Ukraine Military Situation Report | July 9
Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the Russia-Ukraine War.
Executive Summary
— Russia’s air war: Russia launched its largest drone and missile salvo of the war. The attack targeted western Ukraine and caused the Polish Air Force to scramble fighter jets.
— Ukraine makes gains in Sumy: Ukraine is pursuing a tactical counteroffensive in Sumy Oblast. The effort has found some early success.
— Battlefield assessment: The Russian military retained an offensive footing across most of the theater of operations.
1. Battlefield Assessment
Last week Ukraine continued to see heavy fighting that produced only minimal territorial changes. Clashes intensified in the direction of Kostiantynivka, around Velyka Novosilka, and in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Fighting also continued in Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and in the Orikhiv sector.
Large-scale maneuver warfare has taken a back seat in Ukraine. Small-unit assault tactics, often involving motorcycles and first-person-view (FPV) drones, have become the dominant offensive concept of operations (CONOPS). Defensively, combatants increasingly rely on hardened strongpoints featuring heavily mined and artillery-laden kill boxes. Ukrainian sources report that Russian drone operators and robotic systems have become more efficient, a trend that is particularly troubling for Ukrainian defensive formations in the country’s east.
The front lines in Sumy Oblast are an area of optimism for Kyiv. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a tactical counteroffensive in the region and have recently begun to recapture previously occupied territory. Open-source indicators suggest that the Russian push in Sumy, following the collapse of Ukrainian lines in the Russian region of Kursk, is finally stalling after multiple offensive waves. Nonetheless, South Korea’s intelligence services have indicated that North Korea, a key Russian ally in the war, may soon commit a corps-sized force to the conflict. Sumy remains the most likely location for this deployment.
2. Russia Launches the Largest Drone Salvo of the War as the US Prepares to Boost Ukraine’s Air Defenses
Last week Moscow executed the largest drone and missile attack of its invasion campaign. Russia bombarded Ukraine with over 700 Shahed drones, alongside Iskander missiles and Khinzal aeroballistic missiles released by MiG-31 interceptor aircraft.
The attack centered on the city of Lutsk, just over 50 miles from Ukraine’s border with Poland—a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In reaction to the strike, the Polish Air Force scrambled fighter jets to defend the nation’s airspace. Ukrainian electronic warfare systems and air defenses intercepted most of the hostile drones.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is gearing up to send additional Patriot strategic air and missile defense systems to Kyiv. The Patriot boasts a successful combat record against Russian threats, even Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles with high-hypersonic homing speeds. As Russia has boosted its production of ballistic missiles by more than 60 percent, Ukraine will need additional Patriot batteries and interceptors to keep its infrastructure and population centers safe.