Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s willingness to compromise ahead of trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17 to 18. Zelensky stated on February 14 that Ukraine is ready to hold elections as quickly as possible, provided a sustained ceasefire, and called for a two-month ceasefire and security guarantees in order to do so.[1] Zelensky noted that if a two-month ceasefire is not possible, then Ukraine at least needs “many days” to prepare for elections.[2] Zelensky stated that any security guarantees agreement must precede any war termination agreement.[3] Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to any future peace agreement that allows Russia to occupy parts of Ukraine. Concluding peace agreements ahead of security guarantees entails Ukrainian surrender of critical territory with no assurance of Ukraine receiving necessary guarantees against future Russian aggression.[4]
Russian officials continue to insist that the issues and terms impeding a peace agreement go beyond Russia’s territorial demands. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlyov, who often acts as a bullhorn for the Kremlin’s true diplomatic and military aims, reiterated on February 14 that Russia “will not be satisfied” with only Ukraine’s surrender of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, and that Russia must additionally achieve regime change in Kyiv to remove any allegedly “Russophobic” and neo-Nazi government.[5] Senior Kremlin officials have similarly recently claimed that post-war Ukraine must be “friendly” to Russia, implying that Russia will only be satisfied with a Ukraine led by a pro-Russian government that implements pro-Russian policies.[6] Kremlin officials have repeatedly rejected meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine and demonstrated their commitment to achieving Russia’s war goals militarily if it cannot do so diplomatically.[7] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio notably stated on February 14 that negotiations to end the war have “narrowed” to the “hardest questions to answer,” but that the United States is unsure if Russia is serious about ending the war.[8] Rubio stated that the United States does not know under what terms Russia is willing to end the war or whether the United States can find terms that are acceptable to Ukraine and to which Russia will also agree.
Russian forces continue to suffer disproportionately high casualties in return for marginal territorial gains. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte stated on February 13 that Russian forces are advancing at the “stilted speed of a garden snail,” yet suffered 35,000 deaths in December 2025 and 30,000 deaths in January 2026.[9] Rutte’s numbers largely cohere with data from the Ukrainian General Staff, which maintains that Russian forces suffered about 35,100 casualties in December and 31,680 casualties in January. ISW continues to assess that the Russian rate of advance, even at its relatively quicker tempo in late 2025, has been constrained to a footpace and comes at disproportionately high infantry casualty costs.[10] ISW has observed open-source evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced in or infiltrated through an estimated 462 square kilometers in December 2025 and roughly 364 square kilometers in January 2026 – suggesting that Russian forces suffered roughly 76 casualties per square kilometer seized or infiltrated through in December 2025 and 87 casualties per square kilometer seized or infiltrated through in January 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview published on February 13 that Russian forces have recently suffered 170 casualties for every kilometer of territory gained.[11] ISW’s calculations are based only on evidence observable in the open source, and it is unclear if Zelensky is referring only to territory that Russian forces control or is also including areas in which Russian forces have infiltrated but do not control. True Russian losses are very likely higher than what is confirmable from open sources. Russian forces have long suffered such a disproportionately high casualty rate, having suffered an average of 83 casualties per square kilometer gained in all of 2025.[12] The Russian rate of advance slowed in late December 2025 and January 2026, but Russian losses did not significantly decrease, showing how these slowing advances have come at an even greater cost.[13]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s willingness to compromise ahead of trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Geneva, Switzerland on February 17 to 18.
- Russian officials continue to insist that the issues and terms impeding a peace agreement go beyond Russia’s territorial demands.
- Russian forces continue to suffer disproportionately high casualties in return for marginal territorial gains.
- Ukraine’s and SpaceX’s efforts to shut off Russian forces’ access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine are reportedly disrupting Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies’ short- and mid-range drone strikes in the immediate term, as ISW recently forecasted.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, in the Borova and Slovyansk directions, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.