— Kursk counteroffensive: The Ukrainian military lost significant territory in the Russian region of Kursk, threatening to deprive Kyiv of key leverage in talks to end the war.
— Moscow’s air war: Russia launched massive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s new Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft helped defend against the Kremlin’s strikes.
— The importance of US assistance: Washington’s decision to halt intelligence sharing appears to have impeded Ukraine’s combat capabilities.
— Recruitment woes: Ukraine launched a new recruitment program targeting 18-to-24-year-olds.
1. Battlefield Assessment
Last week the Ukrainian military lost substantial territory in the Kursk region of Russia. Russia’s counteroffensive forced Ukraine to withdraw from natural defensive barriers along rivers in the embattled region. The loss of Kursk would deprive Kyiv of key political leverage as the Trump administration pushes for talks to end the war.
North Korean forces played a significant tactical role, capturing important defensive positions on higher ground in Kurilovka. Previous editions of this report warned that large-scale Russian offensive actions with North Korean assistance would be formidable.
Since Russia breached Ukraine’s defenses, Kyiv’s forces have attempted a controlled withdrawal along the R-200 road. Russian and North Korean formations fought to disrupt this maneuver and envelop the Ukrainian elements.
Military withdrawals can be just as demanding as offensive combat operations. Ukraine’s attempted withdrawal is no exception. It aims to secure its rear area and maintain layered fallback positions while conducting delaying actions and tactical counteroffensives to disguise the extent of its retreat. If Ukraine cannot pull off this difficult task, Russian and North Korean forces could envelop its combat formations. This would leave Sumy Oblast in northeast Ukraine militarily vulnerable.
Russia has established fire control over Ukraine’s logistics routes and lines of communication, making Ukraine’s challenge even more daunting. The Kremlin’s forces have been able to disrupt Ukraine’s efforts to move and regroup. The Russian military has employed long-range strike assets and heavy aerial bombs to destroy bridges as it rushes to disrupt Ukraine’s fallback routes.
While the situation in Kursk worsens, Ukraine has taken the offensive near Toretsk. Its forces have made tactical territorial gains there despite exposure to heavy strikes from Russian drones. Pokrovsk also remains a flashpoint.
Both sides continue to make advances in drone-on-drone warfare. Ukraine has begun integrating shotguns into its first-person-view drones to destroy other unmanned aerial vehicles. Meanwhile Russian aerial drones now target Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs).
The Ukrainian military employs these UGVs in logistics roles to move supplies through artillery attacks and anti-tank minefields. Russia’s hunt for Ukraine’s logistics drones is the latest innovation in the ongoing move-countermove cycle of drone warfare.
2. Russia Launches Overwhelming Air Strikes
Last week Russian forces hit Ukraine with massive barrages of Shahed drones. These attacks aimed to soften Ukraine’s defenses for follow-on salvos of cruise missiles, North Korean and Russian ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles modified for land-attack roles, and Kalibr naval cruise missiles. Russia targeted Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure.
The Mirage 2000 fighters that the Ukrainian Air Force recently received from France took part in the defensive aerial operations against the strikes. Ukraine’s F-16 combat aircraft also defended its skies.
The Russian attacks inflicted casualties and heavy damage on residential buildings in Poltava Oblast. Despite heavy Western sanctions, Russia possesses an abundant supply of domestically produced Shahed drones and air-launched cruise missiles.
Unverified press reports indicate that Washington’s decision to pause intelligence sharing has impeded Ukraine’s ability to proliferate critical air strike warnings to its citizens. Other unconfirmed reports suggest that the United States has stopped sharing operational data to support Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops (but has continued to provide data for defensive operations). The same reports indicate that Starlink, a subsidiary of Elon Musk’s aerospace company SpaceX, continues to provide satellite internet services in Ukraine.
3. Ukraine Enlists Young Fighters amid Manpower Shortages
To replenish its thinning ranks, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has introduced a new model of voluntary military service. The recruitment program, dubbed Contract 18–24, offers financial incentives and North Atlantic Treaty Organization–standard military training to Ukrainians between 18 and 24 who are willing to enlist for one year. Soldiers who volunteer under this new force-generation framework will man the Ukrainian military’s 10th Mountain Assault Brigade.
Volunteers will be compensated generously. Contracts offer one million Ukrainian hryvnia (just over $24,000), a zero-interest mortgage, and free medical care. The agreement also provides a one-year exemption from mobilization and the right to travel abroad following the completion of one year of service.