Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russia’s demands for Ukraine “remain unchanged” and to reject security guarantees for Ukraine. Medvedev gave an interview on February 1 to Reuters, Kremlin newswire TASS, and pro-war Russian milblogger and head of the WarGonzo social media military project Semyon Pegov.[1] Medvedev stated that Russian demands for ending the war in Ukraine “remain unchanged” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced these conditions during his June 2024 speech to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Medvedev also stated that Putin relayed these conditions to the United States at the August 2025 US-Russia Alaska Summit. Putin demanded in his June 2024 speech that Ukraine and NATO capitulate to Russia’s original war demands and cede the illegally annexed Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — including unoccupied areas of these regions.[2] Russia’s original war demands include Ukraine’s neutrality (the Kremlin’s ability to dictate Ukraine’s international alignment), demilitarization (reductions in the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and denazification (the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government). Medvedev also stated that Russia considers the “dismantling” of the Ukrainian government to be an “extremely important task” and that the current Ukrainian government “must disappear.” Medvedev questioned the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian government and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kremlin officials have repeatedly exploited the lack of clarity about the outcome of the 2025 Alaska Summit, including by claiming that the United States and Russia agreed to principles based on Putin’s June 2024 MFA speech during the summit.[3]
Medvedev explicitly rejected proposals from the British and French-led Coalition of the Willing to station foreign troops on Ukrainian territory as part of postwar security guarantees for Ukraine.[4] Medvedev recalled that Putin, Medvedev, and Lavrov have all publicly stated that Russia does not accept such proposals and would consider troops from NATO countries as “legitimate targets.” Medvedev also demanded that Russia receive security guarantees. The Kremlin originally demanded “security guarantees” in its December 2021 ultimatums to the United States and NATO, which amounted to the destruction of the current NATO alliance by calling for halting the deployment of forces or weapons systems to member states that joined NATO after 1997.[5] Medvedev likely deliberately participated in the three-way interview with Reuters, TASS, and Pegov in an effort to disseminate Russia’s demands across Russian domestic and ultranationalist audiences, English-speaking outlets, and international media.
Medvedev continued to use nuclear carrots and sticks, likely in an attempt to distract attention from and secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine. Medvedev stated in the interview that Russia’s proposal to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires on February 5, remains on the table for the United States to agree to.[6] Putin previously offered to adhere to the terms of New START for another year upon its expiration, but only if the United States does the same.[7] Medvedev claimed in the interview that the risk of a global conflict is high and that the “Doomsday Clock” is moving forward. Medvedev referenced Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, stating that “no one should have any doubts” about Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons if the fate of Russia is at stake. Medvedev’s mix of thinly veiled nuclear threats and comments offering to engage the United States on nuclear arms treaties aims to use issues unrelated to Russia’s war in Ukraine to push the United States into giving in to Russia’s demands on Ukraine — as ISW has long assessed.[8]
Medvedev implicitly threatened and accused Finland of dismantling Russian-Finnish relations. Medvedev claimed that Finland “wiped” out the positive Russian-Finnish relations that emerged after the Soviet Union collapsed. Medvedev issued a subtle threat, claiming that Finland has forgotten how the Soviet Union “crushed” Finland when it was a Nazi ally and that Finland should not joke about its relations with Russia as the 20th-century conflicts were not in Finland’s “favor.” Medvedev referenced Finland’s historical ties to the Soviet Union and Russia, claiming that Finland should “thank” Vladimir Lenin — likely referring to Lenin’s 1917 recognition of Finland’s independence. Putin and other Russian officials have previously threatened Finland, including by using language that mirrors Russia’s justifications for its invasion of Ukraine to Finland.[9] Russian officials’ narratives about Finland have long invoked historic Finnish-Russian ties and Finland’s history as a Nazi ally during the Second World War.[10] These threats come as Russia is expanding its military infrastructure along its border with Finland, likely as part of wider military expansion efforts that seek to prepare Russia for potential future conflict with NATO.[11] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains unlikely to conduct a full-scale invasion of Finland at this time and that Medvedev’s statements are likely part of the Kremlin’s long-term cognitive warfare campaign to create justifications for a possible conflict with NATO in the future.
Medvedev subtly threatened Russians who do not support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine and possibly against NATO. Medvedev responded to a question from TASS by claiming that Western states, particularly those in Europe, are Russia’s enemies who want to defeat and destroy Russia.[12] Medvedev directly compared the ongoing war against Ukraine to the Second World War, claiming that Russia, like the Soviet Union, is defending the state and the Russian people. Medvedev further claimed that those in Russia who are indifferent to Russian soldiers on the front, who are unwilling to help their own state, and who “lack basic patriotism” are Russia’s “internal enemies.” The Kremlin has often used the mythos of the Second World War to glorify the Russian military and unify the Russian people around the ongoing war effort in Ukraine.[13] Medvedev’s statements about external enemies and the Second World War aim to justify to the Russian population the sacrifices the Kremlin has been demanding of them and the need to maintain a war footing for the protracted war in Ukraine or even a possible conflict with NATO in the future. Medvedev’s statements about internal enemies likely aim to threaten those Russians who either oppose the war or the Kremlin itself, and to evoke memories of the Soviet-era “enemies of the people” to set a behavioral standard the Kremlin expects all Russians to adhere to. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is transforming Russia into a Soviet-style police state, likely in preparation for expected anti-war sentiment in the Russian population, and continued Kremlin discussion about alleged internal enemies aims to justify these increased repressions.[14][15]
Russian forces continue efforts to seize Lyman and subsequently launch an offensive on Slovyansk, but likely do not have the offensive capability to do so in the short-term, in part due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 2 that the main objective of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces in the Lyman direction is to reach the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the northeast, and that the Russian military command hopes to begin this offensive in May or June 2026.[16] Mashovets reported that Russian forces – namely elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army (CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]), 25th CAA (Central Military District [CMD]), and the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], MMD) — must first seize Lyman and push Ukrainian forces from the north (left) bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in the area. Mashovets assessed that the Russian military command aims to do so by mid-to-late Spring 2026. Mashovets stated that the current Russian offensive operations, including attacks with elements of the 25th CAA from the northwest and with elements of the 20th CAA from the east and northeast, aim to establish favorable positions for a future effort to envelop Lyman.
The Ukrainian government is working with SpaceX to prohibit all non-registered Starlink satellite terminals from operating in Ukraine as part of joint efforts to counter Russia’s use of Starlink to operate drones in Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported on February 2 that the Ukrainian government adopted a resolution to only allow officially registered and verified Starlink terminals to operate in Ukraine and to disconnect all other terminals.[27] Fedorov stated that Russian drones equipped with Starlink terminals fly at low altitudes, are resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW), and are controllable in real time at long distances. Fedorov noted that the Ukrainian military will register their Starlink terminals and that measures allowing only authorized Starlink terminals to operate in Ukraine will deprive Russian forces of technological advantages and safeguard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Fedorov did not provide an estimated timeframe on how long individual Ukrainians will have to register and verify their private Starlink terminals. The Ukrainian government has been working recently with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to counter Russia’s use of Starlink.[28]
Key Takeaways
- Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russia’s demands for Ukraine “remain unchanged” and to reject security guarantees for Ukraine.
- Medvedev continued to use nuclear carrots and sticks, likely in an attempt to distract attention from and secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine.
- Medvedev implicitly threatened and accused Finland of dismantling Russian-Finnish relations.
- Medvedev subtly threatened Russians who do not support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine and possibly against NATO.
- Russian forces continue efforts to seize Lyman and subsequently launch an offensive on Slovyansk, but likely do not have the offensive capability to do so in the short-term, in part due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk direction.
- ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are at least several months away from being able to begin a ground offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the north or east.
- The Ukrainian government is working with SpaceX to prohibit all non-registered Starlink satellite terminals from operating in Ukraine as part of joint efforts to counter Russia’s use of Starlink to operate drones in Ukraine.
- Belarus continues to increase the frequency of its balloon incursions into Polish airspace.
- Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.