Institute for the Study of War: U.S. presses Ukraine to hand over Donetsk in exchange for security guarantees

The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to cede the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian concessions of territory that Russia is unlikely to seize quickly or easily militarily would be a strategic mistake.[1] The Financial Times (FT) reported on January 27, citing sources familiar with ongoing peace talks, that the Trump administration is signaling that the United States’ provision of security guarantees to Ukraine is contingent on Ukraine agreeing to a peace settlement that would likely involve ceding all of the territory of Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts) to Russia.[2] Two FT sources stated that the United States suggested that it would provide more weaponry to bolster Ukraine’s peacetime forces if Ukraine agreed to withdraw from all of Donbas. Two sources indicated that the proposed US security guarantees include a pledge that “mirrors” NATO’s Article 5 clause and a promise to conduct a coordinated military response in the case of a “sustained” Russian attack against post-war Ukraine. One of the sources suggested that the proposed guarantees may be “too vague” for Ukraine but “too broad” for Russia.

ISW continues to assess that Russia would need to expend significant amounts of resources, time, and personnel to seize the rest of Donbas.[3] Russian forces are unlikely to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast before August 2027, assuming Russian forces are able to sustain their rate of advance from late November 2025.[4] The Russian rate of advance slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026, likely in part due to adverse weather conditions, and Russian efforts to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast could take longer than ISW previously forecasted.[5] A Ukrainian withdrawal from Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk Oblast would put Russian forces in more advantageous positions to renew attacks against southwestern and central Ukraine in the future after rest and reconstitution.[6] A strong Ukrainian military and robust Western security guarantees are necessary to effectively deter such future Russian aggression, but Russian officials have repeatedly rejected these security guarantees.[7] Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergei Naryshkin, for example, claimed on January 26 that European states in the Coalition of the Willing are imposing conditions on a peace settlement that are “completely unacceptable” to Russia – likely referring to the coalition’s efforts to finalize a plan to deploy troops to post-war Ukraine.[8] Russian State Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlyov explicitly rejected on January 27 the deployment of troops from NATO states in post-war Ukraine.[9] The Kremlin remains unlikely to accept any settlement that includes meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin’s continued refusal of security guarantees for Ukraine and persistent dismissals of the negotiating process suggests that it remains committed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory — the theory that Russia can win in Ukraine by outlasting Ukraine’s ability to fight and the West’s desire to support Ukraine.[10]

The Russian military command continues to present demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov inspected the Russian Western Grouping of Forces on January 27 and heard reports from the grouping commander, Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev.[11] Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces are advancing in virtually all directions on the battlefield and have seized 17 settlements and over 500 square kilometers since January 1. ISW has observed evidence indicating that Russian forces advanced or established a presence following infiltration missions in only 265.45 square kilometers between January 1 and 27, however. Gerasimov further claimed that the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces advanced within 12 to 14 kilometers of the southern and southeastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia City.[12] ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have advanced to roughly 18 kilometers south of the city, however. Gerasimov highlighted that Russian forces are expanding the “buffer zones” in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[13] Gerasimov stated that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces, which has been concentrating on seizing Pokrovsk, is now developing an offensive toward Dobropillya (north of Pokrovsk).

Key Takeaways

1. The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to cede the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian concessions of territory that Russia is unlikely to seize quickly or easily militarily would be a strategic mistake.
2. The Russian military command continues to present demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily.
3. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been lying about the scale of Russian advances for months, provoking repeated criticisms from even pro-war Russian milbloggers.
4. The Russian military command has been boasting about the seizure of small, rural villages and presenting these seizures as alleged evidence of the prowess of the Russian military to further the false narrative that Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
5. Russian officials continue to indicate that Russia’s demands go beyond control of territory in eastern Ukraine, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to claim to Western audiences that Donbas is the main issue in ongoing peace talks.
6. Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet all of its demands and is instead using informational tools to push for Ukraine’s pre-emptive capitulation.
7. Russian forces conducted a Shahed drone strike against a civilian passenger train in Kharkiv Oblast on January 27, killing at least five people.
8. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes on the battlefield, including in areas where Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations.
9. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Pokrovsk.