Institute for the Study of War: after two years fighting, Russia captures Pokrovsk, a town of 60,000

SW has not observed evidence of Ukrainian forces operating within Pokrovsk since late January 2025, indicating that Russian forces seized the entire town on a prior date. Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the seizure of Pokrovsk and to make further operationally significant advances, demonstrating that the Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent or inevitable. ISW last observed Ukrainian forces operating on January 28, and therefore assesses that Russian forces likely completed the capture of the settlement sometime in the past few weeks.[1] The Russian campaign for Pokrovsk, a town with a pre-war population of 60,000, has been underway for almost two full years. Russian forces started their drive toward Pokrovsk in February 2024 after seizing Avdiivka (roughly 39 kilometers southeast of Pokrovsk) and began setting conditions to take Pokrovsk through direct frontal assaults in March 2024.[2] Russian forces did not seize most of Pokrovsk until December 2025 — 21 months after starting frontal assaults on the town. Russian forces continued to fight to seize most of Myrnohrad (just east of Pokrovsk) for another month after that, with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claiming on December 28 that Russian forces seized the town.[3] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces fully seized Pokrovsk in early December 2025 and heavily emphasized that Pokrovsk was a critical step in accomplishing Russia’s strategic battlefield objectives.[4] Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on December 9 that the seizure of Pokrovsk was “crucial” for Russian efforts to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast, and Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in his annual Direct Line address on December 19 that the seizure “opened up” multiple directions of advance for the Russian military.[5] Pokrovsk was operationally significant given its use as an important logistics hub, but Russian strikes denied Ukrainian forces the ability to fully leverage the town for logistics as early as July 2025.[6] Pokrovsk had long ceased to be an operationally significant town by the time Russian forces intensified their push to capture the town in Winter 2025.

The seizure of Pokrovsk has also not “opened up” major Russian advances to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast as Kremlin officials previously alleged. Russian forces have not significantly advanced northwest or west from Pokrovsk since December 2025 and have yet to even seize Hryshyne (just two kilometers northwest of Pokrovsk). Russian gains past Pokrovsk have not yet set operational conditions to support future offensive efforts towards the Fortress Belt, which ISW assesses will be Russia’s main operational effort in the coming months. Russia’s slow and costly seizure of Pokrovsk does not portend Russian advances elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast — Pokrovsk is a much smaller town both in area and population than Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which make up the northern tip of Ukraine’s heavily fortified Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces’ long and costly battle to take Pokrovsk and their subsequent inability to significantly advance beyond the town refute the Kremlin’s repeated claims that Russian forces will be able to easily and swiftly seize the Fortress Belt.

The Kremlin appears to have been successful in enacting a reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing the decision-making of the British- and French-led Coalition of the Willing. Diplomatic and defense sources told TheTelegraph on February 24 that some members of the Coalition of the Willing have privately stated that their contributions of troops to guarantee the security of post-war Ukraine are dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin granting permission for such deployments.[7] A senior diplomatic source stated that Kremlin statements about Russian forces specifically targeting foreign troop deployments in Ukraine mean that the coalition “need[s] to send a different kind of force.” Another diplomatic source assessed that European states have “essentially handed Putin a veto” over the coalition’s plans. Divisions within the Coalition of the Willing are likely the result of a monthslong coordinated Kremlin reflexive control campaign — a method by which Russia attempts to make an opponent freely arrive at a pre-determined decision — that aimed to prevent the West from agreeing on security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected Western security guarantees for Ukraine, stating that foreign troops in Ukraine would be “legitimate targets” for Russian forces.[8] The Kremlin has also been using a baseless Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claim that the United Kingdom (UK) and France were giving Ukraine a “dirty bomb” or nuclear weapon to disrupt the ongoing discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine.[9] Kremlin officials continued on February 25 to reiterate the SVR’s allegations, claiming that alleged nuclear weapons transfers to Ukraine would threaten Russian security and calling for retaliatory Russian responses that aim to invoke fear in the UK and France.[10] Meaningful security guarantees, including European deterrence forces, will be a vital part of any future agreement that ensures a lasting peace in Ukraine. Security guarantees without significant deterrence measures will not prevent Russia from renewing its aggression against Ukraine at a time of its choosing and are particularly important to justify any territorial concessions Ukraine may be forced to accept. Russia has been explicitly rejecting any meaningful security guarantees as they impede the Kremlin’s ability to achieve its longstanding strategic goal of gaining control over all of Ukraine. Any sort of Russian veto would undermine the foundations upon which the current US-led negotiations are built to ensure a lasting peace.

Key Takeaways

1. ISW has not observed evidence of Ukrainian forces operating within Pokrovsk since late January 2025, indicating that Russian forces seized the entire town on a prior date. Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the seizure of Pokrovsk and to make further operationally significant advances, demonstrating that the Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent or inevitable.
2. The Kremlin appears to have been successful in enacting a reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing the decision-making of the British- and French-led Coalition of the Willing.
3. Insider reports continue to indicate that Russia is uninterested in meaningful peace negotiations and is preparing for a protracted war.
4. The Kremlin is also reportedly purposely delaying negotiations to shape the battlefield to Russia’s benefit.
5. The Kremlin continues to manufacture justifications for a future Telegram ban.
6. The Kremlin is also increasing its efforts to control the Russian population’s ability to access Western-origin content on the internet.
7. Ukraine continues to expand joint production in Europe with its Western partners.
8. Ukraine’s Western partners continued to provide military aid to Ukraine on February 24.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, in the Dobropillya tactical area, near Pokrovsk, and near Hulyaipole.