Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to posture himself as a peacemaker and potential mediator between Iran and the Gulf States amid the ongoing US-Israeli operation against Iran. Putin spoke with several Gulf State leaders on March 2, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman al Saud, Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad al Thani, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan.[1] Putin emphasized in each of these phone conversations Russia’s readiness to contribute to stabilizing the situation surrounding Iran and the Gulf states and the need to urgently resolve the conflict through diplomatic means. Putin noted how Russia has done much in the past to facilitate a peaceful resolution to situations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and finding mutually acceptable compromises. Putin is trying to balance maintaining relationships with partners, including Iran, while conducting outreach to the Gulf States and positioning himself as a mediator in response to rising military escalations in the Middle East. Putin similarly attempted to position himself as a mediator between Iran and Gulf countries following the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[2]
Iranian threats against vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are causing significant spikes in global oil prices, which if sustained, could reverse over a year of declining Russian oil revenues. Brent crude oil futures prices peaked at $82.37 per barrel on March 2 up from $73 at market close on February 27 just prior to joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran.[3] Brent crude oil futures price per barrel was trading at around $78 at time of writing.[4] Reported Iranian strikes against several US- and UK-linked oil tankers and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threats against vessels transiting through the Strait has led vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf to drop by at least 33 percent as of March 1.[5] Oil prices will likely continue to surge in coming days in response to the situation in the Middle East, with varying reports predicting a spike to prices between $90 to $100 per barrel.[6] Russia has historically relied on oil and gas revenues to fund its war in Ukraine, but revenues steadily fell throughout 2025, and Russian authorities are expecting oil and gas revenues to continue to fall in 2026.[7] Russia has had to resort to other means of generating revenue, such as selling gold reserves and raising the value added tax (VAT), to compensate for declining oil and gas revenues.[8] Russian business outlet Kommersant claimed on March 1 that Russia may also increase oil production following easing OPEC+ caps as of March 1 by three percent to 10.9 million barrels per day in 2026 after oil production fell to 9.1 million barrels per day in 2025, likely in part due to the impacts of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.[9] Sustained high oil prices could keep Russia economically afloat and allow Russia to fund its war in Ukraine in the medium term. It is unlikely, however, that Iran can successfully and indefinitely impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz long enough for Russia to reap long-term benefits from the current surge in oil prices.[10]
US allies and partners in the Middle East should learn from Ukraine’s years of experience defending against almost nightly large-scale Russian missile and drone strike packages, including some comprised in large part of Iranian-origin attack drones. United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on March 1 that Ukrainian and British experts will work together to help UK partners in the Middle East shoot down Iranian drones.[11] Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin responded to Starmer on March 2, stating that Ukraine is ready to help and share its experience.[12] Kamyshin noted that over 10 Ukrainian companies are currently producing interceptor systems and that Ukrainian forces have an interception rate of about 90 percent against Russian Shahed drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted on March 1 that Gulf states have not been able to down all the Shahed drones and ballistic missiles that Iran has launched against them in recent days even though these countries have superior numbers and types of air defense systems compared to Ukraine’s air defenses.[13] Zelensky stated on March 2 that Ukraine has not received any direct requests from the UK, other partners, or representatives of Middle Eastern states to involve Ukrainian experts in efforts to shoot down Iranian drones, however.[14] Zelensky later suggested to Bloomberg on March 2 that Ukraine could send its best drone interceptor operators to help Middle Eastern states if those states ask Russia to implement a short-term ceasefire in Ukraine.[15] Zelensky specified that the hypothetical ceasefire could range from two weeks to two months.
Key Takeaways
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to posture himself as a peacemaker and potential mediator between Iran and the Gulf States amid the ongoing US-Israeli operation against Iran.
- Iranian threats against vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are causing significant spikes in global oil prices which, if sustained, could reverse over a year of declining Russian oil revenues.
- US allies and partners in the Middle East should learn from Ukraine’s years of experience defending against almost nightly large-scale Russian missile and drone strike packages, including some comprised in large part of Iranian-origin attack drones.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia will shift its long-range missile and drone strikes target set to include Ukrainian logistics and water infrastructure going into Spring 2026.
- Russian forces advanced in the Slovyansk and Pokrovsk directions.