Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February 1, causing significant civilian casualties. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia City with unspecified drones during the day on February 1, starting a fire in the gynecological department’s reception area and injuring at least six people.[1] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces also struck mines belonging to Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on February 1.[2] Ukrainian officials reported that four Shahed drones struck a DTEK bus carrying miners near Ternivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at least 12 people and injuring at least 16.[3] ISW continues to assess that Russia is prioritizing strikes against civilians to continue its long-standing campaign to demoralize the Ukrainian populace.[4]
The Kremlin continues to use issues unrelated to its war in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to give in to Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations would hold the next round of trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi on February 4 and 5, not on February 1 as initially planned.[5] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on February 1 to try to curry favor with the Trump administration ahead of the upcoming meetings and to convince the United States to only engage in negotiations with Russia, not Ukraine and Europe.[6] Lavrov compared Russia to the United States as a fellow great power and claimed that the two countries need to implement bilateral economic and trade projects while being sure not to allow any differences to lead to a confrontation, especially a “heated one.” Lavrov further claimed that Europe is trying to “drive wedges” between Russia and the United States. The Kremlin has been using a negotiation tactic that tries to frame Russia as a global power comparable to the United States and as an heir to the Soviet Union’s “superpower status” since US President Donald Trump assumed office in early 2025.[7] Lavrov’s February 1 statements aim to use the prospects of economic deals or strategic arms talks to entice Trump into conceding to Russia’s demands about Ukraine, including the Kremlin’s demands that the United States not engage Europe in the peace process.
Insider reports continue to demonstrate that Russia is trying to portray itself to external audiences as a willing negotiator in order to gain control over all of Donetsk Oblast through diplomatic means. Bloomberg reported on January 31, citing unspecified knowledgeable sources, that Russia sees little chance of a breakthrough during ongoing peace talks.[8] The sources noted that Russian and Ukrainian military delegations have been discussing the technical details of a possible ceasefire implementation agreement, but assessed that a resolution to territorial issues will require leadership-level decisions. The sources stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine’s cession of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia and the freezing of the current frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to be a “concession,” since Russia illegally annexed the entirety of the four oblasts in 2022, even though Russian forces have still not seized the territory of all four regions. Russian officials have made frequent statements demonstrating the Kremlin’s maximalist demand that Ukraine cede the entirety of all four oblasts during negotiations.[9] The initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan called for Ukraine’s cessation of all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the freezing of the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, and subsequent US-Ukrainian proposals have called for the creation of a demilitarized zone or “free economic zone” in Donetsk Oblast.[10] The Kremlin explicitly rejected in December 2025 the Ukrainian proposal to establish a demilitarized zone in Donestk Oblast, and the Kremlin may be trying to present Russia as amenable to the so-called “concession” of freezing the line in southern Ukraine in order to prevent further US-Ukrainian discussions about a demilitarized or economic zone in unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.[11] Russian officials will likely continue efforts to present the demand that Ukraine give up all of Donetsk Oblast as a moderate position and a meaningful “concession” in order to extract concessions that would ultimately be strategically harmful to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that ceding the rest of Donetsk Oblast to Russia would be a strategic mistake, as Russia is unlikely to seize this territory quickly or easily but would then be in a more advantageous position to renew attacks against Ukraine in the future.[12]
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite terminals operating in Ukraine in order to counter Russia’s use of Starlink on drones. Musk stated on X (formerly Twitter) on February 1 that SpaceX, at Ukraine’s request, has taken “effective” steps to stop Russian forces’ use of Starlink and called on Ukrainian authorities to inform SpaceX about any necessary further measures.[13] Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated in response to Musk that SpaceX’s first steps have achieved ”real results” and that Ukraine and SpaceX are working on next steps.[14] Musk’s and Fedorov’s statements come after recent reports that Russian forces, including elements of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, are using Starlink terminals to extend the range of BM-35 strike drones and cheap Molniya-2 fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones to conduct mid-range drone strikes against the Ukrainian rear starting in late December 2025.[15] ISW continues to assess that these Russian strikes are an attempt to replicate prior Russian battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaigns against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that enabled recent Russian advances in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions.[16] Russian milbloggers claimed on February 1 that Russian drone operators started to experience Starlink signal blocking when flying drones at speeds of over 75 to 90 kilometers per hour.[17] The milbloggers noted that the restrictions have impacted Shahed-type, Molniya, and BM-35 strike drones and caused significant disruptions to Russian Starlink-enabled drones.[18] Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on January 31 that the Ukrainian MoD will continue to work with SpaceX and will collect information on Ukrainian military Starlink users in order to prevent the restrictions from affecting Ukrainian forces.[19]
Russia is building up military infrastructure near the Finnish border, likely as part of wider military expansion efforts that seek to prepare the Russian force for a potential future conflict with NATO. Finnish national broadcaster Yle published satellite images between June 2024 and October 2025 showing Russian construction at the Rybka military base in Petrozavodsk, Republic of Karelia (approximately 175 kilometers from the Finnish border).[20] Yle reported that the Soviet-era garrison area has been mostly abandoned since the early 2000s but that the 44th Army Corps (AC, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) will use the base. Yle reported that the Rybka military base already contains a large air base and equipment depot. Yle reported that satellite imagery from May and August 2025 shows that Russia is also building a new military town in Kandalaksha, Murmansk Oblast (approximately 115 kilometers from the Finnish border) for the Luptsche-Savino garrison, which Russia started to build in Winter 2024-2025 for a new artillery brigade and an engineering brigade. ISW has previously reported on the expansion of other Russian military infrastructure along the border with Finland.[21] Russia restructured the Western Military District (WMD) into the LMD and Moscow Military District (MMD) in 2024, likely in order to improve Russia’s strategic command along its northern border and to posture against NATO along the Finnish border.[22] The Russian military command also formed the 44th AC in the LMD in 2024 as part of these efforts.[23] Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have previously directly threatened Finland, including by applying language that Russia has used falsely justify its invasions of Ukraine to Finland.[24]
Belarus appears to be increasing the quantity and frequency of Belarusian balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported that Belarus launched “balloon-like” objects into Polish airspace on the night of January 31 to February 1 and noted that the balloons aimed to reconnoiter and test Polish air defense reactions.[25] Belarus has launched balloon-like objects into Polish airspace three times in the last four days (since January 7), and Lithuania reported a record high of 42 Belarusian balloons in its airspace on the night of January 27 to 28.[26] ISW continues to assess that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus, and Russia is likely using Russia is using airspace incursions of Poland and Lithuania from Belarus as part of its “Phase Zero” effort — the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[27]
Several unidentified drones flew over German military infrastructure on February 1. German outlet Bild reported on February 1 that roughly 23 drones flew above the Immelmann military airfield in Lower Saxony, Germany on February 1.[28] German authorities have not identified the actor responsible for the drone overflights as of this writing. German authorities previously identified Russia as a possible actor responsible for drone flights over Germany in 2025, however.[29]
Key Takeaways
- Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February 1, causing significant civilian casualties.
- The Kremlin continues to use issues unrelated to its war in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to give in to Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine.
- Insider reports continue to demonstrate that Russia is trying to portray itself to external audiences as a willing negotiator in order to gain control over all of Donetsk Oblast through diplomatic means.
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite terminals operating in Ukraine in order to counter Russia’s use of Starlink on drones.
- Russia is building up military infrastructure near the Finnish border, likely as part of wider military expansion efforts that seek to prepare the Russian force for a potential future conflict with NATO.
- Belarus appears to be increasing the quantity and frequency of Belarusian balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace.
- Several unidentified drones flew over German military infrastructure on February 1.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk