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July 26, 2025

Institute for the Study of War: another Russian missile and drone attack against Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of July 25 to 26 and appear to be increasingly integrating missiles into overnight strike packages after mainly relying on drones in Spring and early Summer 2025. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on July 26 that Russian forces launched 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts, Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea; eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai and Voronezh and Rostov oblasts; and seven Kh-59/69 guided missiles from the airspace over Belgorod Oblast and occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 208 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed and suppressed 183 unspecified drones and 17 unspecified missiles and that 25 drones and 10 drones struck nine unspecified locations in Ukraine. 

The Russian military has used a denser concentration of missiles in recent strikes and ISW has observed various reports indicating that the Russian defense industry is increasing its missile and drone production capabilities.[2] Russia’s increasing missile and drone production will likely allow Russia to continue conducting increasingly larger strikes against Ukraine during Fall 2025, and ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue.[3] Increasingly large Russian strike packages highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly with US-made Patriot air defense systems that can effectively counter Russian ballistic missile threats.

Russia is increasingly targeting densely populated cities as part of a cognitive warfare effort to weaken Ukrainian resolve and to undermine Ukraine’s long-term defense capacity. Kharkiv Oblast and City officials reported on July 26 that Russia targeted the city with four guided glide bombs (KABs), two ballistic missiles, and 15 Shahed-type drones, injuring civilians and first responders.[4] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Dnipro City officials reported on July 26 that Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Dnipro City, killing and injuring civilians and damaging multi-story residential buildings and industrial enterprises.[5] A Russian milblogger claimed on July 26 that Russian forces launched 100 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drones and up to 15 Iskander missiles against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and 40 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drones against Kharkiv City.[6] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces targeted the Dnipropetrovsk Electromechanical Plant in Yelyzavetivka (northwest of Dnipro City) and the HARTRON-ARKOS research and production enterprise in Kharkiv City, suggesting that Russian forces used over half of their 208 drones and 27 missiles to target two specific areas.

Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide critical air defense and military assistance to Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė announced on July 26 that Lithuania plans to allocate up to 30 million euros (roughly $35 million) to purchase Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine.[7] Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksii Makeiev stated on July 25 that Germany is preparing to send an additional IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine. Germany is also prepared to work with Ukrainian manufacturers to produce additional air defense systems.[8] German defense company HENSOLDT announced on July 24 that it received an order worth over 340 million euros (roughly $399 million) to provide Ukraine with TRML-4D and SPEXER radar systems for air defense needs.[9] The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DCSA) announced on July 24 that the US State Department approved a Foreign Military Sale (FMS) of $150 million to Ukraine to enhance Ukrainian capabilities for maintenance, repair, and overhaul of the M109 155mm self-propelled howitzer.[10]

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of July 25 to 26 and appear to be increasingly integrating missiles into overnight strike packages after mainly relying on drones in Spring and early Summer 2025.
  • Russia is increasingly targeting densely populated cities as part of a cognitive warfare effort to weaken Ukrainian resolve and to undermine Ukraine’s long-term defense capacity.
  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide critical air defense and military assistance to Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Velykyi Burluk and Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.