Russian forces are continuing their cognitive warfare campaign that uses small-scale cross-border attacks in previously dormant frontline areas in northern Ukraine to try to convince the West that the frontlines in Ukraine are collapsing. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on February 8 that Russian forces seized Sydorivka (northwest of Sumy City on the international border).[1] A Russian milblogger claimed that the seizure is part of efforts to establish a “buffer zone” in northern Sumy Oblast and credited elements of the Russian 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) with allegedly seizing the settlement.[2] ISW has not observed visual evidence to confirm the Russian MoD’s claim. Sydorivka is just east of Komarivka, a previously dormant area of the front where Russian forces launched cross-border attacks in December 2025.[3] A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that the Russian military command plans to create more than 20 assault groups from elements of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (Russian Strategic Missile Forces [RVSN] and reportedly under the operational control of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces) to attack deeper into Sumy Oblast from Bila Bereza (northwest of Sydorivka on the international border) and Komarivka.[4] The milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 104th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (76th VDV Division) and 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD) will follow the RVSN troops to consolidate positions. ISW has previously observed reports that the Russian military command is misusing specialist RVSN personnel as assault troops in the Sumy direction.[5]
Russian milbloggers continue to claim that SpaceX’s recent block of unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine is hindering Russian combat operations in Ukraine. A Russian milblogger claimed on February 8 that Russian units at various, unspecified sectors of the front are experiencing communication issues after the block and need radio and satellite equipment donations.[11] Another Russian milblogger claimed that the block was “extremely unfortunate.”[12] The milblogger claimed that “wise” commanders long ago understood the dangers of Russian forces’ reliance on Starlinks and created alternative communication means, but that the block is still negatively impacting combat operations, as Russian forces so far have no equivalent to fully replace Starlink. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are conducting all communications “on the ground.” Russian milbloggers have been complaining about issues with Russian ground operations and tactical strikes since SpaceX worked with Ukrainian officials to shut down Russian troops’ access to Starlink within Ukraine on February 5.[13] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces will struggle to maintain their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign at the previously high intensity levels in the near-term unless Russian forces are able to find workarounds to the blocks or adapt new technological solutions to replace Starlink.[14]
Russian forces continue to integrate air-to-air capabilities onto their Shahed-type drones to ensure the drones evade Ukrainian air defenders and to undermine Ukraine’s air defense. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported on February 8 that a Ukrainian interceptor drone shot down a Russian Shahed-type drone equipped with R-60 air-to-air missiles that were facing backwards.[15] Russian forces previously equipped Shaheds with forward-facing R-60 missiles in order to destroy Ukrainian helicopters and tactical aircraft that hunt Shaheds.[16] The shift from forward- to backward-facing R-60s suggests that the intended purpose of the modified drone may have shifted. Russian forces were likely first using the drones with forward-facing R-60 missiles specifically to search for and then strike Ukrainian aircraft. Russian forces now appear to be using backward-facing missiles in order to defend the drone if it encounters a Ukrainian aircraft, but then allow the drone to threaten Ukrainian aircraft involved in air defense operations and to continue toward its original target.
Parts of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) have achieved self-sufficiency such that Ukraine can start exports to the West. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 8 that Ukraine is opening its military exports and will open 10 export centers in northern European states and the Baltic states in 2026.[17] Zelensky did not specify which weapons Ukraine will export, but stated that Ukraine will start to jointly produce Ukrainian drones in Germany in mid-February 2025 and that Ukraine and the United Kingdom (UK) have opened joint production lines in the UK. Ukraine began in 2023 to pursue its long-term objective of ensuring the self-sufficiency of its DIB such that Ukraine could be less reliant on foreign military provisions in the future.[18] Western security and financial aid to Ukraine in the past years helped the Ukrainian DIB in these endeavors, and ISW assessed in early 2024 that Ukraine would require considerable Western military assistance for several years before Ukraine achieved self-sufficiency. Ukrainian exports, as well as joint European-Ukrainian and US-Ukrainian production, are mutually beneficial, as the West can use Ukraine’s experience fighting a 21st-century war with an accelerated offense-defense technological cycle to bolster its defenses and own DIBs.
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian missile strikes in January 2026 damaged parts of Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 8 that previous Ukrainian strikes against the Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast damaged a technical facility that serviced intermediate-range ballistic missiles, an assembly building, and a logistics warehouse.[19] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against the Kapustin Yar site with Ukrainian-produced long-range weapons, including FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles, in January 2026.[20] Russian forces launched their November 2024 and January 2026 Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine from Kapustin Yar.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are continuing their cognitive warfare campaign that uses small-scale cross-border attacks in previously dormant frontline areas in northern Ukraine to try to convince the West that the frontlines in Ukraine are collapsing.
- Russian milbloggers continue to claim that SpaceX’s recent block of unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine is hindering Russian combat operations in Ukraine.
- Russian forces continue to integrate air-to-air capabilities onto their Shahed-type drones to ensure the drones evade Ukrainian air defenders and to undermine Ukraine’s air defense.
- Parts of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) have achieved self-sufficiency such that Ukraine can start exports to the West.
- The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian missile strikes in January 2026 damaged parts of Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.