A senior Ukrainian military official forecasted that Russia will begin using mobilized personnel on the battlefield in Ukraine on April 1. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn told Ukrainian outlet Interfax Ukraine on March 21 that Russia will begin involving all mobilized personnel currently in Crimea in combat operations in Ukraine starting April 1.[1] Voloshyn stated that mobilized personnel will replace wounded personnel and replenish the Russian 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet), elements of which are currently operating in the Kursk direction and in the “Crimea” operational-tactical group. Russia may be resorting to deploying mobilized personnel as Russian forces continue to incur heavy losses on the battlefield while struggling to recruit enough new volunteers to replace its losses.[2] Voloshyn added that the Russian military command plans to reorganize its 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade into a naval infantry division, which would be the tenth new maneuver division that Russia has formed since 2022.[3] The Russian military command most recently reorganized its 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) into the 55th Naval Infantry Division and its 336th Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltic Fleet) into the 120th Naval Infantry Division as of December 2025.[4]
Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine continue to create operational and strategic effects against Russian forces going into the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Voloshyn stated that the Russian military command is transferring elements of the Russian 55th and 120th naval infantry divisions to the 29th Combined Arms Army’s (CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) area of responsibility (AoR) in the Oleksandrivka and northern Hulyaipole directions.[5] Voloshyn noted that these forces could then participate in combat operations starting in April 2026. ISW recently observed reports that elements of the 55th Naval Infantry Division (Pacific Fleet) and 120th Naval Infantry Division redeployed from the Dobropillya tactical area to the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions as of late February 2026 and mid-March 2026 respectively, likely in response to the successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.[6] Voloshyn stated that the Russian 58th CAA (Southern Military District [SMD]), reportedly operating in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the Kherson direction, will have to replenish elements of its 19th and 42nd motorized rifle divisions with reserve elements of the Moscow Military District (MMD).[7] Russian forces have reportedly already been deploying forces from their operational reserve simply to support ongoing combat operations and likely laterally redeployed elite VDV and naval infantry units from Donetsk Oblast to the southern frontline in early March 2026.[8] Ukrainian forces’ dual tactical efforts to halt and push back Russian gains in southern Ukraine are having cascading effects on other sectors of the front, forcing Russian forces to choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere on the frontline.[9] Russia’s redeployments to southern Ukraine in response to Ukrainian counterattacks are likely disrupting the Russian military command’s plans for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt. Russian forces have previously failed to conduct simultaneous offensives in different sectors of the front, and it is unlikely that they will be able to make significant efforts to advance in the Fortress Belt area while contending with Ukraine’s recent successes in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions.[10]
Key Takeaways
- A senior Ukrainian military official forecasted that Russia will begin using mobilized personnel on the battlefield in Ukraine on April 1.
- Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine continue to create operational and strategic effects against Russian forces going into the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
- Likely Belarusian balloons recently landed in Poland, possibly as part of Russia’s ongoing use of Belarus in its “Phase Zero” effort, setting conditions for a potential future war with NATO.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
- Ukrainian forces struck military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 139 drones against Ukraine.