Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine forces advance in Dnipropetrovsk province 

Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction. Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions from late January 2026 to about March 10 in two separate drives.[1] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 16 that Ukrainian forces made additional tactical penetrations within the past week (since about March 9), including: entering Sichneve (east of Oleksandrivka), reaching the eastern outskirts of Voskresenska (east of Sichneve), advancing toward Novoivanivka (southeast of Oleksandrivka), entering and advancing into southeastern Novomykolaivka (north of Novoivanivka), and seizing Rybne (southwest of Novomykolaivka).[2] Mashovets’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces likely also liberated Sichneve and Vorone (southwest of Sichneve). Mashovets assessed that elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps [AC], Eastern Military District [EMD]) operating east of the Vovcha River will likely have to withdraw to the Voskresenka-Maliivka line (northeast of Oleksandrivka) to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks.[3] Mashovets noted that Ukrainian forces advanced to within two kilometers of the Hulyaipole-Velyka Novosilka road from the north, preventing Russian forces from using the road to conduct logistics or transport equipment even though Ukrainian forces have not yet advanced across it.[4] Mashovets reported that Russian forces operating in the Oleksandrivka direction have switched to conducting an active defense, rather than active offensive operations, to constrain Ukrainian advances, which aligns with the reduced tempo of Russian ground operations in the area in recent weeks.[5]

Mashovets reported that Russian forces still hold the Berezove area and Krasnohirske (both southeast of Oleksandrivka).[6] Mashovets’ statements are likely a reflection of the dispersed and intermingled lines and positions on the battlefield in Ukraine, particularly in the Oleksandrivka direction, and are more likely refinements to ISW’s control of terrain (COT) assessment and not reflective of new Russian advances.

Ukrainian forces are also advancing in counterattacks northwest of Hulyaipole. Mashovets reported that Ukrainian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Hirke (northwest of Hulyaipole), the western outskirts of Staroukrainka (east of Hirke), and that several Ukrainian assault groups have entered Svyatopetrivka (northeast of Staroukrainka).[7] Mashovets noted that the elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA, EMD), which have been fighting northwest and west of Hulyaipole, have not been able to completely restore the battlefield situation prior to these Ukrainian counterattacks. Mashovets noted that Ukrainian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions have not yet sufficiently threatened the rear of the Russian forces operating in the Hulyaipole direction such that these Russian forces must stop conducting offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction, however. Mashovets noted that Russian forces are maintaining their tempo of ground activity but that effective Ukrainian defenses west of Hulyaipole have slowed Russian advances to less than 1.2 to 1.5 kilometers per week.[8] Continued Ukrainian advances in the Oleksandrivka direction will likely threaten the rear of the 5th CAA elements attempting to advance west from Hulyaipole to support a push toward Orikhiv from the east and may compel the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to shift the focus of the 5th CAA to defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks rather than on offensive operations.

Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are forcing Russia to redeploy forces and means from other areas of the frontline and likely from operational level reserves. ISW previously observed indications that Russian forces had redeployed elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and 55th Naval Infantry Division (both Pacific Fleet) from the Dobropillya tactical area to the Hulyaipole direction as of late February 2026.[9] Mashovets reported that Russian forces have also redeployed elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and 120th Naval Infantry Division to the 36th CAA’s (EMD) area of responsibility in the Oleksandrivka direction.[10] ISW has observed elements of the 120th Naval Infantry Division operating in the Dobropillya tactical area as recently as March 11.[11] Mashovets reported that Russian forces may also pull elements of the 69th Separate Cover Brigade and 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both 35th CAA, EMD) from the operational reserve to defend in the Oleksandrivka direction. Russian forces may have already pulled elements from its operational reserve to defend in the Oleksandrivka direction, as a Russian milblogger claimed on March 16 that drone operators of the Russian 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment (29th CAA, EMD) are striking Ukrainian forces near Hai (southeast of Oleksandrivka).[12] ISW has not observed evidence of the 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment operating on the battlefield since August 2025, suggesting that the Russian military command had previously withdrawn this unit and may have been holding it in reserve for future offensive operations.[13] Continued Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will likely continue to force Russian forces to choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere on the frontline, and may spoil the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continues to reject any negotiated settlement that fails to concede to all of Russia’s demands, even if it concedes to Russia’s territorial demands. Lavrov reiterated at a March 16 joint press conference with Kenyan Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi that Russia refuses to end the war even if Ukraine “recogniz[es] the realities ‘on the ground’” and fully cedes Donbas to Russia.[14] Lavrov insisted that the current democratically elected Ukrainian government is a “root cause” of the war and referred to potential post-war European peacekeeping troops that would deploy to Ukrainian-held territory as “occupying forces.” Lavrov’s depiction of European troops that would deploy to Ukrainian-held territory with Ukrainian permission, but presumably without Russian permission, demonstrates the Russian attempt to assert its control over sovereign Ukrainian territory by implying that the territory to which Ukrainian authorities would invite European troops is not part of Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly used the rhetoric of “root causes” to reiterate its maximalist demands, including stipulations on NATO expansion, Ukrainian neutrality, “demilitarization” (reductions in the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and “denazification” (the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government).[15] The Kremlin has continued to publicly insist that it is unwilling to deviate from these demands even during trilateral negotiations with the United States and Ukraine.[16]

Key Takeaways

1. Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction.
2. Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are forcing Russia to redeploy forces and means from other areas of the frontline and likely from operational level reserves.
3. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continues to reject any negotiated settlement that fails to concede to all of Russia’s demands even if it concedes to Russia’s territorial demands.
4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued orders prohibiting Russian soldiers from using Telegram.
5. The Kremlin continues throttling Telegram domestically, setting conditions to block it completely.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, near Pokrovsk, and near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
7. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure. Russian forces launched 211 drones against Ukraine, including in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts.