms talks, therefore allowing Russia to continue its war unimpeded and without US pressure to make meaningful concessions.
Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellite systems to extend the range of BM-35 strike drones to conduct mid-range strikes against the Ukrainian rear. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on January 26 that Russian forces used a Starlink-equipped BM-35 drone to strike Dnipro City (approximately 86 kilometers from the frontline) for the first time.[20] This strike comes less than two weeks after Beskrestnov reported the first recorded usage of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones on January 15.[21] Beskrestnov noted that the BM-35 drone is more fuel efficient than Russian Molniya fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones and has a range of up to 500 kilometers. ISW has only observed evidence that the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies is fielding BM-35 drones to date.[22] Russian forces first began fielding the BM-35 in September 2025 and intensified BM-35 strikes in early January 2026.[23] Russian milbloggers and the Rubikon Center itself claimed that Rubikon drone operators employed BM-35s in January 12 to 13 strikes on cargo vessels near Odesa City and a January 17 strike against a Patriot air defense system southwest of Kharkiv City.[24] Russian forces appear to be increasingly relying on Starlinks to increase the range of operation of strike drones while increasing drone resilience against Ukrainian EW. The reported 500-kilometer range of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones places most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, and parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania in range of these drones if launched from Russia or occupied Ukraine. ISW has observed reports of Starlink-equipped Shahed long-range strike drones beginning in September 2024 and of Rubikon equipping Molniya strike drones with Starlink systems beginning in December 2025.[25] ISW continues to assess that Russian mid-range strikes, especially those conducted by Rubikon units, seek to exploit Ukraine’s scarcity of air defense systems.[26] The threat of Russian mid-range strikes underscores Ukraine’s urgent need for point-defense air defense systems to down drones, as electronic warfare (EW) systems are likely insufficient to defend Ukraine’s critical infrastructure from such a geographically pervasive threat.[27]
Key Takeaways
- The United States and Europe are finalizing security and economic guarantees with Ukraine that aim to deter future Russian aggression and rebuild Ukraine’s post-war economy.
- The Kremlin continues to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit to falsely portray Ukraine — not Russia — as the unwilling negotiating partner.
- The Kremlin is reviving its use of nuclear arms control rhetoric to push the United States to make concessions on Ukraine in return for normalizing US-Russian relations.
- Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellite systems to extend the range of BM-35 strike drones to conduct mid-range strikes against the Ukrainian rear.
- Russia’s domestic populace is increasingly bearing the economic costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, in the Dobropillya tactical area, and near Slovyansk.