Institute for the Study of War: another massive Russian missile and drone strike

Russia launched another massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of February 25 to 26, primarily targeting energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 420 drones and 39 missiles against Ukraine overnight – the fourth Russian strike of over 400 projectiles in February 2026.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 11 Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-300 surface-to-air missiles; 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles; two Zirkon/Onyx anti-ship missiles; two Kh-69 cruise missiles; and 420 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, Italmas-type, and other drones, of which roughly 280 were Shaheds. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 374 drones and 32 missiles, that five missiles and 46 drones struck 32 locations, and that downed debris fell on 15 locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces struck gas infrastructure in Poltava Oblast, electrical substations in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, and caused additional damage in Chernihiv, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv oblasts and Kyiv City.[2] Ukraine’s largest energy company, DTEK, reported that Russian overnight strikes targeted a large substation of DTEK subsidiary Odesa Electric Networks, significantly damaging the substation.[3] DTEK noted that Russian strikes have inflicted ”colossal destruction” on 45 percent of DTEK Odesa’s large substations. Ukrainian First Deputy Minister of Energy Artem Nekrasov reported that Russian overnight strikes left consumers in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Poltava, and Kharkiv oblasts without electricity.[4]

The US and Ukraine continue bilateral engagements as part of ongoing peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump spoke by phone on February 25 to discuss ongoing negotiations and preparation for upcoming bilateral and trilateral talks.[9] US and Ukrainian delegations also met in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 26, led by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner, and Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, respectively.[10] Umerov stated ahead of the talks that parties planned to discuss the proposed prosperity package for Ukraine, mechanisms for economic support and recovery, investment tools, and preparations for the next round of trilateral talks, which will reportedly take place in early March 2026.[11]

Ukraine’s and SpaceX’s efforts to shut off Russian forces’ access to Starlink terminals continues to disrupt Russian drone operations across the frontline. Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps Commander Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky told the Independent on February 26 that Starlink outages have cut the effectiveness of Russia’s drone campaign by roughly 20 to 40 percent in the last two weeks.[12] The Independent noted that Ukrainian forces in the 3rd Army Corps’ area of responsibility (AoR), which is roughly 1,300 kilometers long, have retaken territory near Pokrovsk, north of Lyman, and near Hulyaipole since the Starlink block on February 1.[13] Biletsky stated that Russian forces will likely partially regain communication capabilities within a month or two through other means, such as satellite communication, but that Russian forces will not likely be able to fully restore the level of efficiency they had with Starlink for the next three to five years. Russian forces had been using Starlink terminals both for frontline communication and to extend drone ranges to strike further into the Ukrainian rear and generate battlefield air interdiction (BAI) effects.[14] ISW has observed evidence over the last several weeks that the Starlink block has prevented Russian forces from conducting tactical and mid-range strikes and ground operations at the same tempo and depth as they had been in prior weeks.[15] Ukrainian forces have also exploited recent Starlink blocks to launch localized counterattacks along the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and liberate significant territory in southern Ukraine.[16] Russian forces are finding workarounds to the block, including by resorting to local SIM cards and relay drones, but these mechanisms have thus far not completely compensated for the loss of Starlink.[17]

A Russian fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone reached the outskirts of Kharkiv City for the first time on February 25. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on February 25 that a Russian fiber-optic FPV drone reached Kyivskyi Raion on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv City for the first time.[22] The Russian Anvar Spetsnaz Detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 Anvar volunteer detachment) published geolocated footage on February 25 showing a Russian fiber-optic drone striking a vehicle traveling along the M-03 highway on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv City, indicating that Russian forces flew another fiber-optic FPV drone as far as roughly 21 kilometers from the international border.[23] Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov noted on February 25 that Russian forces would have had to find a suitable and long ground corridor through which to fly the drone, as the area is densely populated and contains obstacles that could sever fiber-optic wires in flight.[24] Russian forces are now able to conduct fiber-optic FPV strikes against Kharkiv City itself, and such strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area could foreshadow a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Such increases in fiber-optic FPV range will also allow Russian forces to harass civilian populations in Kharkiv City, similarly to how Russian forces have been using tactical drones to make life near the frontline untenable for civilians.[25]

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) reportedly issued a warning to Chinese citizens in Russia about a law compelling service in the Russian military. Hong Kong-based media outlet South China Morning Post reported on February 26 that the PRC Consulate in Russia called on Chinese citizens living in Russia to “take note of” a new Russian law requiring male permanent residents under the age of 65 to serve at least one year with the Russian military.[35] The South China Morning Post referenced a Russian November 2025 law that requires foreign citizens and stateless men aged 18 to 65 who are “legally capable” to serve in the Russian military for at least one year to apply for Russian citizenship or a residency permit.[36] The November 2025 Russian law grants exceptions to Belarusian citizens, men who provide proof that they have already fulfilled the service requirement in the Russian military, and men who provide documentation from Russian military enlistment and recruitment centers that they are unfit for military service. Russian state media notably did not publicize these aspects of the decree at the time.[37] The PRC consulate reportedly did not directly warn PRC citizens against serving in the Russian military but called on PRC citizens in Russia to “make prudent decisions” to “ensure lawful residency status in Russia.”[38] The PRC consulate’s warning is an indicator that the PRC may be concerned that Russia will coerce its citizens living in Russia into military service through this law.Russia has conducted raids against migrants with expired permits or who are undocumented and coerced them into military service under threat of criminal charges or deportation.[39] Forcing foreigners to serve in the Russian military as a condition for a residency permit or citizenship is a significant escalation in its recruitment mechanisms. ISW has recently observed indicators that the Kremlin is preparing for rolling call-ups of its involuntary reserve to mitigate manpower shortages from Russia’s slowing recruitment rates.[40] The PRC consulate’s statement may be a supporting indicator that Russia is ready to conduct involuntary reserve call-ups and other coercive force generation mechanisms that could affect its citizens living in Russia.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia launched another massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of February 25 to 26, primarily targeting energy infrastructure.
2. The US and Ukraine continue bilateral engagements as part of ongoing peace negotiations.
3. Ukraine’s and SpaceX’s efforts to shut off Russian forces’ access to Starlink terminals continues to disrupt Russian drone operations across the frontline.
4. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) remains a critical enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
5. A Russian fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone reached the outskirts of Kharkiv City for the first time on February 25.
6. Russia is reportedly deploying elements of at least one newly re-formed military unit to the Kupyansk direction.
7. The PRC reportedly issued a warning to Chinese citizens in Russia about a law compelling service in the Russian military.
8. The PRC consulate’s warning is an indicator that the PRC may be concerned that Russia will coerce its citizens living in Russia into military service through this law.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, near Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.