Ukraine Military Situation Report | September 3
Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the Russia-Ukraine War.
Executive Summary
— Battlefield assessment: Ukraine’s elite units achieved tactical successes in the vital Pokrovsk sector. But Kyiv still faces a severe manpower disadvantage.
— Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign: Ukrainian drones hit a Russian S-400 air defense site, causing alarm among pro-Moscow observers.
— Russia targets Western assets in Ukraine: Russia sought to deter Ukraine’s supporters by striking the United Kingdom and European Union embassies and a drone factory owned by Turkish firm Baykar.
1. Battlefield Assessment
Last week the Russian military continued its high-tempo combat operations across the battlespace. Toretsk, Kupiansk, and Novopavlivka saw heightened combat activity, while Russian forces also targeted Lyman, a key rail hub. But once again the embattled Ukrainian garrison town of Pokrovsk, in Donetsk Oblast, bore the brunt of Russia’s assault.
Open-source visual intelligence highlighted the resilience of the Ukrainian military, which conducted rapid tactical counterattacks in Pokrovsk to disrupt the Russian offensive. In at least two skirmishes, elements from Ukraine’s 425th Assault Regiment, which includes Ukraine’s first motorcycle operations units and specializes in blitz assaults and rear-area operations, engaged Russian units. This elite regiment, nicknamed Skala, has already captured the village of Udachne, just west of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile other Ukrainian units conducted successful counteroffensive actions in the nearby village of Novoekonomichne, while the elite 93rd Brigade fought near Dobropillya to maintain Ukraine’s lines of communication to the Pokrovsk garrison.
Despite these tactical successes, Ukraine continues to face challenges at the strategic level thanks to Russia’s advantages in force-on-force and force-to-terrain ratios. Last week declassified intelligence from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence revealed that Russia has been redirecting formations from Kharkiv, Sumy, and other sectors to fight in Donetsk.
Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, continued to conduct long-range strikes deep behind Russian lines. The drone warfare element of the Ukrainian intelligence service struck a Russian S-400 strategic air defense site and a helicopter grouping in occupied Crimea. Russian Telegram channels expressed a chorus of concern about Ukraine’s successful targeting of Russia’s radar architecture. The Ukrainian Air Force also conducted brief sorties that exposed other gaps in Russia’s air defenses.
2. Russia Targets Western Assets in Ukraine
On August 28 Russia launched drone and missile attacks against multiple high-profile targets in Ukraine, including the diplomatic missions of the United Kingdom and the European Union in Kyiv and a drone plant operated by Turkish arms manufacturer Baykar. The strikes, which killed multiple Ukrainian civilians, were among Russia’s largest salvos since the outset of its full-scale invasion.
The strike package included North Korean KN-23 tactical ballistic missiles and Iran-designed Shahed drones. In total, Russia launched 629 munitions, mostly missiles and drones, at Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defenses have performed well throughout the war. But they could not fully intercept such an overwhelming aerial assault.
By targeting assets that belong to some of Ukraine’s main supporters, the Kremlin likely wishes to discourage further military aid. Both the EU and the UK summoned Russian envoys to protest the deliberate strikes on their diplomatic buildings and personnel. Yet the only way to effectively deter further Russian bombardments is to ensure Ukraine has the offensive weapons necessary to impose retaliatory costs on Moscow.