Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces.Ukrainian military personnel operating in Donetsk Oblast told the Washington Post in an article published on October 12 that Starlink terminals have increasingly appeared at Russian frontline positions and that the illicitly obtained technology is helping Russian forces fix persisting issues with combat coordination and communications while improving the precision of Russian tactical fires. The commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon operating near Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) told the Washington Post that Ukrainian reconnaissance drones started widely recording Starlink terminals at Russian positions in the area in September 2024 and that the arrival of the terminals corresponded with a decrease in intercepted Russian radio transmissions in which Russian soldiers relayed incomplete or incorrect battlefield information to their commanders. Another Ukrainian soldier reportedly stated that Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction appear to have enough Starlink terminals to give individual tactical groups their own terminal. Ukrainian soldiers reportedly credited recent Russian battlefield gains, including the Russian seizure of Vuhledar in late September 2024, partially to the Russian use of Starlink terminals. Russian forces have mainly relied on radio and other insecure communication technologies for organizing combat coordination and relaying targeting information to fire and strike elements, and Russian forces have yet to field modern battlefield management systems at scale to organize their TRSC as many Ukrainian units have. Ukrainian access to Starlink has afforded Ukrainian forces a technological edge to conduct more effective combat coordination and field new developments in the TRSC ahead of Russian forces, and Russian forces are likely trying to degrade these Ukrainian advantages by scaling up their own use of the terminals. Ukraine is currently pursuing a strategy to offset Russian manpower and materiel advantages through technological innovation and adaptation, and technological parity between Ukrainian and Russian forces will undermine this effort.
A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theater on October 12.ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34. A Russian milblogger closely affiliated with Russian aviation published a tribute to a lost Su-34 aircraft on October 12 but did not provide additional details about the incident. A prominent Russian milblogger also confirmed that the Su-34 crew died but claimed that this loss was not related to Ukrainian activity, and other milbloggers speculated that the Su-34 could have crashed as a result of technical malfunction or human error. A Russian Telegram channel, which claims to be managed by Russian airborne (VDV) officers and staff of the Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet presumably shot down the Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft while the Su-34 was dropping FAB glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPC) at a distance of about 50 kilometers from the frontline. The Telegram channel later responded to the claims that the Su-34 could have crashed due to technical malfunction or human error, noting that such hypothetical scenarios still highlight a problem with the wear and tear of Russian aircraft, unprofessionalism among pilots, and pilot exhaustion. The Telegram channel accused Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers of lying about the Su-34 crash and preventing Russian forces from developing plans to counter the Ukrainian F-16 threat. The Telegram channel claimed in March 2024 that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor filed a complaint against the channel for “discrediting” a Russian military commander. ISW cannot independently confirm the Telegram channel’s claim, but if confirmed, this incident would mark the first Ukrainian shootdown of a Russian manned aircraft with a Western-provided F-16 fighter jet.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces.
- A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theater on October 12, but ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34.
- Unknown actors opened fire on personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs’ (MVD) Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia on the night of October 11.
- Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, in part thanks to large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
- Russian forces are reportedly struggling to conduct effective counterbattery fires.
(For full report:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12-2024)