Russia launched another massive strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on February 6 to 7 and specifically targeted substations that support Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 408 drones and 39 missiles against Ukraine overnight – the second Russian strike of over 400 projectiles since the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes between about January 29 and February 1.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 21 Kh-101 cruise missiles; two Zirkon/Onyx anti-ship missiles; 16 Kalibr cruise missiles; and 408 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, Italmas-type, and other drones — of which roughly 250 were Shaheds. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 382 drones and 24 missiles, that 13 missiles and 21 drones struck 19 locations, and that downed debris fell on three locations. Ukrainian officials reported that drones and missiles struck energy infrastructure, including thermal power plants (TPPs) and substations, in Volyn, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, and Vinnytsia oblasts.[2] Ukrainian Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal reported that Russian forces struck the 750 kV and 330 kV substations that form the backbone of Ukraine’s energy grid, the Burshtyn TPP in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, and the Dobrotvir TPP in Lviv Oblast.[3] Ukrainian state energy operator Ukrenergo reported that Russian forces struck key high-voltage substations that support the reactors at NPPs, forcing Ukraine to reduce its energy output and increasing the duration of emergency power outages across the country.[4] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes also left 600,000 subscribers without power in Lviv Oblast, completely cutting heating and water supply to Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.[5]
Russia used the temporary moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes to stockpile drones and missiles for devastating strikes on the nights of February 2 to 3 and February 6 to 7. The February 2 to 3 strike used 71 missiles and 450 drones during some of the coldest temperatures Ukraine has endured all winter.[6] The Kremlin has attempted to portray Russia’s adherence to the short energy infrastructure strikes moratorium as an indicator of Russia’s interest in good-faith negotiations.[7] The fact that Russia conducted two sets of strikes with over 400 projectiles within six days of the lapse of the energy strikes moratorium demonstrates the Kremlin’s determination to maximize the suffering of Ukrainian civilians and unwillingness to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations. Russia instead used the moratorium to its advantage, maximizing damage against Ukraine’s collapsing energy grid in the dead of winter. Russian forces have also modified their drones and missiles to inflict more damage, including by equipping Shahed drones with mines and cluster munitions, and such measures have disproportionately affected civilian and energy infrastructure.[8] Russia’s increasingly large strike packages continue to highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, both with US-made Patriot air defense systems that can effectively counter Russian ballistic missiles and other forms of air defense for a diverse, well-equipped air defense umbrella.[9]
The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to expedite the negotiations process and agree to a peace agreement while Russia is actively delaying negotiations and rejecting any agreement that does not amount to the complete capitulation of Ukraine. Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on February 6 that US and Ukrainian negotiators discussed a goal for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a peace deal by March 2026.[10] The sources stated that US officials called for Ukraine to hold a national referendum on a peace agreement, reportedly as soon as May 2026. The sources indicated that Ukrainian voters would vote on any proposed deal through a referendum and would simultaneously vote in national elections. One source stated that the United States is “in a hurry” to organize an election. Reuters noted that Ukrainian election authorities have projected that it would take roughly six months to change legislation and organize an election under the current conditions. The Kremlin has also repeatedly refused to commit to a ceasefire long enough to permit voting.[11] US pressure on Ukraine to plan for a vote on a peace agreement soon would be odd considering that the sides reportedly remain far apart on central issues and that the Kremlin continues to refuse compromises offered by both the United States and Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists on February 7 that Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed meeting in the United States, likely in Miami, Florida, in one week (around February 12).[12] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that ”there was no talk about” a meeting in the United States and responded ”no” when asked about whether it is possible to participate in another round of peace negotiations in the United States.[13] Russian officials have continuously rejected offers for trilateral negotiations and negotiations at the leadership level to end the war and have continuously set conditions to justify further rejections immediately around the February 4 to 5 Abu Dhabi talks.[14] The Kremlin continues to show no willingness to compromise for good-faith peace negotiations or any indication that it will accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.[15]
Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) First Deputy Head Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev is reportedly alive following a February 6 assassination attempt.[16] Russian state media outlet TASS reported on February 7 that Alekseyev regained consciousness after a surgery and that his injuries are no longer life-threatening.[17] A source close to the investigation claimed to Russian business outlet Kommersant that authorities detained two suspects in the assassination attempt, including the suspected shooter.[18]
Key Takeaways
- Russia launched another massive strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on February 6 to 7 and specifically targeted substations that support Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs).
- Russia used the temporary moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes to stockpile drones and missiles for devastating strikes on the nights of February 2 to 3 and February 6 to 7.
- The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to expedite the negotiations process and agree to a peace agreement while Russia is actively delaying negotiations and rejecting any agreement that does not amount to the complete capitulation of Ukraine.
- Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) First Deputy Head Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev is reportedly alive following a February 6 assassination attempt.
- Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.