Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told AFP in an interview published on February 20 that Ukrainian forces have liberated 300 square kilometers of territory in an unspecified area of southern Ukraine.[1] Zelensky did not specify the timeframe or the exact locations of these recent Ukrainian advances, but AFP characterized Zelensky as suggesting that Ukrainian forces are “taking advantage” of the situation, following the recent SpaceX block on Russian forces’ usage of Starlink terminals, which supported such Ukrainian advances.
Available open source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces have liberated multiple settlements around Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border in recent weeks.[2] ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces have liberated at least 168.9 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine since January 1, 2026. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger published a map on February 20 acknowledging that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Novopavlivka.[3] ISW has not observed visual evidence in 2026 to assess that Russian forces maintain positions in northern Novopavlivka, and geolocated footage published on February 20 shows Ukrainian forces operating in eastern Novopavlivka.[4] Geolocated footage published on February 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Ternove (southeast of Oleksandrivka).[5] A Ukrainian military source reported on February 18 that Ukrainian forces advanced to northwestern Verbove, indicating that Ukrainian forces likely liberated Orestopil, Vovche, Novooleksandrivka, and Hai (all southeast of Oleksandrivka) on recent prior dates.[6] ISW will continue to refine its control of terrain assessment as more information becomes available
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial and energy assets on the night of February 20 to 21, including with Ukrainian-produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a FP-5 Flamingo missile strike against the Russian state-owned Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Votkinsk, Udmurtia Republic (roughly 1230 kilometers from the international border).[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Votkinsk Plant produces Yars-series intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched Bulava ballistic missiles (SLBM), 9M723-1 type Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 9-S-7760 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles. Russian opposition outlet Astra and a Ukrainian open-source intelligence project reported that the plant also produces Topol-M missile systems and Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM).[19] Geolocated footage published on February 20 shows smoke rising from the Votkinsk Plant.[20] Udmurtia Republic Governor Aleksandr Brechalov acknowledged that Ukrainian drones struck and damaged an unspecified facility in Udmurtia.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Neftegorsk gas processing plant in Samara Oblast (roughly 850 kilometers from the international border), causing fires.[22] Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi reported that the Neftegorsk gas processing plant processes associated petroleum gas and has an annual processing capacity of 0.7-0.75 billion cubic meters.[23] Heat anomalies detected by the NASA FIRMS/VIIRS sensors indicate that there were fires at the Neftegorsk gas processing plant on February 21.[24] Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev acknowledged that Ukrainian drones struck two unspecified industrial sites in Samara Oblast.[25] Geolocated footage published on February 21 shows fires and smoke plumes at the Elektrovypriamitel-ZSP plant in Saransk, Mordovia Republic, after a reported explosion.[26] It is unclear if the reported explosion was the result of a Ukrainian strike.
Ukrainian forces continued their mid-to-long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Ukraine on the night of February 20 to 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Project 22460 Okhotnik border patrol vessels near occupied Inkerman, Crimea (roughly 237 kilometers from the frontline) and two Be-12 amphibious aircraft at the Yevpatoria aircraft repair plant in occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea (165 kilometers from the frontline).[27] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian Tornado multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) system near occupied Astrakhanka, Zaporizhia Oblast (roughly 61 kilometers from the frontline); a Russian materiel and technical depot in occupied Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast (roughly ten kilometers from the frontline); a fuel and lubricants warehouse in occupied Donetsk City (roughly 45 kilometers from the frontline); and a Russian production and maintenance workshop near occupied Nova Karakuba, Donetsk Oblast (roughly 65 kilometers from the frontline).[28] The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) posted geolocated footage on February 21 showing Ukrainian forces striking a Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Division drone operators’ concentration point in occupied Selydove, Donetsk Oblast (roughly 17 kilometers from the frontline).[29] ISW has observed a notable increase in Ukrainian mid-range strikes against Russian military assets inoccupied Ukraine since December 2025, as Ukrainian forces undertake their own battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign to parallel Russia’s BAI campaign that enabled Russian advances in Fall 2025.[30]
Russia has been using Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian drone operations against Ukraine and incursions into NATO airspace. Pro-Ukrainian hacker groups announced on February 20 that the hackers conducted a six-month cyber operation using dozens of hacked Russian military personnel accounts to gain access to Russian drone monitoring systems.[31] The hacker groups reported that Russian forces used civilian infrastructure in Belarus, including cellular towers, to lay out routes and provide stable signals for Russian drone strikes against targets in northern and western Ukraine, including energy and railway infrastructure. The hacker groups reported that Russian strikes overnight on September 9 to 10, 2025, during which Russian drones crossed into NATO airspace in Poland through Belarus, were actually a test of Belarusian civilian and cellular infrastructure for Russian drone strikes.[32] The hacker groups noted that Russian forces used incursions into NATO airspace to plan strikes against logistics routes in both Ukraine and Poland to cut flows of Western military assistance to Ukraine. These operations are likely part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign, which it has been intensifying destabilize Europe and undermine NATO cohesion in preparation for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[33] ISW continues to assess that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and that Belarus is a cobelligerent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.[34]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces continue to hold defensive lines and push back Russian advances in southern Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to restrict Internet usage and set informational conditions to block Telegram in Russia.
- Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial and energy assets on the night of February 20 to 21, including with Ukrainian-produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles.
- Ukrainian forces continued their mid-to-long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Ukraine on the night of February 20 to 21.
- Russia has been using Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian drone operations against Ukraine and incursions into NATO airspace.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Novopavlivka, and Oleksandrivka.