Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iran’s foreign minister will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, claiming that the US strikes are a violation of the UN Charter and that the UN Security Council is obliged to respond, while urging officials to return to diplomatic channels.[1]Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that that the world will descend into chaos if countries are allowed to interpret the right to self-defense in the UN Charter as they wish.[2] Lavrov claimed that the US strikes marked a new, dangerous escalation during a phone call with Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on June 22.[3] CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Presidential Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev claimed on June 22 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is en route to Moscow and will meet with Putin on June 23.[4] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded to the US strike in social media posts, including on his English-language channels, on June 22 by claiming that US President Donald Trump has started a new war.[5]Medvedev also claimed that the United States failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, that Iran will continue to work towards the production of nuclear weapons, and that several unspecified countries are ready to “directly supply” Iran with nuclear warheads. The Kremlin typically leverages Medvedev to amplify narratives intended to stoke panic and fear among Western decisionmakers, particularly through nuclear saber rattling.[6] Medvedev’s veiled threats thus do not represent a significant rhetorical inflection. ISW continues to assess that Russia is constrained in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine and has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures for the time being, showcasing the immediate limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship.[7]
Russia’s intensified force generation efforts appear to be generating a reserve force that Russia will be able to leverage in Ukraine or against NATO in the future, despite current limitations on Russia’s offensive capacity in Ukraine. Syrskyi stated on June 22 that the Russian military has approximately 695,000 troops stationed in Ukraine (including Russia’s operational reserves) and that Russia has 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades (totaling roughly 121,000 troops) in its strategic reserve.[22] ISW previously noted that recent Kremlin statements indicate that the Russian military may be generating enough forces to replace personnel losses and reinforce the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite taking significant casualties in Ukraine.[23] Syrskyi’s statements suggest that Russia is also recruiting enough forces to establish reserves not currently committed to combat, although it remains unclear if these forces are truly committable throughout the theater or if Russia intends to use the forces in a specific priority sector. Russian forces are unlikely to commit this entire reserve to the frontline in Ukraine in the near future, however. Russian forces already appear to have manpower advantage in their priority frontline areas and are mainly struggling with overcoming the 15-20 kilometer-wide contested “gray zone” that Russian and Ukrainian drone operations have created — something that a significant influx of manpower is unlikely to help address.
Russia may intend to withhold most of these forces from combat in Ukraine in preparation for a future war with a NATO member state. Syrskyi noted that Russia is preparing for a protracted war of attrition and that Russia will try to “exhaust” Ukraine with manpower advantage.[24] Syrskyi noted that Ukraine is maintaining defensive operations and conducting counterattacks in vulnerable areas of the frontline. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha reported on June 13 that Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russia has started preparing strategic reserves, likely to use in combat operations “not only in Ukraine.”[25] ISW previously assessed that the Russian military may be prioritizing recruitment as part of longer-term efforts to build out a post-war strategic reserve for a potential future conflict with NATO.[26] The Russian military command will likely continue to build up this reserve to use in the future against Ukraine or NATO if Russia can maintain force generation rates sufficient to replace losses in Ukraine while also building out this reserve.[27]
The Kremlin continues to promote rhetoric designed to undermine Ukrainian legitimacy and sovereignty, demonstrating its steadfast commitment to the complete destruction of Ukraine.Russian President Vladimir Putin implied on June 22 that Ukraine was merely a construct created by Vladimir Lenin and a continuation of the Bolshevik policy on “indigenization.”[28] Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky echoed Putin’s sentiment by stating that the Soviet Union’s decision to transfer control of Crimea Oblast from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954 was not a “reunification,” as “there was no Ukraine, there was no statehood.”[29] These statements ignore the fact that Russia committed to respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including by recognizing Crimea as part of Ukraine, in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine’s return of Soviet nuclear weapons remaining in Ukraine after the USSR’s collapse.[30]Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to a question on June 22 as to why Putin often speaks about Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity as a “coup” by stating that this was the precursor to the war in Ukraine and that the West installed an illegitimate pro-Western government during this time.[31] Peskov underscored the claim that the resolution of the war in Ukraine must address the results of the “coup,” which Peskov characterized as a “root cause” of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peskov notably ignores that then-President Viktor Yanukovych fled Ukraine during the revolution, the Ukrainian parliament legally voted to remove Yanukovych, and that Ukraine held free and fair presidential elections in mid-2014.[32] ISW has reported extensively on the Kremlin’s weaponization of the phrase “root cause” to allude to the unacceptable demands for regime change in Ukraine and altering of NATO’s open-door policy.[33] The Kremlin’s ongoing rhetorical campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine’s legitimacy and sovereignty while continuing to call for the replacement of the current Ukrainian government further emphasizes that Russia maintains its maximalist goal of conquering Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
- Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iran’s foreign minister will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.
- Iran’s possible decision to close the Strait of Hormuz will cause a significant spike in global oil prices, which would greatly economically and financially benefit Russia by reversing months of declining Russian oil revenue and allowing Russia to continue to finance its war against Ukraine in the medium term.
- Russian forces have continued to pursue long-standing operational objectives on the battlefield in Ukraine throughout Spring and Summer 2025 and will likely remain committed to these objectives for the coming months.
- Russia’s intensified force generation efforts appear to be generating a reserve force that Russia will be able to leverage in Ukraine or against NATO in the future, despite current limitations on Russia’s offensive capacity in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin continues to promote rhetoric designed to undermine Ukrainian legitimacy and sovereignty, demonstrating its steadfast commitment to the complete destruction of Ukraine.
- Kremlin officials are leveraging the Russian education system to indoctrinate children into the mythos of the Soviet Union’s role in the Second World War and create a centralized state ideology that will shape generations in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine, likely to justify a protracted war in Ukraine and a future military conflict against the West.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy oblast. Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka.