Russian forces are currently unable to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on December 27 that Russia had fulfilled its plan to recruit 403,000 people in 2025 on December 3 and will surpass its set goal by the end of the year.[1] Budanov stated that Russia can continue recruitment for a “long time” given its population and financial resources and has plans to increase its mobilization to 409,000 people in 2026. ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is setting conditions for involuntary partial reserve call-ups to sustain its military manpower and possibly to try to establish a strategic reserve in the face of its continuing high casualty rate in Ukraine.[2] ISW’s assessments have focused on challenges Russian recruiters appear to face in attracting voluntary recruits at costs the Kremlin is willing to pay, an issue that Budanov did not address in this interview. Budanov stated that Russia has not yet developed a strategic reserve to its desired capabilities as it “constantly” activates its operational reserve to support ongoing combat operations in Ukraine.[3] Russian forces currently maintain a rate of incoming personnel sufficient to replace losses but have been unable to build large enough reserves to be able to flood a sector of the front without redeploying personnel from other areas. The requirement to draw reserves from some sectors of the line to focus on operationally significant undertakings often leaves Russia’s flanks undermanned in ways that create vulnerabilities, sometimes allowing Ukrainian forces to counterattack and retake land. Ukrainian forces were recently able to retake land north of Hulyaipole during Russia’s push into central Hulyaipole, and Ukraine liberated a significant portion of the Russian penetration in the Dobropillya direction (northwest of Pokrovsk) during Russia’s offensive on Pokrovsk in early November.[4] The Ukrainian liberation of much of Kupyansk also benefited from the concentration of Russian forces elsewhere on the line and the lack of ready Russian operational reserves in the area. Russian forces are currently unable to open a new front and cannot expand recent limited cross-border attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.[5] Constraints on Russia’s available military manpower, in contrast with its overall numerical superiority in population, are a severe constraint on Russian operations and will likely remain so in the coming year.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukrainian critical infrastructure overnight on December 26 and 27, primarily targeting Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 519 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other strike drones, of which about 300 were Shahed-type drones, from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and occupied Hvardiivske, Crimea.[8] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 10 Iskander-M ballistic/Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from Ryazan and Bryansk oblasts; seven Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles from Rostov Oblast and the Black Sea; 21 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Vologda Oblast; and two Kh-22 cruise missiles from the airspace over the Black Sea.[9] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 474 drones, six Iskander-M/Kinzhal missiles, four Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles, and 19 Kh-101 cruise missiles as of 1300 local time. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 10 Russian missiles and 25 drones struck 30 locations; that debris fell at 16 locations; that one missile did not reach its target; and that Ukrainian forces are clarifying information that 15 drones were “locally lost” (likely referring to Ukrainian electronic warfare [EW] interference). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials stated that Russian strikes primarily targeted energy and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.[10] Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported that Russian strikes left nearly 600,000 Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast residents without power, and Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo reported that Russian strikes caused power outages in Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts.[11] Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz reported that Russian forces targeted Naftogaz’s thermal power plant (TPP) and gas production facilities with Shahed drones.[12] Kyiv City officials reported that the strikes damaged residential and civilian infrastructure in seven raions of the city, killed one person, and injured 32.[13] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces targeted industrial and residential infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in one person being trapped under rubble of a destroyed building in Vyshhorod and one death in Bila Tserkva.[14] Cherkasy Oblast officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down six missiles and 21 drones over the region and that Russian forces damaged at least 123 buildings in Uman, of which nine were completely destroyed.[15] The Odesa Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces struck industrial and port infrastructure in the region, damaging equipment for grain transport.[16]
A high-ranking Kremlin official explicitly stated that Russia will not deviate from its war demands “one bit.”[17] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on December 26 that Russia will not retreat from its positions, goals, and objectives and emphasized that the Russian leadership has affirmed this position “every day.” Zakharova noted that current US-Russian talks reflect the understandings that the Kremlin claims were reached at the Alaska Summit in August 2025. Zakharova also specifically called US-Russian discussions “contacts,” stating that “some call it a negotiation process” but “others call it contacts,” supporting ISW’s previous assessment that the Kremlin sees its “offers” as ultimata and does not see itself participating in an actual negotiations process.[18] Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky stated on December 26 that several provisions in the publicly available US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan are “a priori unacceptable” and called on the United States to adhere to the “spirit of Anchorage” in order to achieve real progress to end the war.[19] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 26 to CNN that Ukraine ceding the rest of Donetsk Oblast to Russia “could contribute significantly” to a peace deal — implying that such a Ukrainian concession would not be sufficient for Russia to end its war and effectively rejecting the key point of the 20-point peace plan on freezing the current frontline.[20] No public agreements emerged from the Alaska Summit and US President Donald Trump stated at the time that the parties had not reached a deal.[21] Russian officials subsequently claimed that the Alaska Summit agreed to principles based on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 2024 speech to the Russian MFA, in which Putin demanded the capitulation to Russia’s original war demands of both Ukraine and NATO before the start of negotiations.[22]
There is ample evidence to indicate that Ukrainian forces have liberated most of Kupyansk, however. Geolocated footage published on December 16, 20, and 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced along the P-07 Kupyansk-Shevchenkove highway and the P-79 Kupyansk-Chuhuiv highway in central Kupyansk.[27] ISW has observed ample geolocated footage in recent weeks indicating Ukrainian advances near and within Kupyansk — in line with statements from Ukrainian officials about Ukrainian successes in the area.[28] Russian milbloggers, including some who have traditionally been hesitant to criticize the Russian MoD, have engaged in an unusual discourse acknowledging Ukraine’s successes and aggressively blaming the MoD for lying about Russian advances.[29] Select Russian milbloggers have tried to downplay or write off Ukrainian successes in the Kupyansk direction, which other milbloggers stated was “manipulative” and diverting attention away from the main problem at hand — the systemic culture of lying in the Russian military.[30] The Russian MoD is likely now doubling down on its efforts to cover up its failures in Kupyansk in order to not weaken Russia’s position in the ongoing peace talks with the United States. The scale of available open-source evidence of Ukrainian advances in the Kupyansk direction, coupled with the uncharacteristically high number of corroborating reports from Russian sources who do not typically discuss Ukrainian battlefield successes, seriously undermine the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort that aims to paint a Russian military victory as inevitable and Ukrainian defenses on the verge of collapse.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with Western partners ahead of his December 28 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Florida. Zelensky told journalists on December 27 that he will stop in Canada on December 27 to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.[31] Zelensky stated that European leaders will join his meeting with Carney virtually to discuss the details of the peace plan documents Zelensky will discuss with Trump.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are currently unable to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year.
- Russian forces conducted another large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukrainian critical infrastructure overnight on December 26 and 27, primarily targeting Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.
- A high-ranking Kremlin official explicitly stated that Russia will not deviate from its war demands “one bit.”
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is intensifying its efforts to cover up recent Russian failures in Kupyansk amid ongoing widespread criticism from Russian milbloggers.
- There is ample evidence to indicate that Ukrainian forces have liberated most of Kupyansk, however.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with Western partners ahead of his December 28 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Florida.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.